US Election 'Black Swans' Include Significant Chance of Political Violence
Nov 1, 2024
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Mike Blythe, Chief Revenue Officer at Sigma7, brings his extensive national security expertise to the discussion. He outlines the heightened risks of political violence surrounding the upcoming US election, emphasizing the alarming predictions from security professionals. Blythe compares current sentiments to a 'tinderbox,' fueled by social media narratives that could ignite unrest. He also examines which parts of the economy are vulnerable and how geopolitical tensions may influence the volatile climate, offering vital insights into navigating these uncertain times.
As the 2024 elections approach, there's an escalating risk of political violence driven by both internal polarization and external influences.
Businesses in urban areas must implement comprehensive preparedness strategies to mitigate potential unrest and protect their operations effectively.
Deep dives
The Rise of Political Violence
The episode outlines the escalating risk of political violence in the U.S. as the 2024 elections approach, emphasizing the concerns of external influences from hostile nations and internal polarization among the population. The conversation highlights the alarming acceptance of violent actions as a means to achieve political outcomes, drawing parallels to historical instances like the Troubles in Northern Ireland. A concerning statistic reveals that 91% of senior security professionals anticipate physical violence surrounding the elections, with a significant portion believing it would be premeditated rather than spontaneous. The discussion underscores the urgency for citizens and businesses to remain vigilant during this period of heightened tension.
Assessing Potential Flashpoints
The guests analyze various scenarios that could lead to violence before and after the election, identifying key moments that may act as catalysts for unrest. They predict a timeline of escalating tensions, from pre-election stress to the potential outbreak of violence post-election results, especially in urban areas and swing states. The dynamics of crowd behavior are discussed, illustrating how individuals within larger groups can quickly transition from calm to violent under provocation. This insight highlights the unpredictability of large gatherings and the need for readiness to respond to any coordinated actions by agitators operating within these public spheres.
Strategic Preparations for Businesses
The discussion shifts towards the implications for businesses, particularly those located in urban and politically volatile areas, emphasizing the importance of contingency planning. Businesses are encouraged to develop preparedness strategies to protect their operations, employees, and assets amidst growing unrest. The conversation prescribes proactive measures including training programs for staff, updated crisis management plans, and real-time monitoring of emerging threats to facilitate a rapid and effective response. This foresight into potential risks serves as a crucial reminder for companies to cultivate resilience and readiness in the face of unpredictable socio-political climates.
https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season6/us-election-black-swans-chances-political-violence/Dr. Mike Blyth of risk services company Sigma7, joins the podcast to discuss 'unknown unknowns' facing next week's US election.
Blyth is a career national security professional, having worked for US and British civil and military operations globally.
This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers that day. To learn about premium subscription options, visit our Substack. Content Highlights
Background on the guest and why he is qualified to speak of all things national and international security (1:42);
Main concerns entering the election. External and internal agitators have raised the risk of political violence (4:57);
Gaming out the various scenarios. Almost all involve violence, especially if former President Donald Trump is not elected (7:26);
The narrative on social media and elsewhere is consistent with what typically presages violence. "It's a tinderbox. We're waiting for the flame to be lit" (11:26);
What parts of the economy might be most at risk and which might be more resilient (16:49);
What about geopolitical risks? (20:42).
For more about the guest, visit the website S7risk.com.
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