Goldman's Hatzius and Kostin on Markets and Macro in 2025
Dec 2, 2024
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Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, and David Kostin, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, tackle the macroeconomic uncertainties as we approach 2025. They discuss the potential impacts of new administration policies on tariffs and inflation, emphasizing how these factors affect market dynamics. The duo explores the balance of investor sentiment amid high valuations, the role of AI in shaping market expectations, and the complexities of economic growth linked to migration trends. Their insights provide a roadmap for navigating the turbulent waters of today’s economy.
The podcast highlights the profound uncertainty in the current economic climate, driven by policy changes, inflation, and labor market outlooks.
Moderate earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2025 is projected, supported by sales increases and margin expansions despite high stock valuations.
Analysts are closely monitoring potential tariff impacts, as these could influence corporate earnings and pricing amid an evolving global landscape.
Deep dives
Wells Fargo's Community Impact
Wells Fargo aims to foster a sustainable and inclusive future by directly addressing essential community needs such as housing affordability, small business growth, and financial well-being. Over the past five years, the bank has invested nearly $2 billion to bolster local communities, showcasing its commitment to social responsibility. This philanthropic effort is extended through contributions from Wells Fargo & Company, Wells Fargo Bank N.A., and the Wells Fargo Foundation. Such initiatives reflect a broader trend in corporate social responsibility, emphasizing the importance of banks and institutions actively participating in their community’s development.
Economic Outlook Challenges
The current economic climate is characterized by heightened uncertainty, making it a challenging environment for making short- to medium-term forecasts. Analysts voice concerns regarding consumer spending, inflation trends, and Federal Reserve actions, each influenced by various domestic and international factors. The discussion emphasizes that traditional forecasting methods may be inadequate given the complexities arising from policy shifts and unforeseen economic shocks. As a result, experts are now focusing on understanding the underlying structural changes driving current economic conditions.
Insights on Earnings Growth
Predictions for the S&P 500 forecast indicate significant earnings growth, with expectations of an 11% increase in 2025, bouncing back from earlier recession fears. Companies are anticipated to experience sales growth approximating 5%, supported by margin expansion while addressing healthcare-related challenges. This optimistic outlook is based on a foundation that suggests robust earnings growth will stem from effective management strategies and favorable economic indicators. Nevertheless, caution is advised as market multiples are expected to decrease slightly, reflecting investor sentiment and overall market conditions.
Tariffs and Inflation Implications
Potential increases in tariffs, particularly on imports from China, are anticipated to have significant implications on pricing and corporate earnings. While tariffs could initially contribute to higher input costs—thereby impacting inflation—the longer-term consequences are still not entirely clear. Analysts stress that tariffs may result in short-lived price shocks rather than sustained inflation, contingent on the reaction of inflation expectations and broader economic policies. As such, monitoring tariff developments is crucial for understanding their potential impact on market dynamics and economic stability.
Valuation and Market Sentiment
Investment strategies are evolving as portfolio managers analyze the valuation metrics of different sectors, notably between large-cap stocks and international markets. The significant valuation gap suggests potential opportunities outside the U.S., particularly in regions like Europe and Asia, although these markets have historically lagged. There is an increasing focus on how companies can leverage advancements in AI to enhance operational efficiencies and corporate margins. Overall, the financial landscape is shifting, prompting a reevaluation of conventional investment approaches amid ongoing uncertainties.
It's trite to say that there is a high degree of uncertainty right now, for macro forecasters and investors. It also happens to be true. The new administration is promising major policy changes in areas like tariffs, immigration, and the size and scope of government. But even beyond that, there is near-term uncertainty over the outlook for the labor market and inflation. Furthermore, we're in an era of high stock valuations, high market concentration, and the AI wildcard. So in light of all this, we talked to Jan Hatzius, the Chief Economist and Head of Global Investment Research, and David Kostin, Goldman's top equity strategist, about what they're looking for in the year ahead.
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