Have the Recent Conflicts Transformed the Middle East?

Open warfare has crossed the Middle East, and in its wake came an erosion of the norms of statesmanship and the power of international law to avert conflict. What are the implications for deterrence, diplomacy, and the future of UK, US, and regional strategy?

In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI experts Burcu Ozcelik and Michael Stephens to assess whether the Middle East is on the cusp of fundamental transformation or simply entering another volatile chapter. With the region rocked by Hamas' October 2023 attacks, a devastating war in Gaza, direct military strikes between Iran and Israel, and renewed US intervention, long-held assumptions about deterrence, regional power balances, and the limits of escalation have been upended.

As Prime Minister Netanyahu meets President Trump in Washington, the episode explores how far the region has shifted and whether latest confrontations mark the end of 'grey-zone' conflicts and the emergence of a new order shaped by overt state-to-state warfare. Has Iran's deterrence crumbled? Can Israel claim strategic success? Are Gulf states and the US recalibrating their roles? And what does all this mean for the future of Gaza, the Arab-Israeli process of diplomatic normalisation, and UK foreign policy?