Trend-Following Strategies for the New World Order: Doug Greenig, Florin Court Capital
Apr 24, 2024
auto_awesome
Dr. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital discusses a multi-asset trend-following model, lower electricity prices in Europe, potential bearish outlook for US stocks, China's competition with the US, Iran's strategic drone attack, challenges with enforcing sanctions, and concerns about US fiscal problems.
The era of the US as the sole superpower is over, with China posing a legitimate competition in economic and military power.
Trend-following strategy with 500 assets focuses on capturing medium-term changes, highlighting shifts like lower electricity prices in Europe.
US fiscal concerns and potential bearish outlook for stocks are influenced by populism, democratic government stages, and evolving global dynamics.
Deep dives
Changing World Dynamics: Implications of Geopolitical Shifts
The global balance of power is shifting as countries like China gain economic and military strength. The United States' dominance is evolving, and technological advancements are changing the military landscape. This transition can impact defense spending, supply chains, and political outcomes worldwide.
US-China Rivalry and Military Technology
China's military capabilities, including its missile and hypersonic technology, present challenges for traditional US military strategies. The focus on defense spending and technological advancements plays a crucial role in a changing global order.
Economic Prosperity and Resource Management
The Middle East, with its oil-based economies, showcases a transition towards sustainable practices and investments in new technologies. Countries like the United Arab Emirates prioritize long-term economic planning, offering insights into green tech and innovative initiatives.
Global Commodities and Economic Trends
Trends in commodities, such as copper, reflect economic growth and industrial dynamics. Exploration of alternative market assets, like onshore Chinese commodities and freight markets, provides valuable insights into the global economic landscape.
US Fiscal Challenges and Potential Solutions
The US faces fiscal challenges with growing debt and interest expenses. Various solutions, from taxation to financial repression, offer potential paths forward. These approaches, alongside considerations like AI-driven growth and equity market trends, shape the economic outlook.
This episode was recorded April 15, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or interruptions. More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack page.
Dr. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital joins the podcast to discuss his worldview -- one where the US is no longer the sole superpower -- the situation in the Middle East, US fiscal concerns, artificial intelligence, and trends in commodities.
And of course how this all impacts his trading strategy.
Content Highlights
The world has undergone many changes with the US emerging as its lone superpower. That era is over (2:09);
China is a legitimate competitor to the US. It's just having a bad moment due to the property market. But China is not going anywhere as an economic or military power (6:07);
The guest's trend-following model trades 500 assets and seeks to capture medium-term changes. What he looks for to enter and exit trades (16:52);
One trend is lower electricity prices in Europe (19:19);
Populism and the latter stage of democratic government make for a potentially bearish outlook for US stocks (27:15);
Background on the guest (41:04);
Iran is still a force in the Middle East and beyond. Discussion of the weekend drone attack on Israel, which may have been an attempt at making a point (48:40);
As Russia's economy illustrates, sanctions are hard to enforce. There may be inherent bias in many pro-Western analysis... (53:03);
US fiscal problems are real. The guest says it has "something like five years" before this takes a serious toll. Artificial intelligence may postpone this however (55:45);
Hypersonic missiles: One area where Russia and China have an edge over the US (57:45).