Less than two weeks into his second term and President Donald Trump is already dominating global headlines. From reigniting trade war threats and doubling down on his ambitions to acquire Greenland, to withdrawing from multilateral agreements and demanding that NATO allies allocate 5% of their GDP to defence—his administration is swiftly attempting to reshape global dynamics. Meanwhile, Trump’s ally Elon Musk is stirring political controversy and further unsettling European leaders. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Lons, deputy head of ECFR’s Paris office, Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, deputy head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR’s Berlin office, José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of ECFR’s Madrid office and Arturo Varvelli, head of ECFR’s Rome office, to discuss how European capitals are responding to Trump’s dramatic return to the White House. Which major issues are they trying to deal with? And how are Europeans and the EU preparing for all the disruption to come? Bookshelf: Geopolitics and Democracy: The Western Liberal Order from Foundation to Fracture by Peter Trubowitz and Brian Burgoon Orbital by Samatha Harvey Realpolitik How to face the global disorder by Giampiero Massolo The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021 by Peter Baker and Susan Glasser Cocktail sugar : et autres nouvelles de Corée by Kim Ae-ran, Go Eun-ju, Jeon Gyeong-nin, Eun Hee-kyung, Oh Jung-hi, Han Kang, Park Chan-Soon, Pak Wan-So  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, and Arancha González, former Spanish foreign minister and current dean at Sciences Po, share their insights from Davos amid Donald Trump's recent return to politics. They discuss the mixed feelings surrounding Trump's impact on global trade, including the potential for new tariffs and geopolitical tensions like those in Ukraine. The importance of international alliances and the role of gender equality in economic growth are also highlighted, painting a complex picture of the current global landscape.

Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR's Berlin office, and Jeremy Cliffe, editorial director at ECFR, delve into the political climate as Germany approaches its federal election. They discuss Friedrich Merz's rising influence in the CDU and the so-called 'Merz Doctrine.' Insights on Germany's foreign policy amid U.S. politics are explored, including reactions to a potential second Trump administration. The conversation also touches on crucial international relations, particularly concerning Russia and Ukraine, and highlights the shifting dynamics in European leadership.

Join experts Piotr Buras, a key figure in EU politics, Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, focused on security policies, and Joanna Bekker from Polityka Insight as they dissect Poland's new EU Council presidency. They discuss the country’s pivotal role amid the Ukraine war and its complex security landscape. Hear insights on the potential impact of Poland's upcoming election on its leadership ambitions, the rise of far-right ideologies, and how the Weimar group's efforts could promote European unity. It's a thought-provoking discussion on emerging European dynamics!

2024 was a year of intense geopolitical shifts and growing uncertainty. But one thing remains consistent: ECFR’s ever-popular predictions podcast. In our first outing for 2025, Mark Leonard and ECFR research director Jeremy Shapiro team up to reflect on the accuracy of last year’s predictions—and, with crystal balls in hand, try to decipher which forces will shape 2025. Is this the year they finally achieve 10/10?Let us know if you think they missed something! Write your own predictions in to Mark via mark.leonard@ecfr.eu.Bookshelf:A Nasty Little War: The West's Fight to Reverse the Russian Revolution by Anna ReidRegime Change: Toward a Postliberal Future by Patrick J. Deneen2024: The year we embrace predictable surprise by Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro  This podcast was recorded on 27 December 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As Donald Trump’s return to the presidency looms, European leaders are intensifying their diplomatic efforts. Emmanuel Macron has met with Donald Tusk to discuss European troop deployments, while a high-stakes meeting in Brussels with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky, NATO secretary general Mark Rutte and EU leaders included discussions on potential peacekeeping missions. Europe seems determined to secure Ukraine’s future, offer it meaningful security guarantees, and maintain regional stability.This week Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand, distinguished policy fellow at ECFR and former assistant secretary general for defence investment at NATO, Jana Kobsova, visiting fellow at ECFR and foreign policy advisor to Slovak president Zuzana Caputová, and Nicu Popescu, former Moldova foreign minister and distinguished policy fellow at ECFR, to discuss the ongoing negotiations. Which different scenarios are being discussed? What stage are these discussions at? Can Europeans help to shore up Ukraine at this critical stage—and, crucially, can the EU provide it with long-term security guarantees? Bookshelf:The Anatomy of a Moment: Thirty-Five Minutes in History and Imagination by Javier CercasFaustian Bargain: The Soviet-German Partnership and the Origins of the Second World War by Ian Ona JohnsonTalks with T. G. Masaryk by Karel ČapekHow to Talk About Books You Haven't Read by Pierre Bayard This podcast was recorded on 18 December 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As the world becomes increasingly disordered and fragmented, Europe faces mounting geoeconomic challenges on multiple fronts: Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s ambitions in Taiwan, and the uncertain future of transatlantic relations under Donald Trump. To remain relevant, European policymakers must step up and approach supply chains, trade rules, investment flows, and energy policy as indispensable elements of statecraft.This week Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais, ECFR’s geoeconomics lead, and Abraham Newman, professor at the School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government at Georgetown University, and co-author of Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy, to discuss how Europe can overcome its internal dysfunction when it comes to geoeconomics. How can Europe remain relevant in geoeconomics? What are the main obstacles to it doing so? And what risks does Europe face by sticking to business as usual? Bookshelf:The Nightingale Gallery by Paul DohertyEurope Must Unlock Its Geoeconomic Power by Agathe Demarais and Abraham NewmanThe Other '68ers: Student Protest and Christian Democracy in West Germany by Anna Von Der Goltz Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s MENA programme, and Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins, delve into shifting dynamics in the Middle East following potential changes in Syria. They discuss the implications of the Assad regime's possible fall and how it could reshape political and security landscapes. The conversation also highlights Iran’s evolving foreign policy, especially amid U.S. changes, and the new alliances forming in the region, showcasing a future marked by uncertainty and adaptation.

Marie Dumoulin, Director of ECFR’s Wider Europe programme, and Jeremy Shapiro, Head of ECFR’s Washington office, delve into the shifting tides of U.S. foreign policy amid Donald Trump’s potential re-election. They discuss the rising conversation around a ceasefire and what it could mean for the war in Ukraine. With Trump’s new envoy, General Kellogg, emerging, they review military strategies and the urgency of European nations to bolster their own security. The pair also highlight the complexities of Ukraine’s mobilization and the geopolitical stakes involved.

Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR's MENA programme and expert on Middle Eastern politics, shares keen insights on the nuanced ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. He discusses the motivations behind this agreement, highlighting Hezbollah's significant losses and external pressures. The conversation navigates the complex geopolitical landscape involving the US and France, the implications for Lebanese politics, and the uncertain future of the Gaza conflict. Barnes-Dacey’s analysis sheds light on the delicate balance of power and the potential for renewed tensions.