Global Security Briefing The Imminent End of the Ukraine War?
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Nov 27, 2024 
Mark Galeotti, a leading expert on Russia, and Andriy Zagorodnyuk, the former Ukrainian Minister of Defence, dive into the potential end of the Ukraine conflict amidst shifting U.S. dynamics. They discuss Trump's controversial claim of resolving the war swiftly and Ukraine's strategic concerns surrounding a potential ceasefire. The conversation highlights the complexities of U.S. foreign policy, the need for robust Western support, and the risks that a pause in fighting could pose. Additionally, they explore forming a global coalition to reinforce Ukraine's position in the geopolitical landscape.
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Ukraine's Perspective on Negotiations
- Ukrainians do not expect good-faith negotiations from Putin.
- Military aid to Ukraine depends on US policy, and current US policy lacks a clear resolution strategy.
Trump's Approach to Ukraine War
- Trump's focus might be on domestic issues first, though he sees himself as capable of ending the war quickly.
- A ceasefire without proper negotiations is just a pause, advantageous to Russia.
Obstacles to Negotiation
- Putin's minimum demand likely includes territorial concessions and sanctions relief, but this seems unacceptable for Ukraine and the West.
- Meaningful negotiations require security guarantees for Ukraine, which clash with Putin's demands.