Odd Lots

Nouriel Roubini, chief economist and portfolio manager of the Atlas America Fund, discusses the evolving landscape of investment strategies in light of recent economic challenges. He critiques the 60/40 portfolio's failures during inflationary times and proposes innovative safe asset solutions. Roubini also examines the impact of potential future policies, U.S. economic outlook for 2025, and the complexities of adapting to a shifting dollar environment. His insights pave the way for new approaches amid rising stagflation and global economic uncertainty.

Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, and David Kostin, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, tackle the macroeconomic uncertainties as we approach 2025. They discuss the potential impacts of new administration policies on tariffs and inflation, emphasizing how these factors affect market dynamics. The duo explores the balance of investor sentiment amid high valuations, the role of AI in shaping market expectations, and the complexities of economic growth linked to migration trends. Their insights provide a roadmap for navigating the turbulent waters of today’s economy.

Viktor Shvets, a global strategist and author of "The Twilight Before the Storm," discusses the turbulence facing the global economy, catalyzed by political shifts like Trump's election. He examines the ongoing re-evaluation of trade dynamics and the historical tensions that influence today’s tariffs. Shvets also sheds light on labor market transformations due to political decisions and societal polarization, offering an optimistic outlook for future advancements. With a touch of humor, he links personal choices, like beer consumption, to broader societal shifts.

Milwood Hobbs, Managing Director at Oaktree, shares his expertise in credit investing, highlighting the challenges in sourcing deals. He explains how he navigates the private credit landscape, focusing on relationship management and negotiation tactics. Listeners learn about the impact of the Dodd-Frank Act on market dynamics and the evolution of credit markets. Hobbs emphasizes the significance of due diligence to uncover potential risks and stresses the importance of adaptability in forging essential partnerships.

Sujeet Indap, Wall Street Editor at the Financial Times and author of The Caesars Palace Coup, dives into the intense world of creditor-on-creditor violence. He reveals how the rise of 'cov-lite' loans has led to fierce competition among investors scrambling to recover their stakes from distressed companies. Indap discusses the legal battles increasing costs for big players, the crafty loopholes exploited by hedge funds, and offers insights into the complex dynamics of leveraged loans and private equity during financial unrest.

Janet Lorin, Bloomberg's higher education finance reporter, discusses the perilous position of Harvard's endowment as it risks being surpassed by the University of Texas. She explores the reasons behind Harvard's decline, including management controversies and unique advantages for Texas driven by energy revenues. The conversation highlights the shifting landscape of university endowments, fundraising challenges, and the implications of investment strategies in private equity. Lorin also touches on alumni reactions to recent controversies affecting donations.

Odd Arne Westad, a Yale history professor and co-author of 'The Great Transformation: China’s Road from Revolution to Reform,' dives into China's remarkable shift to a capitalist economy. He discusses pivotal reforms under Deng Xiaoping and the impact of the Cultural Revolution. The conversation reveals the intricate relationship between economic changes and political stability. Westad also highlights the individual stories of resilience during this transformation and critiques common misconceptions about China's opening up to global markets.

Jetson Leder-Luis, an assistant professor at Boston University and a research fellow at NBER, dives into the murky waters of government fraud. He discusses how schemes like ambulance fraud and identity theft siphon billions from programs like Medicare and Medicaid. The conversation sheds light on the explosion of fraud during the pandemic, particularly in unemployment insurance. Leder-Luis also emphasizes the role of whistleblowers and data analysis in combating these issues, highlighting the urgent need for effective anti-fraud strategies.

In the final episode of our special three-part series exploring the US economy through the chicken industry, we’re taking a look at market competition. Chicken in the US is dominated by a handful of huge poultry processors. But new technologies,  like algorithmic pricing, are also leading to accusations of anticompetitive corporate behavior that can potentially create bad outcomes for both consumers and workers. We’re using poultry to trace the evolution of America’s approach to antitrust and learning what’s different now. You’ll hear from senior officials at the Department of Justice about how concentration in chicken and elsewhere is impacting the economy, and what can be done to fix it.    Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Maren McKenna, journalist and author of "Big Chicken," teams up with Craig Watts, a former poultry producer from North Carolina, to explore the evolution of chicken farming in America. They dive into the drastic changes from small-scale operations to large poultry corporations, examining the industry's impact on labor markets and profit distribution. Watts shares his insights on the exploitative tournament system that burdens independent farmers, raising critical questions about animal welfare and the future of agriculture.