

Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?
Ray Powell & Jim Carouso
Chart the world's new strategic crossroads. Join co-hosts Ray Powell, a 35-year U.S. Air Force veteran and Director of the celebrated SeaLight maritime transparency project, and Jim Carouso, a senior U.S. diplomat and strategic advisor, for your essential weekly briefing on the Indo-Pacific. Drawing on decades of on-the-ground military and diplomatic experience, they deliver unparalleled insights into the forces shaping the 21st century.From the U.S.-China strategic competition to the flashpoints of the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, we cut through the noise with practical, practitioner-focused analysis. Each episode goes deep on the region's most critical geopolitical, economic and security issues.We bring you conversations with the leaders and experts shaping policy, featuring some of the world's most influential voices, including:Senior government officials and ambassadorsDefense secretaries, national security advisors and four-star military officersLegislators and top regional specialistsC-suite business leadersThis podcast is your indispensable resource for understanding the complexities of alliances and regional groupings like AUKUS, ASEAN and the Quad; the strategic shifts of major powers like the U.S., China, Japan and India; and emerging challenges from economic statecraft to regional security.If you are a foreign policy professional, business leader, scholar, or a citizen seeking to understand the dynamics of global power, this podcast provides the context you need.Subscribe now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or your favorite platform.Produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media. Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, helping clients navigate the world’s most complex and dynamic markets.
Episodes
Mentioned books

Nov 28, 2025 • 47min
Why Should We Care if Indonesia's "Jakarta Model" for Critical Minerals is Bad for Indonesians? | with Dr. Alvin Camba
In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Dr. Alvin Camba, a sociologist who studies Southeast Asian political economies, China relations, and critical mineral supply chains. Camba, author of the New America article "The Jakarta Model is No Blueprint," critiques Indonesia's export ban on raw nickel and incentives for domestic refining, which have driven economic growth and positioned the country as a key EV battery supplier but have also resulted in severe human and environmental costs.Growth at what cost? Camba explains the "Jakarta model” - policies forcing mining firms to sell domestically, spurring smelters and industrial parks but creating oligopsonies where refiners dictate low prices, triggering a "race to the bottom" in mining practices. This has led to widespread environmental damage like air pollution, acid leakage, water contamination, land grabs, and health issues, including rising asthma and cancer rates near facilities since 2019, while workers endure 10-12 hour shifts over six-day weeks.Impressive parks, hidden harms: Inside sites like those in Sulawesi, visitors see advanced infrastructure with airports, ports, hotels, and thousands of workers, often funding local clinics and schools, which sustains public support despite scandals. Yet, mining outside these parks produces tailings dumps and forest clearance, while smelters emit pollutants into the air and rivers; in Kalimantan, bauxite processing creates radioactive red mud waste.Global copycats and Western challenges: Countries like Namibia, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, and the Philippines eye the model for capital influx, often ignoring downsides amid weakened environmental oversight and political ties to Chinese joint ventures dominating smelters. Camba urges slower development with strong regulations, consultations, and transparency; for the West, building refining capacity requires market incentives to counter China's cheap, dirty dominance, with short-term reserves bridging gaps amid U.S.-China standoffs over rare earths and semiconductors.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, on LinkedIn or on Facebook.👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Nov 21, 2025 • 47min
Why Should We Care if a Tribunal Just Sentenced Bangladesh’s Former Prime Minister to Death? | with Dr. Lailufar Yasmin
In this episode, host Ray Powell sits down with Dr. Lailufar Yasmin, a renowned political scientist at the University of Dhaka, to unpack Bangladesh's dramatic recent political crisis and explore why what happens in this densely populated South Asian nation matters to the broader Indo-Pacific regional stability.Recorded just one day after Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal sentenced former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death in absentia for crimes against humanity--this conversation provides crucial context for understanding a nation in transition. Powell and Dr. Yasmin discuss the uprising that toppled Hasina's government, the interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, and the geopolitical implications for great power competition in South Asia.Dr. Yasmin explains how the July 2024 student protests escalated into a nationwide uprising after Hasina's government responded with lethal force, killing over 1,400 protesters. The movement, known as the "July Uprising," ultimately forced Hasina to flee to India on August 5, 