Risk of Ruin

The story of Long Term Capital Management as told by LTCM partner Eric Rosenfeld. Eric earned a PhD from MIT, then taught at Harvard Business School, then became a trader at Salomon, then was a founding partner of LTCM.Resources:HBS Study on LTCM dividendEric's talk at MIT in 2009Michael Lewis article on LTCMWhen Genius Failed, Roger LowensteinFollow the show on Twitter: @halfkellyEmail: riskofruinpod@gmail.comWeb: halfkelly.com

Former poker player turned fund manager, David Orr, discusses evolving his investment strategy from value bias to shorting value traps. Topics include transitioning from poker to stocks, meme stock phenomenon, navigating stock investing complexity, successful long bets, adaptive investment approaches, using Twitter for market insights, and the path to success in investing.

Mark DeRosa, Zack White, and Rufus Peabody. The story a group of friends from Appalachian State that went on to team up with an econ grad from Yale. They started playing casino games and eventually would go on to bet the max at sports books all over Las Vegas.Follow Zack White on Twitter.Follow Mark DeRosa on Twitter.Follow Rufus Peabody on Twitter.Rufus's betting analytics startup: Unabated. 

Mark DeRosa, Zack White, and Rufus Peabody. The story a group of friends from Appalachian State that went on to team up with an econ grad from Yale. They started playing casino games and eventually would go on to bet the max at sports books all over Las Vegas.Follow Zack White on Twitter.Follow Mark DeRosa on Twitter.Follow Rufus Peabody on Twitter.Rufus's betting analytics startup: Unabated. 

Jeff Ma was a member of the MIT Blackjack Team. He told his story to the writer Ben Mezrich, who wrote a book titled "Bringing Down the House." The book was later made into the movie "21" which starred Kevin Spacey, Kate Bosworth, and Jim Sturgess.In addition to blackjack, Jeff talks about his career in tech where he has focused on using data and analytics to create value.Note: an earlier upload contained a claim that the Patriots were caught filming opponent practices. That has been corrected in the episode. They were accused of that, but they dispute it, and there was no evidence found.Links: The Bet the Process Podcasthttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bet-the-process/id1291010585Follow Jeff on Twitter:https://twitter.com/jeffmaRisk of Ruin Substack:https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly 

Kyle Boddy is the founder of Driveline Baseball, which promises data driven performance training. He is best known for training pitchers in baseball. Prior to his career in sports Kyle was a professional gambler. On this episode he tells stories about exploiting online casino bonuses, as well as shuffle tracking, and playing poker.Driveline Baseball: https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/Follow Kyle on Twitter: https://twitter.com/drivelinekyleBlackjack Shuffle Tracker's Cookbook: https://www.amazon.com/Blackjack-Shuffle-Trackers-Cookbook-Arnold/dp/B001CH9S0IBeyond Coupons: https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/beyondcouponsbjfo.pdfThe Risk of Ruin Newsletter: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=substack_profileEmail the show: risk of ruin pod @ gmailFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

Andrew "Bert" Black is a co-founder of Betfair, which is the world's largest betting exchange. He recounts his life in gambling, coming up with the idea for Betfair, and how they managed to win the P2P betting war in the early 2000s. Bert's horse farm: https://www.chasemorefarm.co.uk/Bert's Twitter:  https://twitter.com/berttheboldEmail the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.comFollow us on Twitter: @halfkelly

Jason Strasser is the co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Caption Partners. While in college Jason became a high stakes poker player and was making $100k/month before he left competitive poker for Wall Street. Today he generates his edge trading options, looking for one-off events where the volatility of the options are mispriced by algorithms.Follow Jason on Twitter: https://twitter.com/strassa2Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

Evan Tindell is a former poker player and now is the CIO of Bireme Capital. He talks about how he got into the market, and also his value investing based process for finding investments.Follow Evan on Twitter:https://twitter.com/evantindellBireme Capital Blog Post on Meta:https://www.biremecapital.com/blog/pounding-the-table-on-metaRisk of Ruin Podcast Newsletter:https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/Email the show risk of ruin pod at gmail.Follow the show on Twitter:https://twitter.com/halfkelly

In 2022 Elon Musk signed an agreement to purchase Twitter. Then all hell broke loose. This episode is about that merger, the investors that traded it, and the most valuable Twitter follow to come out of the saga.Guests:Chris DeMuth - Rangeley Capitalhttps://twitter.com/ChrisDeMuthJrEvan Tindell - Bireme Capitalhttps://twitter.com/evantindellChance, Editor in Chief of The Chancery Dailyhttps://twitter.com/chancery_dailyMedia Clips Used:Tesla 3rd Quarter Earnings Callhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_SOWBDCQnMDavid Faber, CNBChttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycx4b9-2nFUYahoo News, Biden Administration Reviewing Twitter Dealhttps://www.yahoo.com/video/u-weighs-security-review-musks-010913575.htmlCarolyn Berger Appearance on CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/07/13/twitter-is-in-a-very-strong-position-to-be-on-the-winning-side-says-ret-delaware-supreme-court-justice.htmlElon Musk Sold Zip2https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9mczdODqzoPeter Thiel Comments on Elonhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y11uX8X6iz4Tesla Shareholder Meetinghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49e7LrxS3FQ&feature=emb_titleSEC Sues Musk Over Funding Secured Tweetshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjqp7LTb2B4&t=56s