Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

Alberto Rizzi, an ECFR policy fellow based in Rome and author of 'Markets, Migrants, Microchips,' dives into the complex topic of Europe’s demographic transition. He explores the implications of a shrinking and aging population on geopolitical power. Rizzi discusses the contrasting experiences of European nations like Germany and Italy versus France and the UK. He emphasizes the necessity for Europe to strengthen international ties, particularly with Africa and the Indo-Pacific, in light of shifting demographics and labor demands.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director general at the Royal United Services Institute and former Labour government advisor, for an Emergency Room episode dissecting the UK’s newly unveiled Strategic Defence Review (SDR). Prime minister Keir Starmer has committed to increasing defence spending to 3% GDP by 2030, expanding the UK’s military capabilities with 12 attack submarines, boosting munitions production, and possibly reviving an air-launched nuclear capability. Together Mark and Malcolm discuss how—amid Russia’s war in Ukraine and America’s talk of reducing its European presence—the SDR focuses on leveraging AI and uncrewed systems, as well as a “NATO first, Europe first” approach. They also consider how to balance transatlantic relations with closer EU defence cooperation. Can Britain drive a technological and geopolitical shift? Or will fiscal and industrial constraints limit its ambitions?The podcast was recorded on June 2nd, 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, for a 15-minute rapid-response episode dissecting the outcome of Poland’s presidential election. Yesterday, right-wing populist Karol Nawrocki, member of the Law and Justice party (PiS), edged out Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski by just 400,000 votes, crushing hopes of a liberal wave similar to Romania. Together, Mark and Piotr unpack the election’s profound impact on Poland’s fractured politics, what the outcome means for prime minister Donald Tusk’s struggling government, and the future of EU cohesion. Nawrocki set to block Tusk’s judicial reforms and amplify Euroscepticism—but what about Poland’s place in the EU? And how will the development impact the country’s support for Ukraine? This podcast was recorded on 2 June 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tiago Antunes, an ECFR senior fellow and former Portuguese official, teams up with Nicu Popescu, a distinguished policy fellow and former Moldovan deputy prime minister. They delve into the proposed European Preparedness Act, inspired by the US Defense Production Act, aiming to enhance the EU's crisis response capabilities. The discussion also highlights the challenges of energy resilience in Moldova and Ukraine, and the necessity for stronger collaboration among EU member states. Literary insights on diplomacy add an engaging twist to their conversation.

Julien Barnes-Dacey, ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme director, offers crucial insights into the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. He discusses the faltering Gaza Humanitarian Foundation's controversial role amid accusations of worsening displacement. The dialogue shifts to Europe's evolving stance, including possible sanctions and retuning trade ties with Israel. Can Europe effectively intervene, or is it too late to reshape the course of the crisis? Tune in to explore the complex interplay of humanitarian strategies and geopolitical implications.

Ivan Rogers, former UK permanent representative to the EU, and Camille Grand, former NATO assistant secretary general, discuss the recent EU-UK security and defense pact. They analyze the complexities of the agreement and its implications for Britain’s position in Europe. Topics include how the UK's increased demands have altered its leverage and the potential fallout for domestic politics. The conversation also touches on the evolving landscape of trade relations and the necessity for new defense frameworks in light of global security challenges, particularly concerning Ukraine.

In this engaging discussion, Piotr Buras, the head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, shares his expertise on the recent elections in Poland and Romania. He highlights the surprising victory of Romania’s liberal candidate Dan Barna against far-right challenger George Simion. The conversation dives into Poland's tight presidential race between Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, examining the challenges facing liberalism amidst rising populism. Buras also explores the broader implications for Europe’s political landscape and the potential for liberal resurgence.

Mij Rahman, Managing Director for Europe at Eurasia Group and expert in European politics, joins the discussion. They analyze the recent EU-UK summit's key agreements, particularly the agri-food deal and security partnership. While it marks progress, unresolved tensions linger, especially around fishing rights post-Brexit. The conversation delves into the complexities of negotiation efforts, exploring whether this summit can truly reset relations or serves merely as a cautious step amid deeper political challenges. What lies ahead for UK-EU ties?

Célia Belin, head of ECFR’s Paris office and a senior policy fellow, shares her insights on the implications of Donald Trump's potential return to the White House. She argues that Trump's foreign policy, while seemingly chaotic, follows a clear ideology that positions Europe as a target rather than an ally. The conversation explores the challenges of transatlantic trust, the impact on European leaders, and what a 'MAGA-shaped Europe' might look like, emphasizing the need for Europe to assert its identity amidst rising nationalism.

Far from a grand bargain, the US-China trade deal rolls back President Donald Trump’s post-Liberation Day tariff spiral—which peaked at 145%—to pre-April levels. This will avert empty US shelves, but leaves underlying tensions unresolved. In this emergency room episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel, head of ECFR’s Asia programme, to dissect the recent de-escalation, which the parties agreed this week in Geneva. The conversation explores who holds the upper hand, the prospects for a 90-day negotiation period, and the broader clash between deal-making instincts and systemic rivalry. For Europe, caught between US pressure and a less desperate China, the stakes are high as it navigates an upcoming EU-China summit. Is this a fleeting truce or a sign of deeper shifts in global trade?This episode was recorded on May 14. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.