David Dutwin, Senior VP at NORC and Chief Scientist of AmeriSpeak, and Nathaniel Rakich, Senior Editor at FiveThirtyEight, dive into the intricate world of polling and surveys. They discuss the nuances of survey design, the challenges of measuring public opinion, and how polling impacts democracy. The pair highlights the importance of accuracy in data collection and the evolving methodologies that aim to enhance polling reliability. They also tackle the complexities of interpreting polling averages and the significance of exit polls in understanding electoral outcomes.

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, an expert in statistics and risk communication, dives into the vital role of trustworthy data in politics. He discusses the impact of white hat bias on evidence interpretation and highlights the UK's efforts in maintaining statistical integrity through the Office for Statistics Regulation. The conversation covers the misuse of statistics in campaigns and how emotions shape our understanding of numbers. David also shares a manifesto for communicating political statistics effectively, urging clarity and accountability in data presentation.

Ranthony Clark, an NSF postdoctoral fellow at Duke University focused on mathematics and social justice, discusses her work identifying communities of interest in Ohio’s redistricting. Jiajie Luo, a recent UCLA PhD graduate, dives into how topological data analysis uncovers polling site coverage gaps in urban areas. The conversation highlights innovative approaches to fair representation and the importance of community engagement, revealing how mathematics can drive democratic accessibility.

Join Andrea Mock, a data scientist at Aura, Gunnar Carlsson, a former Stanford professor, Samin Aref, a university assistant professor, and Zachary Neal, a psychology professor as they explore the intersection of mathematics and political coalitions. They discuss how simplicial complexes can model coalition stability, the nuances of cluster analysis in the U.S. House, and uncover hidden coalitions through bill co-sponsorship data. Their fascinating insights reveal the complex dynamics driving political alliances amidst the current election landscape.

Ismar Volić, a mathematics professor and director of the Institute for Mathematics and Democracy, teams up with Theodore R. Johnson, a scholar of Black electoral politics and Washington Post columnist. They delve into how math shapes apportionment in the U.S. Congress and the historical rivalry between Jefferson and Hamilton over rounding methods. The duo discusses the flaws of the Electoral College, potential reforms for fairer voting, and how statistical techniques could enhance democratic representation. Brace for a blend of humor, history, and enlightening insights!

IMSI is very proud to announce that Carry the Two is back and with a new co-host, IMSI’s new Director of Communications and Engagement Sam Hansen! We in the United States are deep in the middle of a major national election, and over half of the world’s population also have elections in 2024. This is why Carry the Two is going to focus on the intersection of mathematics and democracy for our new season. In this episode, the first episode of our mathematics and democracy season, we speak with mathematician Ismar Volić of Wellesley College and Director of the Institute for Mathematics and Democracy and Victoria Mooers, an economics PhD student at Columbia University. We discuss what mathematics has to say about our current plurality voting system, how switching to preference ranking votings systems could limit polarization and negative campaigning, and why too much delegation causes problems for those pushing for Liquid Democracy.   Find our transcript here: Google Doc or .txt file Curious to learn more? Check out these additional links: Ismar Volić Making Democracy Count: How Mathematics Improves Voting, Electoral Maps, and Representation  Institute for Mathematics and Democracy Victoria Mooers Liquid Democracy. Two Experiments on Delegation in Voting Follow more of IMSI’s work: www.IMSI.institute, (twitter) @IMSI_institute, (mastodon) https://sciencemastodon.com/@IMSI, (instagram) IMSI.institute Music by Blue Dot Sessions The Institute for Mathematical and Statistical Innovation (IMSI) is funded by NSF grant DMS-1929348

Find our transcript here: LINK Follow more of IMSI’s work: www.IMSI.institute, (twitter) @IMSI_institute, (mastodon) https://sciencemastodon.com/@IMSI, (instagram) IMSI.institute Follow Sadie Witkowski: https://www.sadiewit.com/, @SadieWit This episode was audio engineered by Tyler Damme. Music by Blue Dot Sessions. The Institute for Mathematical and Statistical Innovation (IMSI) is funded by NSF grant DMS-1929348.