2024, ending her 15-year authoritarian rule. The conversation explores how Hasina transformed from a democracy icon into an increasingly autocratic leader who rigged elections, suppressed opposition, and dismantled democratic institutions.The episode delves into the "July Charter," a reform blueprint calling for constitutional changes including a bicameral parliament, proportional representation, prime ministerial term limits, and restoration of the caretaker government system. Dr. Yasmin discusses the upcoming February 2026 referendum and elections, explaining the challenges of ensuring credible democratic transition amid deep political divisions, the banning of the Awami League political party, and security concerns.The conversation reveals how India's strong historical support for Hasina and the Awami League—rooted in India's assistance during Bangladesh's 1971 War of Independence—has created tension following her ouster. Dr. Yasmin describes India's initial disinformation campaigns falsely blaming Pakistani intelligence for the uprising, and how the interim government's engagement with China has also caused concern in New Delhi. She argues that Bangladesh must pursue an independent foreign policy that serves its national interests rather than simply accommodating regional powers.The discussion also provides essential historical context, tracing Bangladesh's origins from the 1971 Liberation War when East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) fought for independence from West Pakistan, resulting in genocide that killed an estimated three million people. Dr. Yasmin explains how this history continues to shape contemporary politics, including emotional debates over justice and national identity.Dr. Yasmin also addresses the selection of Muhammad Yunus as interim leader, describing how the Nobel Peace Prize winner's global credibility and pioneering work in microcredit made him an acceptable figure to unite a divided nation. She discusses both the promise and challenges of his leadership, including concerns about whether the interim government can remain truly neutral given that many of its coordinators are former student protesters.Dr. Yasmin challenges Western misconceptions about Bangladesh, emphasizing the nation's resilience, innovation in climate adaptation, economic progress, and warm hospitality.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

Nov 14, 2025 • 49min
Why Should We Care if China is Waging a War for Our Minds? | with Andrew Jensen
In this insightful podcast episode, senior U.S. defense analyst Andrew Jensen joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to break down cognitive warfare—the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) key tactic for shaping perceptions, decisions, and narratives to achieve strategic goals without traditional military conflict. Leveraging his deep knowledge of Sino-Russian relations and information operations, Jensen explores how cognitive warfare targets human thought processes before, during, and after battles. Discover why the CCP invests heavily in these methods, drawing from its revolutionary history, and how they play out in the Indo-Pacific region, including the South China Sea, Taiwan, and beyond.Jensen defines cognitive warfare as the strategic manipulation of how individuals, adversaries, and societies think and perceive reality. Unlike the cyber domain's focus on "down code" (technical infrastructure), cognitive warfare operates on the "up-code" of human cognition to preempt and control battlefields. The CCP deploys this through its "Three Warfares" doctrine: public opinion warfare (crafting narratives), psychological warfare (influencing morale and self-perception), and legal warfare (exploiting international rules for advantage). These tactics blur together, with roots in early CCP strategies to dominate discourse and erode opposition.In South China Sea disputes, narrative warfare pushes CCP sovereignty claims like the nine-dash line to overshadow competing views, while psychological warfare boosts national pride through initiatives like tourist cruises to disputed islands. Legal warfare selectively ignores rulings, such as the 2016 arbitral decision, and enforces unilateral zones to confuse global norms and intimidate neighbors like the Philippines and Vietnam. Examples include one-sided environmental declarations in contested waters, which validate claims for Chinese audiences and heighten regional tensions.Beijing masterfully targets societal fissures in open societies, amplifying issues like U.S. military bases in Okinawa or political divides in the Philippines and Taiwan via social media bots and fake accounts to create doubt without direct attribution. In Taiwan, after the overt backing of the pro-unification Kuomintang backfired and strengthened the independence-focused Democratic Progressive Party, the CCP pivoted to covert co-optation of figures like retired officers. In Southeast Asia, these efforts aim to erode U.S. and Quad influence, positioning China as the region's natural leader while aligning with domestic nationalist narratives.Jensen recommends countering by injecting diverse perspectives into China through private media, culture, and soft power—outshining overt tools like Voice of America. For the U.S. and allies, building information resilience, avoiding adversarial mirror imaging, and cultivating critical thinking are essential to dismantle CCP narrative dominance.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Nov 7, 2025 • 53min
