The Contrarian Investor Podcast

US Election 'Black Swans' Include Significant Chance of Political Violence

Nov 1, 2024

Mike Blythe, Chief Revenue Officer at Sigma7, brings his extensive national security expertise to the discussion. He outlines the heightened risks of political violence surrounding the upcoming US election, emphasizing the alarming predictions from security professionals. Blythe compares current sentiments to a 'tinderbox,' fueled by social media narratives that could ignite unrest. He also examines which parts of the economy are vulnerable and how geopolitical tensions may influence the volatile climate, offering vital insights into navigating these uncertain times.

32:04

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Episode guests

Mike Blythe

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Quick takeaways

As the 2024 elections approach, there's an escalating risk of political violence driven by both internal polarization and external influences.

Businesses in urban areas must implement comprehensive preparedness strategies to mitigate potential unrest and protect their operations effectively.

Deep dives

The Rise of Political Violence

The episode outlines the escalating risk of political violence in the U.S. as the 2024 elections approach, emphasizing the concerns of external influences from hostile nations and internal polarization among the population. The conversation highlights the alarming acceptance of violent actions as a means to achieve political outcomes, drawing parallels to historical instances like the Troubles in Northern Ireland. A concerning statistic reveals that 91% of senior security professionals anticipate physical violence surrounding the elections, with a significant portion believing it would be premeditated rather than spontaneous. The discussion underscores the urgency for citizens and businesses to remain vigilant during this period of heightened tension.

Intro

4min

Risks of Political Violence in the Upcoming US Election

10min

Civil Discord and Its Implications

5min

Identifying Warning Signals for Political Violence

2min

Turbulent Times: Political Violence and Geopolitical Tensions

10min

Conclusion and Resources for Understanding Complex Risks

2min

https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season6/us-election-black-swans-chances-political-violence/Dr. Mike Blyth of risk services company Sigma7, joins the podcast to discuss 'unknown unknowns' facing next week's US election.

Blyth is a career national security professional, having worked for US and British civil and military operations globally.

This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers that day. To learn about premium subscription options, visit our Substack. Content Highlights

Background on the guest and why he is qualified to speak of all things national and international security (1:42);
Main concerns entering the election. External and internal agitators have raised the risk of political violence (4:57);
Gaming out the various scenarios. Almost all involve violence, especially if former President Donald Trump is not elected (7:26);
The narrative on social media and elsewhere is consistent with what typically presages violence. "It's a tinderbox. We're waiting for the flame to be lit" (11:26);
What parts of the economy might be most at risk and which might be more resilient (16:49);
What about geopolitical risks? (20:42).

For more about the guest, visit the website S7risk.com.

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The Contrarian Investor Podcast

US Election 'Black Swans' Include Significant Chance of Political Violence

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

The Rise of Political Violence

Assessing Potential Flashpoints

Strategic Preparations for Businesses

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts