Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

Ellie Geranmayeh, the deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, shares her insights on the ongoing protests in Iran and the implications of potential U.S. military intervention. She discusses the harsh crackdown of the Iranian regime, the challenges in verifying events on the ground, and why Trump's mixed signals create uncertainty. Geranmayeh also considers Reza Pahlavi's rising profile in opposition and explores alternatives to military action, emphasizing diplomacy and internal dynamics in shaping Iran's future.

Julien Barnes-Dacey, Alex Vines, Andrew Small, and Jana Kobzová bring their expertise to discuss Europe's looming challenges in 2026. They explore the prospects of a ceasefire in Ukraine and the impact of Iran's protests on regional stability. The conversation shifts to Africa's complex security landscape, highlighting critical conflicts and economic struggles. Lastly, they delve into China's growing influence and the geopolitical tensions surrounding it, forecasting a year of relative calm—but cautioning about potential flashpoints ahead.

In this discussion, Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, and José Ignacio Torreblanca, a Distinguished Policy Fellow, dive into the U.S. military's dramatic capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. They explore Trump's motivations and the implications of U.S. control over Venezuela’s oil reserves. The conversation shifts to U.S. foreign policy, the role of factional politics in Trump’s decision-making, and potential ramifications for regions like Greenland, questioning whether military force will shape future American engagement across the Americas.

In a lively discussion, Jeremy Shapiro, the research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, joins to assess past predictions and forecast a turbulent 2026. They examine Trump’s impactful return to politics and its chaos. Key highlights include predictions about the rise of the European far right and the potential for an uneasy ceasefire in Ukraine. Shapiro also anticipates a new US-Iran deal resembling the JCPOA and warns of growing sovereign debt issues in the global south. Tune in for a deep dive into 2026's geopolitical landscape!

Join Tobias Gehrke, a senior policy fellow specializing in economic security, and Andrew Small, director of ECFR's Asia programme, as they navigate Europe's challenges posed by China's tightening export controls. They discuss the significant risks for European industries and analyze how China gathers intelligence to enhance its coercive capabilities. The duo explores Europe’s competitive landscape against China, potential partnerships for alternative supply chains, and strategies to mitigate economic coercion amidst political divisions.

Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow at ECFR, and Hugh Lovatt, chairman of the European Middle East Project, dive into pressing Middle Eastern issues. They uncover insights from the Doha Forum, discussing Gaza's precarious future and the complex dynamics of Iran's nuclear diplomacy. The guests explore America's waning role as a security guarantor in the region and debate the implications of impending Israeli elections on foreign policy. With Gaza's governance hanging in the balance, they emphasize the need for international cooperation and Palestinian agency to sustain peace.

Gladden Pappin, President of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs and expert on US foreign policy, joins to dive into America's new National Security Strategy. The document raises eyebrows with its gloss over Russia as a threat, prompting discussion on the implications for Europe and transatlantic ties. They explore America's shifting priorities towards domestic rebuilding, critique the NSS's focus on migration and political outreach, and examine the strategic portrayal of China and Russia. Pappin argues it's a product of serious strategic dialogue, not mere whim.

In this discussion, Dan Wang, a research fellow at the Hoover History Lab and author of *Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future*, shares his insights on China’s technological rise. He contrasts China’s 'engineering state' with the West's 'lawyerly' approach, exploring implications for innovation and infrastructure. Dan delves into China's dominance in clean tech, the rapid iterations of its industries, and the internal challenges it faces. He also warns about Europe’s competitive disadvantages and advocates for a more assertive policy response.

In a thought-provoking discussion, guests Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister of Sweden, Norbert Röttgen, German Bundestag member, and Lykke Friis, former Danish minister, reflect on the evolution of European foreign policy since ECFR's founding. They explore the shift from optimism in 2007 to today's geopolitical fragmentation and rising tensions. Notably, Röttgen highlights Germany's defense policy transformation, while Friis emphasizes the integration of climate and migration into foreign strategy. The panel envisions Europe's resilience over the next two decades amid ongoing challenges.

In this insightful discussion, Jana Kobzova, co-director of ECFR’s European Security Programme with a focus on Ukraine, teams up with Jim O’Brien, a former US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe. They delve into a leaked 28-point framework aimed at ending the Ukraine conflict, dismissing it as a potential capitulation. The duo analyzes the implications for European security and the contentious demands of the plan. They also address how Ukraine's sovereignty can be preserved amidst international negotiations while navigating domestic political challenges.