Why Should We Care About China’s Law of the Sea? | with Isaac Kardon
Episode 110 features Isaac Kardon, Senior Fellow for China Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of "China’s Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order." Kardon joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss how China uses domestic law, coast guard operations, and strategic ambiguity to reshape international maritime norms - especially in the South and East China Seas and the Yellow Sea.China’s Approach to Maritime Law: Kardon explains that China’s participation in international treaties, such as UNCLOS, differs fundamentally from rule-of-law societies like the U.S. Rather than constraining itself, China uses treaties as instruments for political and strategic advantage, showing significant flexibility in interpretation and enforcement.Global Impact of Indo-Pacific Maritime Order: The Indo-Pacific isn’t just a regional issue - what happens there affects global trade, technology supply chains, and the daily lives of people worldwide. The COVID pandemic and events like the Ever Given incident in the Suez Canal reveal the fragility of maritime order, making disruptions to the global order dangerous for prosperity and peace.Frictions in the South China Sea: China’s ratification of UNCLOS presented challenges, notably the framework that limits China’s ability to claim “historic” zones like the “nine-dash line.” Despite arbitration rulings against Chinese claims, China responds in ways that undermine the effectiveness of international mechanisms, often using ambiguous claims and building capacity to assert control regardless of legal setbacks.Law, Power, and Regional Responses: The episode highlights the contrast between the legalistic approaches of “cricket-playing nations” and China’s more instrumental use of law. Small states in the region rely on legal frameworks for protection, but China’s power allows it to bend or contest those rules.Recent Developments: China has expanded its exclusion zone around Scarborough Shoal and used environmental pretext to assert control, demonstrating a pattern of using lawfare as a tool for broader strategic objectives.Future Directions: The discussion covers the gridlock over the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct process, the decline of sentimentality about U.S. leadership in maritime law, and the general skepticism about international law’s ability to constrain powerful states. The hosts discuss the potential for the Indo-Pacific maritime disputes to become the setting for geopolitical drama, involving all facets from local fishermen and coast guards to great power competition.Kardon argues that China’s lawfare bolsters its capabilities: strength and presence on the water matter just as much, if not more, than legal arguments. He describes the situation as “possession is nine-tenths of the law”—a reality that smaller states cannot match with mere legal claims.Policy Takeaways: International law matters less when powerful states refuse to be constrained. China’s approach threatens regional cooperation and legal consistency.The episode calls for listeners to recognize how Indo-Pacific maritime order shapes global stability, trade, and strategic realities - and provides both practical insights and a thought-provoking narrative, encouraging listeners to see Indo-Pacific maritime disputes not just as legal questions but as complex dramas involving power, law, and the future of global cooperation.👉 Visit Isaac's web site, or follow him on X, @IBKardon👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Oct 31, 2025 • 47min
Why Should We Care if China Doesn’t Really Want to Rule the World? | with David C. Kang
In this episode, China scholar David C. Kang joins Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss his recent Foreign Affairs article, “What China Doesn’t Want”, which argues that Beijing's geostrategic ambitions are much more limited than Washington's foreign policy establishment believes. Kang challenges the prevailing consensus that China seeks regional hegemony and global primacy, arguing instead that China's aims are narrower, more domestic, and more status quo than commonly assumed.A contrarian perspective on China's intentions: Kang and his co-authors analyzed approximately 12,000 Chinese articles and hundreds of Xi Jinping speeches, concluding that systematic analysis reveals China's priorities are internal stability and Taiwan, not global domination or territorial conquest of neighboring states.The debate over regional threat perceptions: While Kang argues that countries like Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan view China more pragmatically than Washington does, the hosts push back with examples of regional maritime tensions, arguing that frontline states see China as a more serious threat than Kang credits.Taiwan as the central flashpoint: All three agree China prefers a "boa constrictor" strategy of gradual pressure over military invasion, but disagree on how to interpret low-probability war risks and whether recent U.S.