Lots More on the Coming 20-Year Storm with Viktor Shvets
Nov 29, 2024
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Viktor Shvets, a global strategist and author of "The Twilight Before the Storm," discusses the turbulence facing the global economy, catalyzed by political shifts like Trump's election. He examines the ongoing re-evaluation of trade dynamics and the historical tensions that influence today’s tariffs. Shvets also sheds light on labor market transformations due to political decisions and societal polarization, offering an optimistic outlook for future advancements. With a touch of humor, he links personal choices, like beer consumption, to broader societal shifts.
The discussion emphasizes the challenging implications of U.S. tariffs on imports, revealing a complex interplay between protectionism and economic consequences.
Exploring the political trilemma in globalization highlights the increasing tension between nation-states, democracy, and the forces of globalization amid rising discontent.
Deep dives
The Impact of Tariffs on Economic Policy
The discussion delves into the potential implications of proposed tariffs by the U.S. government, specifically targeting goods from China, Mexico, and Canada. These tariffs, purportedly linked to immigration and drug flow issues, are viewed as both a negotiating tactic and a genuine effort to protect domestic industries. However, imposing such tariffs can inadvertently tax U.S. manufacturers, as a significant portion of imports consists of intermediate goods that are essential for production. This situation highlights the delicate balance between protectionist measures and their broader economic consequences, particularly in relation to inflation and international trade dynamics.
Political Trilemma and Globalization
The concept of a political trilemma in globalization is integral to understanding current political dynamics, where the coexistence of globalization, nation-states, and democracy is increasingly strained. Historical perspectives suggest that past responses to similar economic pressures led to polarization and the emergence of conflicting ideologies, including communism and fascism. Presently, prominent political figures react to global and domestic discontent by reflecting the population's anxiety about job security and economic stability. As globalization faces backlash, future political discourse is poised to navigate these tensions, balancing the need for sovereign control with the reality of a globalized economy.
Corporate Responsibility Amid Cultural Shifts
The increasing politicization of corporate actions, particularly regarding diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives, reveals the pressures companies face to align with societal values. Recent rollbacks of DEI policies by major corporations signify a shift in corporate strategy in response to changing political climates and consumer sentiment. This evolving landscape complicates the traditional view of corporate responsibility, where maximizing shareholder returns dominated. Understanding these trends is vital for investors as they navigate a corporate world that must now balance societal expectations with their economic objectives in a polarized environment.
The election of Donald Trump, with his promise of more tariffs and a much tighter stance on immigration is a source of major macro uncertainty. To some it marks the end of a certain neoliberal consensus about globalization, and the pre-eminent role played by financial markets. According to today's guest, we're at the beginning of a long, turbulent period that may not be resolved for two decades to come. On this episode, we speak with macro strategist Viktor Shvets, and author of the new book, The Twilight Before the Storm: From the Fractured 1930s to Today's Crisis Culture. He talks about the big rethink that's underway on a whole host of issues that pertain to the global economy, starting with trade, and why it will take years for the dust to settle.
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