Global Security Briefing

As 2025 gathers pace, we reflect on security challenges from the previous year and look at what to expect in the coming months. What was foreseen and what was unexpected in last year’s global security developments? And how have security events altered the trajectory of various regions? In the second episode of this two-part special, host Neil Melvin is joined by colleagues in RUSI’s International Security team, Philip Shetler-Jones and Carlos Solar, to examine the year that has passed and to look at what’s coming next in the Indo-Pacific and Latin America.

At the start of 2025, we reflect on security challenges from the previous year and look at what to expect in the coming months. The past year registered many landmark events in global security. But what was foreseen, and what was unexpected? And how have security events altered the trajectory of various regions? In the first episode of this two-part special, host Neil Melvin is joined by colleagues from RUSI’s International Security team Ed Arnold, Burcu Ozcelik and Callum Fraser to examine the year that has passed and to look at what’s coming next in Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East.

Following the fall of the Assad regime, what comes next for Syria and the future of the region? The Middle East is experiencing significant challenges and transitions as 2024 draws to a close. The war between Israel and Hamas continues to dominate regional dynamics, with Gaza suffering a severe humanitarian crisis. Efforts towards a ceasefire are ongoing, but questions about Gaza's reconstruction and long-term governance remain unresolved. Additionally, in a sudden and dramatic turn of events, all eyes are now on Syria, where a lightning rebel offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (or HTS) brought about the rapid fall of the brutal Assad dictatorship that has ruled Syria for over five decades. The fall of the Assad regime marks a significant turning point for the region and raises many critical questions and challenges for the country's future. Host Neil Melvin is joined by Burcu Ozcelik, RUSI Senior Research Fellow, and Michael Stephens, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow, to ask: what would a future Syrian state look like? Are we any closer to a ceasefire deal in Gaza that could also see Israeli hostages being released? And how can we expect Iran to respond to the fall of its closest ally in the Middle East?

Mark Galeotti, a leading expert on Russia, and Andriy Zagorodnyuk, the former Ukrainian Minister of Defence, dive into the potential end of the Ukraine conflict amidst shifting U.S. dynamics. They discuss Trump's controversial claim of resolving the war swiftly and Ukraine's strategic concerns surrounding a potential ceasefire. The conversation highlights the complexities of U.S. foreign policy, the need for robust Western support, and the risks that a pause in fighting could pose. Additionally, they explore forming a global coalition to reinforce Ukraine's position in the geopolitical landscape.

Dr. Philip Shetler-Jones, a senior research fellow at RUSI specializing in Indo-Pacific security, and Ha Chae Kyoun (CK), a PhD candidate focusing on international relations, delve into North Korea's emergence as a key international security actor. They discuss the implications of North Korea's growing ties with Russia amid the Ukraine conflict and how this affects regional dynamics, especially for South Korea. They also explore potential North Korean troop deployments and the strategic shifts in alliances, revealing a complex, evolving security landscape in Northeast Asia.

Dr. Philip Shetler-Jones, an expert on Indo-Pacific security, Dr. Burcu Ozcelik, who focuses on Middle Eastern dynamics, and Callum Fraser, specializing in Russian foreign policy, delve into the evolving role of BRICS amid shifting global power. They discuss the impact of the recent BRICS summit on multipolarity, challenges of digital currency initiatives, and the group's expansion as a counterweight to Western influence. The trio also examines the balance of interests among member nations and the potential for BRICS to affect regional security dynamics.

One year on from Hamas’ 7 October attack on Israel, we look at the current state of the conflict in the Middle East and its future trajectory. Last week marked the one-year anniversary of the horrific Hamas attacks on 7 October. There are still no indications of how and under what conditions the war will end. To the contrary, all indications are that the region is on the precipice of a wider and deadlier war. The second in our series on the evolving crises in the Middle East, this episode will aim to explore the situation on the ground and the implications for geopolitical and geoeconomic relations inside the region, as well as the Middle East’s relations with external actors. Host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Research Fellow Burcu Ozcelik and RUSI Senior Associate Fellow Michael Stephens to discuss what has changed in the region since Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel on 1 October 2024. How should we interpret Israel’s strategic objectives as it expands its military campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon? What is Israel’s likely long game in Lebanon? And do the US or the UK have any real influence over Israel’s military decision-making and the course of the spiraling conflict?

Two years on, how has Japan progressed with its planned national security reforms, and how is it adapting to regional security challenges? In December 2022, Japan announced plans to almost double its defence budget and acquire a new set of strike capabilities. The context for that decision was a sense of rising danger and a need to be prepared to assume a larger defence burden. The plans progressed under the leadership of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, but he has now been replaced in this post. Shigeru Ishiba, Japan’s new prime minister, inherits a set of circumstances at home and abroad that will challenge this defence pivot. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Research Fellow Philip Shetler-Jones to discuss the original motivation behind these reforms, as well as what progress has been made. What sort of domestic debate is there in Japan on foreign and security policy? And will Japan be able to deliver on its ambitious plans? This episode is sponsored by the Embassy of Japan.

As tensions continue to rise in the Middle East, we launch a new mini-series dedicated to understanding the dynamics shaping the region. We are launching a regular new series of episodes of Global Security Briefing designed to foster a better understanding of the current situation in the region, entitled ‘The Middle East in Crisis’, which aims to review and provide analysis on the unfolding political, economic and security dynamics reshaping the region.  After months of tensions, including the detonation of electronic communication devices used by Hezbollah across Lebanon and Syria, Israel now appears to be on the verge of an all-out war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Almost a year on from the 7 October attacks, de-escalation efforts appear exhausted and violence is broadening. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Research Fellow Burcu Ozcelik and Senior Associate Fellow Michael Stephens to take stock of the current situation and explain the dynamics driving the current multifront crisis.   

Insights into the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine unfold, focusing on Ukraine's strategic incursion into the Kursk region. This daring operation aims to reshape the war narrative and affect Russian military strategy. The balance of power is at stake, with economic sanctions on Russia's war efforts facing scrutiny. Additionally, shifting alliances with nations like North Korea and Iran are examined, alongside the challenges Ukraine faces as the conflict drags on. The podcast delves into the complex interplay of U.S. support and European engagement.