Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss his "surprisingly optimistic" outlook for the US economy in 2024. This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 30, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our Substack or Supercast pages. Content Highlights The outlook for the economy is surprisingly optimistic given the set-up going in to last year (1:30); The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates for some time (2:39); Can stocks continue to advance without rate cuts? The outlook for small caps and mid-caps... (6:35); The outlook for bonds: surprisingly constructive even if there aren't rate cuts right away (10:05); How the economy is breaking down geographically in the US... (17:01); Commercial real estate is 'the canary in the coal mine' but nowhere near as pervasive as subprime residential pre-2008... (24:36); The guest's take on the impact of this year's US presidential election (28:15); Top concerns start with deficit spending... (33:23); An economist's take on the AI revolution (39:28). More on the Guest Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com; Published insights from Commerce Trust Co.

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics discusses the economy and markets in 2024. Topics include the Fed's influence, recovery in earnings, deflationary shock in goods prices, interest rates, bond rally, yield curve inversions, and stock outlook.

This podcast episode was recorded Dec. 20, 2023 and made available exclusively -- without ads or announcements -- for premium subscribers that same day. This is just one of the benefits of becoming a premium subscriber. The others are detailed on our Supercast or Substack pages.   Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, re-joins the podcast to discuss his views going into 2024 and the likelihood there won't be a 'soft landing' for the economy next year. Content Highlights Consensus estimates for 2024 are going to be wrong, just like they were for this year and every year before it (2:12); Coming in to this year the banking sector was a concern, though as it turned out for the wrong reasons (4:39); The catalyst for the reversal this fall and the new, dovish Fed (7:26); The contrarian call is that they're won't be a soft landing -- or a stock market crash (11:44); Possible explanation for the 'Fed pivot' (16:48); How the guest is allocating assets going into 2024 (23:56); Artificial Intelligence (AI) discussion (29:02). More on Kyrill Asatur and Centerfin: Website: Centerfin.co; Twitter: @WallStHobbes; LinkedIn page; Facebook: CenterfinHQ; Instagram: @CenterfinHQ. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.

Jared Dillian, a financial analyst and author, discusses his bullish views on short-term Treasuries and his less optimistic outlook for the US economy. He also talks about his career at Lehman Brothers, the risks of inflation, and the importance of job security in finance.

This podcast episode was recorded on Nov. 15, 2023 and released to premium subscribers the following day --without ads. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast. Kevin T. Carter, founder and chief investment officer of EMQQ Global, joins the podcast to discuss opportunities in emerging and frontier market stocks. His first lesson: don't bother with the indexes. The real opportunities are to be found in individual stocks. Content Highlights The first issue with emerging market investing is the index. These do not accurately reflect the real opportunities (1:19); Individual stocks, especially of technology companies, have performed far better than the underlying index (6:25); There are three mega-trends that point to emerging markets growth over the long term (8:03); South America's E-commerce giant is not in any EM index. Neither is Brazilian digital bank Nu Holdings (15:14); A broad discussion of China, where things are not always as they appear in the western media... (19:22); Right now all eyes are on India. The story there is still in the early innings, but unfortunately options are limited for investors limited to US exchanges... (42:13); Other markets in South Asia also offer compelling opportunities. Especially Bangladesh (48:58). More Information on the Guest LinkedIn: TheKevinTCarter; Website: EMQQGlobal.com.

This episode was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 26 without ads or announcements. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack or Supercast. Tom Carney, co-head of fixed-income at Weitz Investments, joins the podcast to discuss his (perhaps surprisingly) optimistic view of bond and credit markets. Content Highlights Carney's views on the bond market. Interest rates have created a much-improved, encouraging environment for investors (1:33); Opportunities include the non-corporate bond market, specifically the asset-backed securities market (5:38); The guest has a unique view into consumer lending. There are defaults, but not more than usual (10:37); Discussion of the mortgage-backed securities market. There too, defaults are not particularly prevalent (13:05); How big of a concern is the Fed? (24:25); Background on the guest (29:57); What about his concerns facing markets at present? (38:09). For more information on the guest, visit the website WeitzInvestments.com.

A short actionable highlights reel from this podcast was released to premium subscribers last Thursday, Oct. 12 -- the same day it was recorded. The full episode and transcript were made available to premium subscribers the following day. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast. David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, Fed, stocks, and bonds. Not investment advice. Content Highlights Views on the bond market (1:31); The Federal Reserve will likely pause again at its next meeting, on Nov. 1 (6:41); Views on stocks (11:30); Once consensus emerges that the Fed is 'done' it will remove a major wall of worry and headwind the magnitude of which few are anticipating... (16:14); Targets for S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Industrials, 10-year yields... (21:21); How the 'bust' scenario will play out (27:02), To contact David Hunter and find out about subscribing to his newsletter, you need to send him a direct message on Twitter. His handle is @DaveHContrarian. The host will not forward your messages.

Phil Pecsok, founder of Anacapa Advisors, provides a contrarian investing primer, citing blaring contrarian signals from past cycles and sharing valuable lessons from his 30-year Wall Street career. He discusses the 'Rule of 3' in contrarian investing, his views on cryptos, and why he believes stocks are overbought. Additionally, he reflects on his involvement in sports betting and shares insights on the importance of patience and learning from both successful and unsuccessful investments.

Ayesha Tariq, Co-founder of MacroVisor, discusses the contrarian view of a hard landing for the US economy, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the outlook for emerging markets, the bullish forecast for copper, and the risks of AI hype.

This podcast was released to premium subscribers on Aug. 24. Become a premium subscriber on Substack or Supercast.  Cormac Kinney, founder and CEO of Diamond Standard, joins the podcast to discuss the concept of diamonds as an asset class: why they haven't become an investable commodity like other precious metals, how that may be changing, and what investors can expect in terms of correlation to other assets and alpha. Content Highlights Why haven't diamonds become an investable asset class like precious metals or other commodities? (1:11); Some of the economics behind diamond production and why supply is dropping dramatically (4:45); How Diamond Standard is turning diamonds into a fungible commodity (this is where the bars in the cover photo comes in) (7:55); What are diamonds used for practically, other than jewelry? (11:06); Diamonds' correlation to other asset classes over time (15:33); Diamond futures are coming. That will introduce much-needed liquidity (21:45); Background on the guest (29:30); More About the Guest Website: DiamondStandard.co; Twitter: @DiamondStandard and @CormacKinney; LinkedIn: DiamondStandard; Instagram: @DiamondStandard.co; FaceBook: DiamondStandardCo.