The Contrarian Investor Podcast

Marc Chapman of Bannockburn Global Forex rejoins the podcast to discuss all things US election and the impact a Trump victory would have on economics and financial markets. This podcast episode was recorded Monday, Oct. 28, 2024 and was made available for premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack. Content Highlights The impact of a Trump victory next Tuesday is seen as greater as the impact of a Harris victory. What this means for markets and the economy (2:11); What if Trump doesn't win? That has become the contrarian take (3:45); How it all might affect Mexico, the US' largest trading partner (5:40); The US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement is up for review next year. Expect more concessions from Mexico regardless of who's in the White House (and Congress) (12:22); However the outlook is not all bad for all Mexican securities... (15:40); Concerns Trump will try to limit the Federal Reserve's independence (19:38); Don't overlook the possibility of a recession early in the next president's term (25:44); Trump victory may lead to more mergers and acquisitions (26:50). More From the Guest Website: MarcToMarket.com; X: @marcmakingsense.

Flip Pidot, the founder of American Civics Exchange, shares his expertise on political prediction markets and insights into the shifting tides of the upcoming election. He discusses why recent polling trends indicate a strong likelihood of a Trump victory and a Republican Congress. With about $40 million in pro-Trump bets and favorable early voting data, Pidot reveals how these dynamics could impact investors. He also touches on the potential for electoral disputes and the fascinating role of prediction markets in hedging political risks.

Tony Greer of TG Macro joins the podcast to discuss his bullish view on industrial commodities, especially oil, AI, the upcoming presidential election, and more. This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the next day. More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack. There are a few points in this episode where adult language is used. Listener discretion is advised. Content Highlights Why energy commodities, precious and base metals are all set up to rally (1:31); China's stimulus package boosted industrial metals. The bounce should not be limited to the short term... (4:57); There are a number of ways to express the 'long commodities' trade. ETFs may be the simplest... (8:59) The bullish case for uranium (10:37); Don't fade the AI story (14:20); The inevitable cryptocurrency discussion (17:04); Background on the guest (22:30); Listener question: What's the inflection point for a move higher in industrial commodities? (26:10); Election discussion (28:17). More Information on the Guest Website: TgMacro.com; Twitter/X: @TgMacro; Substack: @TgMacro.

Hear podcast episodes without ads and before regular listeners by subscribing to our premium offering. Megan Gorman joins the podcast to discuss her book 'All the Presidents' Money; How the Men Who Governed America Governed Their Money,' in an effort to locate the contrarian investors. There are several, led by Gerald Ford. The guest also discusses the investments of year's presidential and vice presidential candidates. Content Highlights The most contrarian investor among US presidents? Gerald Ford, the man who pioneered sitting on corporate boards and the presidential speaker circuit (1:24); Perhaps unsurprisingly US presidents were quite conservative with their investments, Ford included... (6:37); Many presidential investments were also contrarian by avoiding (individual) public equities (11:04); Franklin D. Roosevelt was one of several presidents who entered the White House as wealthy individuals -- and blew some of it by failing to perform basic due diligence (15:51); Another oft-overlooked president, Calvin Coolidge, supplies a classic example of mis-timing the market... (21:11); What we know about the investments of this year's candidates for president and vice president (25:52); Another very unsuccessful investor: Ulysses S. Grant. One of the most successful: George Washington (37:14); Presidents probably don't need to own individual stocks. Vice President Kamala Harris exemplifies this (47:18) More Information on the Guest Website: AllThePresidentsMoney.com; X: @Megan_E_Gorman.

James Fishback, founder of Azoria Partners, dives into the anticipated shifts in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the economic disparities facing lower-income groups. He highlights the strategic implications of a potential Trump 2.0, with crucial insights into labor market dynamics. Fishback champions the transformative power of AI in driving productivity, while suggesting that Argentina presents exciting investment opportunities. His lively analysis touches on crypto and the ethics of using immigrant labor, providing a thought-provoking exploration of today's market.

