Global Security Briefing

Dr Burcu Ozcelik and Nicholas Hopton join Neil Melvin to discuss key insights from the Doha Forum and the shifting Middle East security landscape. In this episode, recorded at the Doha Forum 2025, Neil Melvin speaks with Dr Burcu Ozcelik, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI and Nicholas Hopton, RUSI Distinguished Fellow and former British Ambassador, to discuss the state of Middle Eastern security after two years of conflict. They explore how regional and global powers are responding to the effects of these conflicts, and what a new security order might look like. Topics discussed include: The current Middle East landscape following major conflicts across Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and the Gulf. Prospects for a new regional security order and pathways toward peace. How regional actors are positioning themselves diplomatically and strategically. Reactions to the new US National Security Strategy and perceptions of US engagement. Key takeaways from the Doha Forum debates on regional stability, governance and future diplomacy.

Dr. Eric Rudenshiold, a key voice on Caspian geopolitics and former NSC Director for Central Asia, shares insights on the evolving dynamics in the region. He discusses how Russia's Ukraine invasion has fostered greater cooperation among Central Asian states. With a focus on the Middle Corridor and the shifting influences of Russia and China, he assesses the role of new leadership in driving regional integration. Rudenshiold also explores the implications of renewed US engagement for future stability and economic opportunities.

Professor John Bew joins Neil Melvin to reflect on the UK's evolving global role, strategic reviews, and how Britain can navigate an era of geopolitical upheaval. Over the past decade, the United Kingdom has faced a rapidly transforming global environment marked by the rise of revisionist powers, economic disruption and the erosion of the post-Cold War international order. In response, successive governments have launched a series of major strategic reviews to redefine Britain's global role and national security priorities. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin speaks with Professor John Bew, former Foreign Policy Adviser to the UK Prime Minister. Professor Bew was the penholder on the last three UK national security strategies and was closely involved in the shaping of the most recent NATO Strategic Concept. Now back at King's College London, he reflects on how the UK has adapted to geopolitical change and what lies ahead for its foreign, defence and security policy. The discussion explores: How the global order is shifting and what this means for the UK's strategic posture. Lessons from three major UK national security reviews and their evolution. The UK's response to Russia's aggression and its separate, complex, relationship with China. The future of European security and Britain's role after Brexit. The Indo-Pacific tilt and what it reveals about the UK's global ambitions. The evolving UK-US relationship and prospects for sustaining the 'Special Relationship'. How Britain can define influence and leadership in a more competitive, multipolar world.

Trump's revived 'America First' policy is reshaping US-Latin America ties, testing regional stability, governance and the balance between Washington, Beijing, and Moscow. Nearly a year into his second term, President Trump has revived the 'America First' doctrine with a renewed focus on the Western Hemisphere. As Washington prioritises border security, transactional diplomacy and strategic competition with China and Russia, Latin American governments are reassessing how to navigate a more conditional and bilateral US approach. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Carlos Solar, Senior Research Fellow for Latin American Security at RUSI. The discussion explores: · How the Trump Administration is reshaping US engagement with Latin America. · The effects of aid cuts, tariff threats and bilateral deals on regional governance. · Shifts in defence and security cooperation under the new US strategy. · How Latin American governments are responding to a tougher, more transactional Washington. · The challenge of balancing US pressure with growing Chinese and Russian influence.

Dr. Philip Shetler-Jones, a Senior Research Fellow for Indo-Pacific Security at RUSI, explores Taiwan's precarious position amid escalating US-China tensions. He delves into China's shift towards grey-zone tactics and the implications of US policy under Trump. The discussion emphasizes the significance of Taiwan's societal resilience and defense reforms, alongside complexities in domestic politics that affect implementation. Additionally, they address the emerging Taiwan-Japan coast guard collaboration and how Taiwan's situation parallels Ukraine's geopolitical struggles.

As the end of the fourth year of the Russia-Ukraine war approaches, questions mount over President Trump's peace efforts and shifting international dynamics. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin is joined by Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian Minister of Defence and now Chairman of the Centre for Defence Strategies in Kyiv, to assess where the war now stands. The discussion explores: - Russia's intensified military campaign and Ukraine's counterstrikes - The collapse of Trump's diplomatic effort after the Alaska summit with Putin - Europe's response after being sidelined by Washington - Moscow's long-term strategy and potential challenges to NATO cohesion - Ukraine's security guarantees and the prospects for peace as a fifth year of fighting looms

Can Turkey act as a stabilising force in Syria and Iraq, or are its policies driven by short-term security concerns? As Ankara seeks to navigate the shifting geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, its approach to Syria and Iraq has become a key test of its regional influence. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, Neil Melvin is joined by Burcu Ozcelik, Senior Research Fellow, RUSI, Dr Serhat Erkmen, RUSI associate fellow and founder of the geopolitical risk consultancy, Pros and Cons, and Dr Oytun Orhan, Coordinator of Levant Studies at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies (ORSAM), to examine Turkey's policies. The discussion explores the impact of domestic pressures, regional rivalries, security threats, and great power relations, asking whether Ankara can translate tactical gains into a sustainable regional role.

Philip Shetler-Jones, a Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, dives into Britain's strategic shift towards the Indo-Pacific, focusing on the 2025 deployment of the HMS Prince of Wales. He discusses the deepening defense ties between the UK and Japan, along with the geopolitical challenges in the region. The conversation touches on the complexities surrounding US-China relations, Japan's emerging military role, and the future of UK naval operations amid fiscal constraints. Shetler-Jones provides insights into the broader implications of this naval presence on international security.

Tensions in the Indo-Pacific are testing US power and alliances. What does this mean for regional strategy and for the UK? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr. Kori Schake, senior fellow and the director of foreign and defence policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, and Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, senior research fellow, RUSI, to examine whether the Trump administration has a coherent Indo-Pacific strategy or is simply reacting to China's growing influence. As Washington debates its role in Asia amid military overstretch, defence industrial challenges, and diverging views on alliance priorities, the UK faces key questions about its own Indo-Pacific tilt. With British carriers deploying to the region and AUKUS under scrutiny, this episode explores whether the US has the will and means to lead, how regional actors are responding, and what all this means for UK strategy in an era of intensifying great power competition.

Open warfare has crossed the Middle East, and in its wake came an erosion of the norms of statesmanship and the power of international law to avert conflict. What are the implications for deterrence, diplomacy, and the future of UK, US, and regional strategy? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI experts Burcu Ozcelik and Michael Stephens to assess whether the Middle East is on the cusp of fundamental transformation or simply entering another volatile chapter. With the region rocked by Hamas' October 2023 attacks, a devastating war in Gaza, direct military strikes between Iran and Israel, and renewed US intervention, long-held assumptions about deterrence, regional power balances, and the limits of escalation have been upended. As Prime Minister Netanyahu meets President Trump in Washington, the episode explores how far the region has shifted and whether latest confrontations mark the end of 'grey-zone' conflicts and the emergence of a new order shaped by overt state-to-state warfare. Has Iran's deterrence crumbled? Can Israel claim strategic success? Are Gulf states and the US recalibrating their roles? And what does all this mean for the future of Gaza, the Arab-Israeli process of diplomatic normalisation, and UK foreign policy?