Risk of Ruin Big. Chunky. Changes.
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Jun 23, 2025 Citrini, the brains behind Citrini Research, is revolutionizing thematic investment with his sharp market insights. He dives into the art of crafting investment theses and how understanding human behavior can lead to better predictions. He shares his emotional rollercoaster with Super Micro Computer and emphasizes the significance of long-term perspectives. Discussions also cover the impact of GLP-1 drugs on markets and the dynamic nature of creating effective stock baskets, all while advocating for transparency through the Citrindex.
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John's SMCI Trading Journey
- John Reeder shares his experience trading SMCI, buying early and selling in stages as the stock soared over 6x in less than a year.
- He reveals mixed feelings about selling to others who profited after his exit, showing personal conflict despite clear gains.
Failure Leads to Thematic Investing
- Citrini learned thematic investing through failure and reflection after large losses in trading.
- He found he made the most money during unexpected market changes and started focusing on big, chunky trends to capitalize on.
Cognitive Biases Breed Complacency
- Market complacency arises from cognitive biases like anchoring, recency bias, and 'what you see is all there is.'
- This complacency causes markets to miss major events like the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.