-Taiwan moves constitute status quo changes.Gray-zone success and maritime expansion: Powell argues China is the 21st century's most successful maritime expansionist power, achieving objectives through gray-zone and political warfare in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Yellow Sea without conventional war.The South China Sea disputes: The conversation explores China's aggressive island-building and exclusion zones around Scarborough Shoal, with Kang acknowledging these as serious issues but distinguishing them from existential threats that would trigger regional wars.Regional balancing vs. living with China: Kang contends Southeast Asian nations focus on "how to live with China" rather than preparing for war or joining containment coalitions, while the hosts draw on their experiences in diplomatic posts to argue that these countries privately seek American presence as a critical counterbalance.Methodology matters: Kang defends his systematic analysis of Chinese rhetoric against accusations of cherry-picking, arguing that scholars must distinguish between propaganda, sincere statements, and observed behavior—and that critics often cherry-pick quotes themselves.War probabilities and deterrence: Even if China's intention to fight over Taiwan is low, the hosts emphasize that even 10-20% odds of catastrophic war demand serious deterrence planning and military readiness.👉 Follow David Kang on X, @DaveCKang👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

Oct 24, 2025 • 48min
Why Should We Care About How Japan’s First Female Prime Minister Will Govern? | with Hanako Montgomery
In Ep. 108, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso interview CNN Tokyo correspondent Hanako Montgomery about the historic election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female prime minister, exploring her background, conservative policies, and the geopolitical challenges she faces amid rising regional tensions and domestic economic woes. The discussion highlights Takaichi's rise: how she broke through Japan's traditional patriarchal barriers, and how she will navigate its complex domestic politics and the rapidly changing Indo-Pacific geostrategic picture.Sanae Takaichi, formerly the economic security minister, emerged as Japan's fourth prime minister since Shinzo Abe's 2020 departure, marking a milestone as the country's first woman in the role despite Japan's low G7 ranking in gender parity. Unlike many politicians who come from dynasties, her background includes a TV anchor career in the mid-1990s, where she discussed politics and society, while her parents were a police officer and a car company worker. Known for her colorful personality (including a love for motorcycles and heavy metal music), she is a self-described workaholic and Abe protégé, advocating conservative stances like revising Japan's pacifist constitution, boosting defense spending to 2% of GDP, and opposing same-sex marriage.Takaichi's election comes during a period of turmoil for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which lost its parliamentary majority in recent elections amid scandals like unreported slush funds and ties to controversial groups linked to Abe's assassin. The long-dominant LDP now relies on a new coalition, creating an identity crisis between its conservative roots and younger reformers. Her "Sanaenomics"--looser fiscal policies, increased government spending, and inflation relief via billions in subsidies for household items--differs from Abenomics but faces hurdles from her coalition's fiscally conservative views and Japan's demographic crisis, including low birth rates and immigration crackdowns. Markets reacted positively with the Nikkei 225 hitting records post-election, but the yen also weakened, signaling investor excitement tempered by fiscal risks.Takaichi inherits a fraught Indo-Pacific landscape, with her hawkish views on China, including criticisms of its militarization, espionage by Chinese residents, and even ugly tourist behavior, drawing Beijing's ire via state media warnings that Japan is at a "crossroads." Her April Taiwan visit, pushing defense and economic ties without U.S. centrality, has heightened tensions, though economic interdependence may prompt pragmatic diplomacy during upcoming APEC and ASEAN meetings.Takaichi previously vowed female representation in her cabinet but appointed only two women, emphasizing qualifications over gender in a male-dominated field, surprising some observers. Comparisons to Margaret Thatcher abound for her symbolic strength as a first female leader; however, there are policy differences between the two.Takaichi's tenure could reshape Japan's role amid uncertainties about U.S. commitment and China's assertiveness in areas such as the Senkaku Islands, Taiwan, and the South China Sea, with public support growing for constitutional revision and defense hikes due to perceived threats. Her success hinges on economic delivery--tackling inflation and wages--while balancing alliances.👉 Follow Hanako on X, @HanakoMontgome1👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

Oct 21, 2025 • 42min
Why Should We Care About the West Philippine Sea Film that China is Trying to Block? | with Baby Ruth Villarama
