2024 was a year of intense geopolitical shifts and growing uncertainty. But one thing remains consistent: ECFR’s ever-popular predictions podcast. In our first outing for 2025, Mark Leonard and ECFR research director Jeremy Shapiro team up to reflect on the accuracy of last year’s predictions—and, with crystal balls in hand, try to decipher which forces will shape 2025. Is this the year they finally achieve 10/10?Let us know if you think they missed something! Write your own predictions in to Mark via mark.leonard@ecfr.eu.Bookshelf:A Nasty Little War: The West's Fight to Reverse the Russian Revolution by Anna ReidRegime Change: Toward a Postliberal Future by Patrick J. Deneen2024: The year we embrace predictable surprise by Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro  This podcast was recorded on 27 December 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As Donald Trump’s return to the presidency looms, European leaders are intensifying their diplomatic efforts. Emmanuel Macron has met with Donald Tusk to discuss European troop deployments, while a high-stakes meeting in Brussels with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky, NATO secretary general Mark Rutte and EU leaders included discussions on potential peacekeeping missions. Europe seems determined to secure Ukraine’s future, offer it meaningful security guarantees, and maintain regional stability.This week Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand, distinguished policy fellow at ECFR and former assistant secretary general for defence investment at NATO, Jana Kobsova, visiting fellow at ECFR and foreign policy advisor to Slovak president Zuzana Caputová, and Nicu Popescu, former Moldova foreign minister and distinguished policy fellow at ECFR, to discuss the ongoing negotiations. Which different scenarios are being discussed? What stage are these discussions at? Can Europeans help to shore up Ukraine at this critical stage—and, crucially, can the EU provide it with long-term security guarantees? Bookshelf:The Anatomy of a Moment: Thirty-Five Minutes in History and Imagination by Javier CercasFaustian Bargain: The Soviet-German Partnership and the Origins of the Second World War by Ian Ona JohnsonTalks with T. G. Masaryk by Karel ČapekHow to Talk About Books You Haven't Read by Pierre Bayard This podcast was recorded on 18 December 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As the world becomes increasingly disordered and fragmented, Europe faces mounting geoeconomic challenges on multiple fronts: Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s ambitions in Taiwan, and the uncertain future of transatlantic relations under Donald Trump. To remain relevant, European policymakers must step up and approach supply chains, trade rules, investment flows, and energy policy as indispensable elements of statecraft.This week Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais, ECFR’s geoeconomics lead, and Abraham Newman, professor at the School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government at Georgetown University, and co-author of Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy, to discuss how Europe can overcome its internal dysfunction when it comes to geoeconomics. How can Europe remain relevant in geoeconomics? What are the main obstacles to it doing so? And what risks does Europe face by sticking to business as usual? Bookshelf:The Nightingale Gallery by Paul DohertyEurope Must Unlock Its Geoeconomic Power by Agathe Demarais and Abraham NewmanThe Other '68ers: Student Protest and Christian Democracy in West Germany by Anna Von Der Goltz Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s MENA programme, and Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins, delve into shifting dynamics in the Middle East following potential changes in Syria. They discuss the implications of the Assad regime's possible fall and how it could reshape political and security landscapes. The conversation also highlights Iran’s evolving foreign policy, especially amid U.S. changes, and the new alliances forming in the region, showcasing a future marked by uncertainty and adaptation.

Marie Dumoulin, Director of ECFR’s Wider Europe programme, and Jeremy Shapiro, Head of ECFR’s Washington office, delve into the shifting tides of U.S. foreign policy amid Donald Trump’s potential re-election. They discuss the rising conversation around a ceasefire and what it could mean for the war in Ukraine. With Trump’s new envoy, General Kellogg, emerging, they review military strategies and the urgency of European nations to bolster their own security. The pair also highlight the complexities of Ukraine’s mobilization and the geopolitical stakes involved.

Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR's MENA programme and expert on Middle Eastern politics, shares keen insights on the nuanced ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. He discusses the motivations behind this agreement, highlighting Hezbollah's significant losses and external pressures. The conversation navigates the complex geopolitical landscape involving the US and France, the implications for Lebanese politics, and the uncertain future of the Gaza conflict. Barnes-Dacey’s analysis sheds light on the delicate balance of power and the potential for renewed tensions.

José Ignacio Torreblanca, a senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Madrid office, and Pawel Zerka, also a senior policy fellow, dive into Brazil’s nuanced international role. They discuss Brazil's strategic positioning amid global tensions, especially during the recent G20 summit. The conversation highlights Brazil's ambitions for South-South cooperation and its new climate policies. They also examine the domestic impact of Donald Trump’s politics on Brazilian public opinion and the future of far-right movements in Latin America.

In this insightful discussion, Célia Belin reveals the anxious mindset in France following Trump's election, while Piotr Buras analyzes the shifting political alliances in Poland. Anna Kuchenbecker shares the implications for Germany's recent political upheaval, and Arturo Varvelli highlights Italy's complex relations under Giorgia Meloni's leadership. The guests delve into how Trump's presidency may reshape European security, economic strategies, and diplomatic relations, urging a more unified European front in the face of emerging global challenges.

On 6 November, the same day that Donald Trump was re-elected as US president, Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed his minister of finance, Christian Lindner – and the country’s ‘traffic light’ coalition government collapsed. Since then, an interim government has been in place: but its future is uncertain amid a rapidly changing world.This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe, ECFR’s editorial director, Janka Oertel, ECFR senior policy fellow and director of its Asia programme, and Jana Puglierin, senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Berlin office, to discuss the collapse of the German government coalition. What are the plans for the interim government? Who is Jörg Kukies? What happens if CDU leader Friedrich Merz doesn’t help Scholz out? What does the coalition collapse mean for budget, spending, and the debt break? And how will it impact Germany’s foreign policy, especially considering the war in Ukraine and Trump’s imminent return to the White House? This podcast was recorded on 8 November 2024Bookshelf:Ein deutscher Kanzler: Olaf Scholz, der Krieg und die Angst | Der Kanzlerberichterstatter schreibt das Porträt des Kanzlers aus nächster Nähe by Daniel BrösslerNo Trade Is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America's Workers by Robert LighthizerFreiheitsschock: Eine andere Geschichte Ostdeutschlands von 1989 bis heute by Ilko-Sascha KowalczukBetter firefighting: Readying Europe for an age between war and peace by Nicu Popescu and Laurence BooneDemocracy and war: Politics and Identity in a time of global threats by Norbert Röttgen Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The polls have closed, the counting is almost over, and it is certain: there will be a second Donald Trump administration. With his historic and unprecedent second victory, the Republican party not only won the electoral college, but also regained control of the Senate – and look set to gain control of the House of Representatives and win the popular vote, too. In swing states Trump’s voter based turned out in force, while demographic shifts away from the Democrats paint a gloomy picture for Kamala Harris.This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, ECFR associate senior policy fellow, and Jeremy Shapiro, research director and ECFR’s US programme director, to discuss the results of the US election 2024. Who turned out for Trump and why? What did Trump do right and what did Harris do wrong? What will a second Trump administration mean for international relations and US foreign policy? How should European leaders respond to the changing political landscape in the US? And what mistakes should they avoid in the era of Trump 2.0? This podcast was recorded on 6 November 2024Bookshelf:Polostan by Neal StephensonImagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term by Célia Belin, Majda Ruge, and Jeremy ShapiroTrust by Hernan DiazLeurs enfants après eux by Nicolas Mathieu Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.