Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

In our second post-“Liberation Day” episode we are joined by John Goyer, Executive Director for Southeast Asia for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, to discuss the impact of America’s now-suspended tariff increases on Southeast Asian countries and on the U.S.John observes that American consumers are likely to experience significant price increases if these tariffs go into effect, since the reason U.S. businesses import from Southeast Asia is because it can get goods less expensively than if they are made in the United States. Meanwhile, both stock and bond markets have reacted very dramatically to each new announcement, and some economists are warning that the U.S. could tip into a recession if they go into full effect.Southeast Asian countries are already navigating a complicated relationship with China, whose economy has been relying on exports. Beijing’s fraught trade relationship with the U.S. has left it with huge surpluses of goods, many of which have been dumped into neighboring countries. China has also been using Southeast Asia as a place to trans-ship goods to avoid U.S. tariffs.Vietnam, whose tariffs were announced at the rate of 46 percent, actually has fairly low tariffs on U.S. goods, so will need to find other ways to satisfy the Trump Administration. This may include reducing restrictive policies and regulations or purchasing more U.S. goods.While some Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries have suggested a unified response, ASEAN has not been effective in moving quickly as a bloc. As a result, each country is likely to seek its own deal.On the question of who the winners might be in a trade war, John observes that it’s not easy to move manufacturing. These are complex, expensive decisions, and companies will be deliberate and measured in their responses. Learn more about John Goyer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, or follow him on LinkedIn.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn. Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power. Follow IEJ Media on X (@iejmedia), and follow our producer Ian Ellis-Jones on X (@ianellisjones) or on LinkedIn. This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Jim and Ray welcome Chris Johnstone, a Japan expert and former CIA, National Security Council, and Pentagon official, to discuss the implications of the recently announced U.S. tariffs on Japan’s economy, politics, trade policies, and alliance with America.Chris explains Japan's crucial role as a node in America’s Indo-Pacific alliance structure, but also, since the 2017 U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Japan has been assuming a greater leadership role in the region.U.S. tariffs will likely significantly impact Japan's GDP growth as well as its ability to finance the U.S.-produced weapons needed to defend itself against a rapidly growing Chinese military threat. Japan, like many other Indo-Pacific countries, will likely seek to strengthen its own domestic industries and diversify its trading relationships to reduce its reliance on the U.S. market and sources for high-end military equipment.Japan’s government is facing upcoming elections in which it will need to be seen as effective in countering the U.S. tariffs. The government will not want to be seen as weak or submissive to the U.S. in its responses while still protecting its overall relationship with Washington.Chris examines the pros and cons of various approaches Japan may take in response to reciprocal tariffs, as well as the larger question of how America’s abrupt policy changes and dismissal of previous trade agreements undermines the trust of its most important East Asian ally.Learn more about Chris Johnstone at the Asia Group or follow him on LinkedIn.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or on LinkedIn or BlueSky under our show title, "Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?"Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn. Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media and Ian Ellis-Jones, follow him on X (@ianellisjones) or LinkedIn. This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Two of India’s most respected foreign policy, national security and international relations experts, former Ambassador Alok Prasad and Mr. Vaman Desai, join Jim and Ray to explore the evolving bilateral relationship between the U.S. and India, which is increasingly seen as one of the globe’s defining partnership for the 21st century. They reflect on the recent visit to Washington by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.Our guests reflected that even with India bracing for the prospect of Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs–especially given India’s large trade surplus with the U.S.