In this episode, acclaimed Filipino filmmaker Baby Ruth Villarama joins Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss her documentary, "Food Delivery: Fresh from the West Philippine Sea"—a film Beijing tried repeatedly to block inside the Philippines and internationally. Villarama shares her perspective on the struggle of Filipino fisherfolk and defenders facing intimidation on the region’s contested waters, and how their experience holds urgent lessons for food security, truth, and sovereignty across the Indo-Pacific.A story bigger than borders: Villarama frames the West Philippine Sea not merely as a local dispute, but as a global issue involving food security and human dignity—where what happens to Filipino fishermen and their defenders ripples far beyond the region.Courage and resistance on the water: Her documentary spotlights Arnel Satam, whose David-versus-Goliath confrontations with China’s bullying paramilitary vessels epitomize the bravery and resolve of ordinary Filipinos under threat.Suppressed but not silenced: Repeated efforts to ban and discredit the documentary—in Manila and abroad—reflect real-world campaigns to silence stories that threaten powerful interests, but these actions have also served to attract even more attention and support.Funding and independence: Villarama explains how her team navigated the challenges of independent filmmaking in the Philippines, relying on grassroots backing and remaining free from government support, thus reinforcing the film’s authenticity and local perspective.Solidarity and the Streisand effect: She notes that pushback from China and “silent treatment” at home only amplified interest; acts of censorship drew more eyes and allies.Beyond politics—human connections: Villarama emphasizes that the heart of the story is about protecting livelihoods, identity, and the truth itself. She advocates seeing the sea as something that connects, not divides, and urges mutual respect between neighbors.Military and daily life on the edge: The film, as described by Villarama, captures the harsh realities of Filipino military postings on remote outposts, documenting both logistical struggles and profound patriotism that contrasts sharply with China's well-supported installations.Expanding the narrative: Despite obstacles, Villarama shares that “Food Delivery” has screened at over 80 venues, launched an Oscar campaign, and plans to continue sharing the fisherfolk's story worldwide—inviting communities everywhere to reflect on their own fight for truth and home.Takeaway message for global audiences: According to Villarama, defending truth and dignity is everyone’s responsibility: when one story is lost, the world’s humanity is diminished. She calls on viewers to see themselves in the struggle and to protect our “one sea, one world” for the sake of all.👉 For screening details, follow “Food Delivery: Fresh from the West Philippine Sea” on Facebook and Instagram👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

Oct 17, 2025 • 51min
Why Should We Care if China Wants to Lead the Global South? | with Eric Olander
Veteran journalist Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project, joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to unpack how China’s economic rise is remaking alliances and perceptions throughout the Global South, and assesses the real stakes for prosperity and stability as competition intensifies.China is setting new international standards: As U.S. influence recedes, China’s growing economic power is shifting global norms in technology, governance, and more.Global South nations seek stability, not ideology: According to Olander, most countries in the region prioritize practical gains and development models, finding appeal in China’s modernization without Westernization.Leadership contested: China, India, and Indonesia are among the Indo-Pacific’s competitors for influence as champions of the Global South, but no single country truly “leads”; instead, nations want self-determined prosperity.Concerns about Chinese power are real but muted: Territorial disputes matter, but most regional players hedge by forging new partnerships—like Japan and the Philippines—while doubting U.S. reliability.The “debt trap myth”: Olander believes Chinese lending is generally profit-driven, not a conspiracy to seize strategic assets; governance failures, not Chinese ambition, explain crises like Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port.China’s economic model is both a boon and a barrier: While cheap Chinese exports drive growth, they also make it harder for poorer countries to move up the value chain.Digital and surveillance technology goes global: Olander says that China exports electronic surveillance tools widely, but so do other nations; countries choose models that fit their own priorities around sovereignty and economic development.Rivalries today differ from the Cold War: The U.S.–China competition is less binary than the U.S.–Soviet rivalry of the past, with most Global South leaders aiming for balanced relationships rather than forced choices.Latin America’s ties with China are deepening: Resources, markets, and political influence flow in both directions, shaping the region and U.S. trade policy.Olander’s unique view is that, beyond power politics or ideology, China’s appeal in the Global South rests on its ability to deliver tangible improvements without imposing its values. He highlights how these countries view great power engagement not as a zero-sum rivalry, but as an opportunity to chart their own paths to modernization and stability.👉 Follow Eric Olander on LinkedIn or X, @eric_olander, or visit the China Global South Project. 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

Oct 10, 2025 • 54min
Why Should We Care What it’s Really Like Living in (and Escaping From) North Korea? | with Timothy Cho
