Carry the Two

Political Numbers & Statistics

Oct 23, 2024

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, an expert in statistics and risk communication, dives into the vital role of trustworthy data in politics. He discusses the impact of white hat bias on evidence interpretation and highlights the UK's efforts in maintaining statistical integrity through the Office for Statistics Regulation. The conversation covers the misuse of statistics in campaigns and how emotions shape our understanding of numbers. David also shares a manifesto for communicating political statistics effectively, urging clarity and accountability in data presentation.

32:44

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Sir David Spiegelhalter

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Quick takeaways

Political statistics are essential for democracy, with the UK Statistics Authority ensuring the accuracy and transparency needed for public trust.

Effective communication of statistical data, particularly during crises, highlights the importance of objectivity and overcoming biases in public discourse.

Deep dives

The Importance of Political Statistics

Political statistics play a crucial role in informing the electorate and supporting a functioning democracy. A centralized authority for statistics in the UK, such as the UK Statistics Authority, ensures that national statistics are produced consistently and transparently while also regulated for accuracy. This dual role of production and oversight aims to enhance public confidence in the data provided by the government, which is essential for informed decision-making among citizens. In contrast, the lack of such centralized oversight in other countries, like the U.S., often leads to skepticism regarding the validity of governmental statistics, highlighting the importance of a robust statistical framework.

Intro

2min

The Role of Statistics in Public Trust

8min

Understanding White Hat Bias and Statistics Regulation

4min

Misuse of Statistics in Political Campaigns

6min

Interpreting Statistical Claims and Emotional Responses

2min

Decoding Numbers and Emotions

9min

Engaging with the Podcast and Listener Contributions

2min

We in the United States are deep in the middle of a major national election, and over half of the world’s population also have elections in 2024. This is why Carry the Two is going to focus on the intersection of mathematics and democracy for our new season.

In this episode, the fifth episode of our mathematics and democracy season, we dig into political numbers and statistics. Helping Sam and Sadie do the digging is Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, FRS, OBE, emeritus professor of statistics at the University of Cambridge, former Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge, past Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, and current non-executive Director at the UK Statistics Authority. David discusses why it is so important to be a trustworthy communicator, the watchdog work the UK’s Office of Statistics Regulation is engaging in, and his personal manifesto for those who share political numbers and statistics.

Find our transcript here: Google Doc or .txt file

Curious to learn more? Check out these additional links:

David Spiegelhalter

UK Statistics Authority

Art of Statistics

Art of Uncertainty

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Music by Blue Dot Sessions

The Institute for Mathematical and Statistical Innovation (IMSI) is funded by NSF grant DMS-1929348