North Korea’s Emergence as an International Security Actor
Nov 13, 2024
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Dr. Philip Shetler-Jones, a senior research fellow at RUSI specializing in Indo-Pacific security, and Ha Chae Kyoun (CK), a PhD candidate focusing on international relations, delve into North Korea's emergence as a key international security actor. They discuss the implications of North Korea's growing ties with Russia amid the Ukraine conflict and how this affects regional dynamics, especially for South Korea. They also explore potential North Korean troop deployments and the strategic shifts in alliances, revealing a complex, evolving security landscape in Northeast Asia.
North Korea's burgeoning military collaboration with Russia during the Ukraine conflict signals its emergence as a notable international security actor.
The complex security dynamics in Northeast Asia compel South Korea to rethink its alliances and strategies in light of North Korea and Russia's involvement.
Deep dives
North Korea's Heightened Role in Global Security
North Korea has emerged as a significant concern in global security, especially in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Historically, the country received little international attention post-2008 following the stall of talks on its nuclear program until 2019, when attempts at diplomacy were made during the Trump administration. However, as the Biden administration focused on strengthening ties with South Korea and other allies, North Korea continued its missile testing and nuclear ambitions, effectively sidelining itself from the global agenda. With Russia seeking support amidst its conflict with Ukraine, North Korea is positioning itself as a key player, potentially altering the landscape of international security dynamics.
Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on North Korean Strategy
The conflict in Ukraine has revitalized North Korea's relationship with Russia, leading to a mutual security agreement that suggests North Korea may aid Russia by sending troops. Analysts suggest that this relationship is largely driven by Russia's desperation for support and North Korea's eagerness to gain leverage in international negotiations. The military collaboration allows North Korea to gain valuable battlefield experience for its troops, while also advancing its military technology and operational capabilities. This evolving alliance raises concerns for South Korea, which must reassess its security strategy in the face of a more assertive North Korea supported by Russia.
Regional Security Dilemmas for South Korea
South Korea faces a complex security dilemma as it navigates its relationship with both North Korea and Russia amidst heightened tensions linked to international conflicts. While South Korea has traditionally focused on bilateral relations with the North, the recent developments compel it to consider broader alliances and the potential spillover effects of conflicts in regions such as Ukraine and Taiwan. The government's cautious approach has been reflected in its ongoing discussions about NATO engagement and defense strategies, as well as the possibility of sending troops or intelligence resources to Ukraine. The domestic political landscape complicates these efforts, as public opinion remains divided on the extent of military support South Korea should provide.
Future Implications of North Korea's Alliances
The evolving dynamics between North Korea, Russia, and China indicate an increasingly intertwined security environment in Northeast Asia, raising questions about future conflicts and alliances. As the North Korean regime engages with Russia, it may seek to expand its influence in international security discussions, potentially leading to further geopolitical complications. Analysts speculate that North Korea could leverage its military collaboration with Russia to negotiate with the United States in future talks, especially if a new U.S. administration seeks rapprochement. This could create a challenging scenario where the interests of North Korea, Russia, and China align against the U.S. and its allies, reshaping the security landscape in the region.
As Russia turns to Pyongyang for reinforcements against Ukraine, we explore the events that have shaped North Korea as a security actor.
Following the stalling of the ‘Six Party’ talks about North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme in 2008, the country attracted little international attention until 2019 and Donald Trump’s ultimately fruitless attempts to unlock the relationship through summit diplomacy. During the Biden administration there have been few initiatives towards North Korea; Washington has focused instead on strengthening the relationship with South Korea and other regional allies.
As the war in Ukraine has dragged on, Russia has increasingly turned to North Korea for weapons and, more recently, also troops.
In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, and Ha Chae Kyoun (CK), former visiting fellow at RUSI under the Korea Foundation project, to discuss the implications of North Korea’s involvement, and how other countries are responding.
This episode is brought to you as part of the Korea Programme, sponsored by the Korea Foundation.
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