Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

Ellie Geranmayeh, Deputy Director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, shares insights on the Israel-Iran conflict from the Iranian perspective, focusing on European diplomacy. Joining her is Eran Etzion, former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council, who discusses Israel’s strategic challenges and military preparedness. They dive into the potential repercussions of U.S. involvement, the erosion of trust within Iran, and the pressing need for diplomatic solutions amidst rising tensions.

Ellie Geranmayeh, the Deputy Director of the ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme and expert on Iran, delves into the repercussions of Israel's extensive airstrikes on Iran, targeting critical military and nuclear sites. She discusses Iran's potential retaliatory strategies, including drone attacks, and the urgency of the situation as U.S.-Iran nuclear talks spiral towards collapse. The conversation highlights the geopolitical landscape, examining how Europe can play a crucial role in easing tensions and preventing a large-scale regional conflict.

This discussion features Dan Caldwell, a former senior adviser at the Pentagon, and Curt Mills, executive editor of the American Conservative. They explore the shifting landscape of American foreign policy under Trump, emphasizing a departure from traditional military buildup. The conversation navigates complex issues like Iran, Ukraine, and China, detailing internal conflicts and conservative anti-globalism. They also touch on the necessity for European nations to bolster their defense, accompanied by thoughtful book recommendations that shed light on historical contexts.

Alberto Rizzi, an ECFR policy fellow based in Rome and author of 'Markets, Migrants, Microchips,' dives into the complex topic of Europe’s demographic transition. He explores the implications of a shrinking and aging population on geopolitical power. Rizzi discusses the contrasting experiences of European nations like Germany and Italy versus France and the UK. He emphasizes the necessity for Europe to strengthen international ties, particularly with Africa and the Indo-Pacific, in light of shifting demographics and labor demands.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director general at the Royal United Services Institute and former Labour government advisor, for an Emergency Room episode dissecting the UK’s newly unveiled Strategic Defence Review (SDR). Prime minister Keir Starmer has committed to increasing defence spending to 3% GDP by 2030, expanding the UK’s military capabilities with 12 attack submarines, boosting munitions production, and possibly reviving an air-launched nuclear capability. Together Mark and Malcolm discuss how—amid Russia’s war in Ukraine and America’s talk of reducing its European presence—the SDR focuses on leveraging AI and uncrewed systems, as well as a “NATO first, Europe first” approach. They also consider how to balance transatlantic relations with closer EU defence cooperation. Can Britain drive a technological and geopolitical shift? Or will fiscal and industrial constraints limit its ambitions?The podcast was recorded on June 2nd, 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, for a 15-minute rapid-response episode dissecting the outcome of Poland’s presidential election. Yesterday, right-wing populist Karol Nawrocki, member of the Law and Justice party (PiS), edged out Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski by just 400,000 votes, crushing hopes of a liberal wave similar to Romania. Together, Mark and Piotr unpack the election’s profound impact on Poland’s fractured politics, what the outcome means for prime minister Donald Tusk’s struggling government, and the future of EU cohesion. Nawrocki set to block Tusk’s judicial reforms and amplify Euroscepticism—but what about Poland’s place in the EU? And how will the development impact the country’s support for Ukraine? This podcast was recorded on 2 June 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tiago Antunes, an ECFR senior fellow and former Portuguese official, teams up with Nicu Popescu, a distinguished policy fellow and former Moldovan deputy prime minister. They delve into the proposed European Preparedness Act, inspired by the US Defense Production Act, aiming to enhance the EU's crisis response capabilities. The discussion also highlights the challenges of energy resilience in Moldova and Ukraine, and the necessity for stronger collaboration among EU member states. Literary insights on diplomacy add an engaging twist to their conversation.

Julien Barnes-Dacey, ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme director, offers crucial insights into the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. He discusses the faltering Gaza Humanitarian Foundation's controversial role amid accusations of worsening displacement. The dialogue shifts to Europe's evolving stance, including possible sanctions and retuning trade ties with Israel. Can Europe effectively intervene, or is it too late to reshape the course of the crisis? Tune in to explore the complex interplay of humanitarian strategies and geopolitical implications.

Ivan Rogers, former UK permanent representative to the EU, and Camille Grand, former NATO assistant secretary general, discuss the recent EU-UK security and defense pact. They analyze the complexities of the agreement and its implications for Britain’s position in Europe. Topics include how the UK's increased demands have altered its leverage and the potential fallout for domestic politics. The conversation also touches on the evolving landscape of trade relations and the necessity for new defense frameworks in light of global security challenges, particularly concerning Ukraine.

In this engaging discussion, Piotr Buras, the head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, shares his expertise on the recent elections in Poland and Romania. He highlights the surprising victory of Romania’s liberal candidate Dan Barna against far-right challenger George Simion. The conversation dives into Poland's tight presidential race between Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, examining the challenges facing liberalism amidst rising populism. Buras also explores the broader implications for Europe’s political landscape and the potential for liberal resurgence.