North Korean defector and human rights advocate Timothy Cho joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso for a deeply personal account of his life in and escape from North Korea. He recounts his childhood poverty, four imprisonments, harrowing escape, and ultimate rescue that finally brought him to freedom. His story reveals North Korea's total information control, systemic persecution, and brutal detention conditions, while also highlighting the power of compassion, civil society, and diplomacy to intervene.Total information blackout: North Korea remains the only country without internet, cross-border communication, or social media—25 million people completely isolated from the outside world.Childhood indoctrination and famine: Timothy grew up worshiping the Kim family from infancy. His parents fled the country during the starvation that swept the country in the 1990s, which led him to being labeled "enemy class" for their defection.First escape and capture: After crossing the river into China, Timothy experienced shock at the open markets and fashionable clothes he saw there. However, he fled in terror from Christian missionaries who wanted to help, as he had absorbed many years of propaganda that painted religion as barbaric.Prison hell: After he was arrested at the Mongolian border, Timothy was sent to North Korean detention cells so overcrowded that detainees couldn't lie down. He witnessed death, torture, forced abortions, and other traumas that left him deeply scarred.Second crossing: Assisted by his grandmother to escape a second time, he was wrapped in plastic for another river crossing into China, where he found unexpected help from strangers.Rescue: After a 13-year-old student's email sparked international media coverage of the plight of North Korean refugees, public protests and diplomatic pressure led China to deport Timothy and eight others to the Philippines.Today's advocacy: Today Timothy serves as Secretariat of the UK All-Party Parliamentary Group on North Korea, speaking at the UN and urging sustained attention to the "voiceless" millions under DPRK repression.North Korea's unique isolation underpins mass repression through complete information control. The regime punishes families of defectors, while detention is often lethal by design. However, civil society and diplomatic action can save lives—one student's message triggered multilateral intervention. Of 34,000 estimated escapees, most remain fearfully silent to protect themselves and loved ones still inside.👉 Follow Timothy Cho on LinkedIn and Instagram👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or BlueSky👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn

Oct 3, 2025 • 53min
Why Should We Care if America Pulls Back While China Pushes Out? | with Shannon Brandao
In this compelling episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso interview Shannon Brandao – attorney, Mandarin speaker, and founder of the China Boss Substack – to explore China's expanding influence even as America appears to turn inward. Broadcasting from Europe, Brandao delivers her unique insights on Chinese Communist Party strategy, economic challenges, and geopolitical ambitions.Brandao emphasizes that perception easily becomes reality, in that when America appears to withdraw, China seizes opportunities to expand influence through economic leverage and promises of stability. This directly impacts Indo-Pacific supply chains controlling critical minerals, batteries, and essential products that Americans depend on daily.Rejecting claims that China seeks only regional stability, Brandao explains that the Chinese Communist Party operates from a paranoia that requires control to ensure regime survival. Under Xi Jinping, ruling "red aristocrats" fear vulnerability to external powers, and even successful Chinese entrepreneurs like Jack Ma, leading to enterprise nationalization and tight party control over innovation.While China faces economic headwinds, including debt, demographic challenges, and declining GDP, Xi Jinping has successfully modernized the military. Still, China's unreliable economic statistics mask systemic problems, with Communist Party interference undermining potential innovation, even despite a tremendous national talent base.China exercises strength in strategic sectors—solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles, shipbuilding, and artificial intelligence—through massive subsidies, but this creates a chronic overcapacity problem. Local government subsidies benefit politically connected firms like Huawei, creating quasi-monopolies across industries: steel, aluminum, cement, telecom gear, plastics, fertilizers, construction equipment, etc. Endemic corruption further dilutes programs, with billions disappearing from AI innovation funds.Companies attempting to leave China face complex challenges. When signaling departure, employees report to Party and government officials, triggering shakedowns through exit bans and extortionate demands. Recent surveys show companies staying but withholding investment and hedging elsewhere. For firms that do leave, repatriating profits and protecting intellectual property depends entirely on relationships with local government officials.Asked for what advice she would give to President Trump before meeting Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC Summit, Brandao warns that Xi will use flattery while masking the geopolitical reality, and that failing to press American interests in the Indo-Pacific creates vacuums China eagerly fills.👉 Follow the “China Boss” Shannon Brandao on LinkedIn or on her Substack👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific


