The Contrarian Investor Podcast

US Economy Too Strong for Fed, Where to Invest Now: Leo Schmidt, River Eddy Capital

Jun 14, 2024

50:17

Leo Schmidt, founder of family office River Eddy Capital, rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on economy, markets, and where to invest capital in what may be a 'stagflation lite' environment.

This podcast episode was recorded on Friday, June 7, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following Monday. Visit the Substack or Supercast for more information about premium subscriptions. Content Highlights

"Labor markets are way too hot." There will be "no landing" (1:48);
Non-farm payrolls came out much stronger than anticipated. What this says about the labor market (4:59);
'Stagflation lite' (8:31);
Our views of credit creation are outdated. The shadow banking system has replaced commercial banks as the primary source of credit. What this means (11:59);
The Federal Reserve probably needs to cut rates. Could they? Probably not -- this year (22:21);
What does an investor do now? First up: Stocks that are AI/Nvidia (NVDA) plays. Celestica (CLS), Flex (FLEX), Sanmina (SANM), Jabil (JBL) (27:51);
Pharma spin-outs: Haleon (HLN), Kenvue (KVUE), Organon (OGN), Viatris (VTRS) (31:54);
Dollar stores, especially Dollar Tree (DLTR), are poised to outperform once there is an economic slowdown (39:07);
The bullish case for pipeline companies (46:59).