In this classic episode, we explore how GPT-3, a free online natural language processing artificial intelligence by Open AI, does and doesn’t work. Make sure to stick around until the end for an update on how AI is a core demand between the Writers Guild of America and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers. GPT-3 takes advantage of a whole new method of artificial intelligence research, called neural nets, to create plays, write code, and even roleplay as a historical figure. But what are the limitations to this kind of AI? University of Chicago professor Allyson Ettinger walks us through how GPT-3 manages to sound so human and where and how it fails in interesting ways. Find our transcript here: LINK Curious to learn more? Check out these additional links: When GPT-3 accidentally lies: https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/11/18/1063487/meta-large-language-model-ai-only-survived-three-days-gpt-3-science/ Microsoft’s chatbot that went racist: https://www.theverge.com/2016/3/24/11297050/tay-microsoft-chatbot-racist Is GPT-3 a replacement or tool for journalists: https://contently.net/2022/12/15/trends/chatgpt/ Entertainment Community Fund: https://entertainmentcommunity.org/ Science and Entertainment Exchange: http://scienceandentertainmentexchange.org/ AO3 and data scraping: https://www.transformativeworks.org/ai-and-data-scraping-on-the-archive/ Follow more of IMSI’s work: www.IMSI.institute, (twitter) @IMSI_institute, (mastodon) https://sciencemastodon.com/@IMSI, (instagram) IMSI.institute Follow Caitlin Parrish: @caitcrime Follow Allyson Ettinger: https://allenai.org/team, @AllysonEttinger This episode was audio engineered by Tyler Damme.  Music by Blue Dot Sessions. The Institute for Mathematical and Statistical Innovation (IMSI) is funded by NSF grant DMS-1929348.

Were you impressed by the underwater scenes in Avatar 2? Have you spent hours trying to figure out how they built the ice wall in Game of Thrones? Everything from big effects like these to smaller hidden visual effects like creating a skyline for an indoor set fall under the purview of visual effects. In this episode of Carry the Two, we get a behind-the-scenes tour of how Fuse FX effects supervisor Jamie Barty from I’m a Virgo leads a team to achieve these effects - and the copious amounts of mathematics that come into play! Find our transcript here: LINK Curious to learn more? Check out these additional links: Fuse FX: https://fusefx.com/ Course on the mathematics behind visual effects: https://www.fxphd.com/details/215/ I’m a Virgo: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13649510/ Entertainment Community Fund: https://entertainmentcommunity.org/ Science and Entertainment Exchange: http://scienceandentertainmentexchange.org/ Follow more of IMSI’s work: www.IMSI.institute, (twitter) @IMSI_institute, (mastodon) https://sciencemastodon.com/@IMSI, (instagram) IMSI.institute Follow Jamie Barty: https://www.imdb.com/name/nm4495160/ This episode was audio engineered by Tyler Damme.  Music by Blue Dot Sessions. The Institute for Mathematical and Statistical Innovation (IMSI) is funded by NSF grant DMS-1929348.

Could a fungus really wipe out the majority of humans, as shown in the HBO (Max) series The Last of Us? How realistic is the show’s portrayal of epidemiology? Guest and project scientist at UCLA, Tara Kerin explores these questions and how statistics are a core tool in her field of research. Find our transcript here: LINK Curious to learn more? Check out these additional links: The San Diego Comic Con International masquerade ball: https://www.comic-con.org/cci/newsletter/sunday How to calculate R0 (R-naught): https://globalhealth.harvard.edu/understanding-predictions-what-is-r-naught/ Tara’s work on HIV: https://cch.ucla.edu/about-atn-cares/ More on R0: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/1/17-1901_article More on the science in The Last of Us: https://www.npr.org/2023/02/17/1157842018/the-science-that-spawned-fungal-fears-in-hbos-the-last-of-us Entertainment Community Fund: https://entertainmentcommunity.org/ Science and Entertainment Exchange: http://scienceandentertainmentexchange.org/ Follow more of IMSI’s work: www.IMSI.institute, (twitter) @IMSI_institute, (mastodon) https://sciencemastodon.com/@IMSI, (instagram) IMSI.institute Follow Tara Kerin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tarakerin/, @tarakerin This episode was audio engineered by Tyler Damme.  Music by Blue Dot Sessions. The Institute for Mathematical and Statistical Innovation (IMSI) is funded by NSF grant DMS-1929348.