–the two countries agreed to attempt to more than double bilateral trade by 2030 under the “Mission 500” target.India has emerged as a hub for “global capability centers”, a magnet for foreign countries. India is also benefiting from companies looking for new manufacturing locations as China becomes less competitive, but it will need to overcome a reputation for being a hard place to do business.Meanwhile, India is expected to increase its imports of American energy and defense articles–both of which would mark shifts from Russian suppliers.Technological cooperation is another key area of focus, especially in emerging tech such as autonomous systems.India and China have stabilized their long-running border tensions, but a host of other concerns remain, including over China’s damming of rivers running into northern India.India’s role in global governance is multifaceted, as New Delhi continues to balance its relationships with international organizations as diverse as BRICS and the Quad.Learn more about Ambassador Alok Prasad, Mr. Vaman Dasai and the rest of BowerGroupAsia’s India team.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power. Follow IEJ Media on X (@iejmedia), and follow our producer Ian Ellis-Jones on X (@ianellisjones) or on LinkedIn.This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Former Singaporean diplomat Bilihari Kausikan joins Jim and Ray to discuss the implications of Donald Trump’s second term and his “America First” policies for Asia.Bilihari emphasizes that a focus on domestic policy is not unusual for U.S. presidents, and that Asian countries have learned to adapt practically to American policy changes. In fact, he believes that the current administration’s policies are closer to America’s historical norm than many realize.Ultimately, he believes that American stability is crucial for Asian prosperity, and that Asia needs continued U.S. military presence.According to Bilihari, Asians have different expectations for the so-called rules-based order than westerners, and tend not to be as sensitive to violations of norms. He says that Trump’s emphasis on hard deterrence and “peace through strength” can be more effective in Asia than appeals to values.Bilihari notes that Singapore in particular values economic rules over political ones.The conversation turned to Taiwan, which Bilihari believes has suffered from a sense of entitlement to U.S. support, spending insufficiently on its own defense and lacking strategic focus.For the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Bilihari explains that its main objective is to manage relations between the member states, and that is where it is most effective. He believes that it must continue to adapt to changing realities to stay relevant.Finally, Bilihari explains his famous assertion that ASEAN is a cow, not a horse.Read Bilihari Kausikan’s January 2025 article in Foreign Affairs magazine, “Who’s Afraid of America First?”Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn. Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power. Follow IEJ Media on X (@iejmedia), and follow our producer Ian Ellis-Jones on X (@ianellisjones) or on LinkedIn. This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Why Should We (and especially Taiwan) Care About China’s New “Invasion Barges”?Defense expert Tom Shugart joins Ray and Jim to explain China’s so-called “invasion barges”, which have recently gained wide attention exercising along China’s coast. Tom explains how these barges are a significant leap forward for China’s ability to carry out a Taiwan invasion.Tom explains how these barges would be used in an amphibious landing along Taiwan’s famously inaccessible coastline, and how their design opens up options for China to overcome this obstacle.These barges highlight the need for Taiwan to bolster its defenses along its western coast and into the Taiwan Strait itself. This should also serve as a wake-up call to the United States, as its assumptions about China’s military capabilities are rapidly growing obsolete.Tom also talks about his recent work highlighting the need for U.S. air base hardening against attack in the Indo-Pacific, as its large bases are now highly vulnerable to China’s growing arsenal of stand-off weapons.A former submarine warfare officer, Tom also discusses the challenges faced by the U.S. shipbuilding industry to ensure its ability to meet America’s own needs, as well as those for its ally Australia under the AUKUS agreement.Tom asserts that its new barges are further evidence that China can no longer be considered merely an imitator of America, but is now innovating in ways that are pushing its capabilities strongly forward.As the geopolitical consequences of a Chinese conquest of Taiwan would be profound for US alliances, rapid investment in defense infrastructure is critical for both the US and Taiwan.Follow Tom Shugart on X, @tshugart3.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn. Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power. Follow IEJ Media on X (@iejmedia), and follow our producer Ian Ellis-Jones on X (@ianellisjones) or on LinkedIn. This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Ray and Jim welcome Dr. Sal Mercogliano, maritime historian and host of the popular YouTube channel What’s Going on with Shipping?, to talk about how “dark fleets”--or what he calls "parallel fleets"--challenge maritime law and Indo-Pacific security by evading international shipping regulations and sanctions against malign actors.Sal talks about how Russia is the country most associated with dark fleets, because sanctions have prompted the country to create a parallel fleet using third-country “flags of convenience”. Many of these countries are magnets for bad actors because they have very lax standards and regulations for registration.The International Maritime Organization (IMO), which is supposed to oversee shipping worldwide, has struggled to enforce and regulate activities at sea, which remains a lawless space. One particularly thorny issue is illegal ship-to-ship transfers. Besides enabling sanctions evasion, these transfers also pose environmental risks as they frequently result in spills.Sal also talks about the state of the U.S. shipping industry, both of which are alarmingly small. This presents a national security vulnerability for a great power with global interests, especially as China dominates global shipping and owns over 20 percent of the world’s ships. He argues for bipartisan legislation to reform America’s merchant marine.Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Jim and Ray welcome broadcast journalist and news anchor Regina Lay to discuss the dramatic feud between the Marcos and Duterte political dynasties in the Philippines. Just three years ago these families were united behind a “Uniteam” ticket which secured an overwhelming electoral victory, but today Vice President Sara Duterte stands impeached and former President Rodrigo Duterte has been handed over to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for prosecution for crimes against humanity.Reggie helps untangle the political and legal elements of these cases, including how the Rodrigo Duterte prosecution holds implications for not only the Philippines but also for the ICC as a landmark test of its legitimacy. She also unpacks the impeachment case against Sara Duterte, which began with an investigation into her financial dealings but has since blossomed into allegations of plotting to assassinate President Marcos.The conversation then turns to the conflicting narratives which have fractured along regional and class lines, and also across dueling social media platforms. They discuss how the results of the May 2025 mid-term elections may be impacted by these events, and how the elections will in turn affect how Sara Duterte’s senate trial proceeds.Finally, they compare these events to the political turmoil in the United States, and consider what opportunities Beijing may seek to exploit amidst their democratic rivals' chaos.Follow Regina Lay on One News PH, where she co-hosts the afternoon Storycon show.Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Jim and Ray welcome BowerGroupAsia CEO Ernie Bower to discuss how U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs will affect regional trade dynamics.Ernie explains Trump often uses tariffs and tariff threats to achieve both trade and non-economic objectives, this also creates significant uncertainty for American companies which must quickly adjust their strategies.He explains how investment in the U.S. had already been increasing due to incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act, but that countries are now looking for more ways to protect their own markets from U.S. tariffs.Ernie asserts that the geopolitical landscape is shifting toward “South-South” cooperation among the countries of Asia and Africa, and that companies are increasingly making manufacturing and investment decisions because of these geopolitical and geo-economic changes. He says that the technology and energy sectors have been leading the transition into new markets.Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Jim and Ray welcome Taiwan Member of Parliament Wang Ting-Yu to discuss the “gray zone” warfare being prosecuted daily by China against his country, highlighted by the recent spate of subsea power and communications cables that link Taiwan’s main island to its outer islands and the world.Mr. Wang emphasizes that Taiwan’s government remains under constant threat of subversion, coercion, espionage and war from Beijing, and that its intimidation campaign affects Taiwan’s security as well as the daily lives of its citizens.He underlines Taiwan’s continued need for international support to build its resilience and its deterrence through military modernization. At the same time, Taiwan needs to maintain the integrity of its democratic, free-market system against Beijing's predations.Wang emphasizes Taiwan's strategic value to the U.S. and its allies while noting its need to accelerate ongoing military modernization efforts.Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

General Kevin Schneider, the Commander of the U.S. Pacific Air Forces and a seasoned fighter pilot, discusses the critical role of airpower in the Indo-Pacific. He delves into lessons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, emphasizing innovative strategies like agile combat employment. Schneider highlights the implications of China's sixth-generation fighters and the importance of U.S. alliances. He also shares the historic moment of delivering U.S. T-6 aircraft to Vietnam, symbolizing strengthened ties in the region.