Carry the Two

Mathematics & Polling

Oct 31, 2024

David Dutwin, Senior VP at NORC and Chief Scientist of AmeriSpeak, and Nathaniel Rakich, Senior Editor at FiveThirtyEight, dive into the intricate world of polling and surveys. They discuss the nuances of survey design, the challenges of measuring public opinion, and how polling impacts democracy. The pair highlights the importance of accuracy in data collection and the evolving methodologies that aim to enhance polling reliability. They also tackle the complexities of interpreting polling averages and the significance of exit polls in understanding electoral outcomes.

43:38

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Episode guests

Nathaniel Rakich

David Dutwin

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

Effective survey design and probability sampling are crucial for accurately reflecting public opinion in democratic processes.

The distinction between surveys for detailed insights and polls for quick assessments highlights the complexities of gauging voter behavior during elections.

Deep dives

The Importance of Surveys in Democracy

Public opinion is a vital component of democracy, as surveys and polls serve as tools to gauge the thoughts and preferences of the populace. Surveys are conducted on known populations to provide accurate data, while election polling involves making predictions about a population that only emerges once voting is completed. Often, a substantial percentage of respondents in surveys may misrepresent their intentions to vote, leading to significant discrepancies in predicting actual voter behavior. This emphasizes the necessity for accurate methodologies in survey research to represent public opinion effectively.

Intro

2min

Understanding Surveys and Polls

11min

Mastering Survey Design and Data Accuracy

3min

Polling Dynamics in Democracy

9min

The Limitations of Polls and Last-Minute Election Dynamics

2min

The Role of Exit Polls in Democracy

5min

Understanding Polling Averages in Elections

10min

Engaging the Audience and Acknowledging Support

2min

We in the United States are deep in the middle of a major national election, and over half of the world’s population also have elections in 2024. This is why Carry the Two is going to focus on the intersection of mathematics and democracy for our new season.

In this, the sixth and final episode of our mathematics and democracy season, we dig into both how surveys and polls are conducted and how they are reported. For the former we are joined by David Dutwin Senior Vice President at NORC and Chief Scientist of Amerispeak and for the latter by Nathaniel Rakich Senior Editor and Senior Elections Analyst at FiveThirtyEight.

Find our transcript here: Google Doc or .txt file

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Music by Blue Dot Sessions

The Institute for Mathematical and Statistical Innovation (IMSI) is funded by NSF grant DMS-1929348