Colin White of Verecan Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy and why he considers the likelihood of a 'soft landing' to have increased... This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024 and made available for premium subscribers the following day. More information on premium subscriptions is avalailable on our Substack page.. Content Highlights Economic indicators are pointing to increased chances of a 'soft landing'... (1:10); The Federal Reserve (and other central banks) have 'bullets in their gun' in the form of interest rate cuts, should the need arise. Another reason for confidence (3:27); Employment numbers are the most important datapoint to watch right now (6:41); The Age of Finfluencers and dangers it has wrought (14:32); Central banks have a responsibility to act in the best interests of the general public. If they stray from that responsibility, the structure that governs central banks can change (19:29); Background on the guest (23:31); No, real estate is not always a good investment (34:11); AI discussion (37:41). More on the Guest: Website: Verecan.com; Podcast: Barenaked Money; LinkedIn.

Chad Olivier of Baton Rouge, La.-based The Olivier Group joins the podcast to discuss his view of markets and why he is bullish about bonds and technology stocks. This podcast episode was recorded July 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. More information on premium subscriptions is available here. Content Highlights The view of the bond market has changed with the Fed (1:18) The Olivier Group started adding bond exposure through ETFs in the first quarter and expects to add to it... (3:18); The 10-year yield should drop to the 3% range "by this time next year" (4:43); Small caps have recovered lately but the guest is less bullish there (9:31); Technology stocks are much better positioned than in previous cycles (10:56); Municipal bonds may also present an opportunity... (15:41); Background on the guest (20:05); Oil markets could present another opportunity, especially large cap, dividend-paying companies (23:58); The political outlook and its impact on markets (25:51). For more information on the guest visit the website OlivierGroup.com.

Dana Samuelson, president of the American Gold Exchange, joins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss why gold prices are set up to rally further -- even after a 20% rise so far this year. This podcast episode was recorded on Friday, July 19. 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following business day. For information on becoming a premium subscriber -- and the host of other benefits it involves -- visit our Substack. Content Highlights Gold is trading right near all-time highs. Can there really be more room for upside? (1:48); One thing missing from the equation for still higher gold prices is interest rate cuts... (3:36); Another thing missing is fear in the market (5:07); Gold has rallied 20% so far this year. A Fed rate cut will supply another 10%. $3000/oz. gold is in sight... (8:36); What of the argument that there's no tangible use for gold? (11:20); Why gold coins are preferable to bars (14:30); Background on the guest (19:39); Quarters and dimes vintage 1964 are 90% silver (26:40); View on digital currencies and Bitcoin. There is a place for it... (33:20); How much of one's portfolio should be earmarked for gold and precious metals? (37:15) More Information on the Guest Twitter/X: @DanaSamuelson99; LinkedIn: @American-Gold-Exchange-Inc; Website: AmerGold.com; YouTube: AmericanGoldExchangeAustin.

Author Darius Foroux discusses his stoic investment philosophy, emphasizing the 90/10 portfolio split. He shares insights on individual stock holdings like the Dutch Stripe and combating FOMO. The podcast explores stoicism's role in investing and the guest's journey post-financial crisis.

Leo Schmidt, founder of family office River Eddy Capital, rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on economy, markets, and where to invest capital in what may be a 'stagflation lite' environment. This podcast episode was recorded on Friday, June 7, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following Monday. Visit the Substack or Supercast for more information about premium subscriptions. Content Highlights "Labor markets are way too hot." There will be "no landing" (1:48); Non-farm payrolls came out much stronger than anticipated. What this says about the labor market (4:59); 'Stagflation lite' (8:31); Our views of credit creation are outdated. The shadow banking system has replaced commercial banks as the primary source of credit. What this means (11:59); The Federal Reserve probably needs to cut rates. Could they? Probably not -- this year (22:21); What does an investor do now? First up: Stocks that are AI/Nvidia (NVDA) plays. Celestica (CLS), Flex (FLEX), Sanmina (SANM), Jabil (JBL) (27:51); Pharma spin-outs: Haleon (HLN), Kenvue (KVUE), Organon (OGN), Viatris (VTRS) (31:54); Dollar stores, especially Dollar Tree (DLTR), are poised to outperform once there is an economic slowdown (39:07); The bullish case for pipeline companies (46:59).