Risk of Ruin

Explore the thrilling ups and downs of a gambler’s journey, from losing bets to mastering strategies like Closing Line Value and exploiting VIP promotions. Delve into the ethical dilemmas of sports betting and the psychological tactics gamblers use to cope with financial losses. Hear candid stories of navigating a complex landscape filled with market manipulation, emotional struggles, and the pursuit of strategic advantage. This is a raw look at the fine line between calculated risk and the challenges of responsible gambling.

Dive into the wild world of advantage players as they unravel secrets of beating casino games, from automatic roulette wheels to innovative slot strategies. Hear personal stories shaped by the Black Friday poker shutdown and the chaotic dynamics of teamwork in gambling. Discover how unconventional thinking guides problem-solving and how new sweepstakes casinos thrived during the pandemic. With anecdotes about mastering roulette and navigating the psychology of gambling, this episode balances risk with the thrilling game of chance.

Dive into the chaotic world of political betting with a seasoned trader who shares his intriguing journey from poker to prediction markets. Hear about high-stakes bets, including the thrill of backing Kamala Harris and the tumultuous experience of betting against Trump. Discover the mysterious 'French Whale' and the impact of biases on betting decisions, revealing how political loyalties influence market behaviors. The emotional rollercoaster of navigating this unpredictable landscape offers insightful lessons on risk-taking and strategic thinking.

Matt, a blogger in the credit card space, discusses advanced strategies in credit card arbitrage. Topics covered include the value of American Express cards, exploiting discrepancies for profit, credit card hacking risks, automating tasks for earnings, exploring manufactured spend, and the importance of collaboration and being an empiricist.

Professional sports bettors share their journey from casino advantage players to logistics providers in gambling, facing huge losses, exploring sports betting, and navigating the complexities of the industry. They discuss transitioning from card counting to advantage play, high-stakes bets, financial challenges, legal sports betting, and balancing dual careers.

The story of Long Term Capital Management as told by LTCM partner Eric Rosenfeld. Eric earned a PhD from MIT, then taught at Harvard Business School, then became a trader at Salomon, then was a founding partner of LTCM.Resources:HBS Study on LTCM dividendEric's talk at MIT in 2009Michael Lewis article on LTCMWhen Genius Failed, Roger LowensteinFollow the show on Twitter: @halfkellyEmail: riskofruinpod@gmail.comWeb: halfkelly.com

John Hempton runs Bronte Capital, which generates its excess returns primarily through shorting fraudulent companies. John walks through a hypothetical short, explaining how they find it, how they size positions, and the kinds of returns that can be expected. He also discusses his shorts of Valeant Pharmaceutical and Wirecard.John Hempton on Twitter: https://twitter.com/John_HemptonJohn's Blog: http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/Netflix documentary on Valeant: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7909184/Email the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.comFollow the show on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

Citrini, the brains behind Citrini Research, is revolutionizing thematic investment with his sharp market insights. He dives into the art of crafting investment theses and how understanding human behavior can lead to better predictions. He shares his emotional rollercoaster with Super Micro Computer and emphasizes the significance of long-term perspectives. Discussions also cover the impact of GLP-1 drugs on markets and the dynamic nature of creating effective stock baskets, all while advocating for transparency through the Citrindex.

Mark DeRosa, Zack White, and Rufus Peabody. The story a group of friends from Appalachian State that went on to team up with an econ grad from Yale. They started playing casino games and eventually would go on to bet the max at sports books all over Las Vegas.Follow Zack White on Twitter.Follow Mark DeRosa on Twitter.Follow Rufus Peabody on Twitter.Rufus's betting analytics startup: Unabated. 

Mark DeRosa, Zack White, and Rufus Peabody. The story a group of friends from Appalachian State that went on to team up with an econ grad from Yale. They started playing casino games and eventually would go on to bet the max at sports books all over Las Vegas.Follow Zack White on Twitter.Follow Mark DeRosa on Twitter.Follow Rufus Peabody on Twitter.Rufus's betting analytics startup: Unabated.