

Bonus Crossover Episode with the China Global South Podcast: Ray Powell on the South China Sea
Apr 20, 2025
Ray Powell, Director of the Sea Light Initiative at Stanford University, dives deep into the South China Sea's complexities, unpacking China's maritime gray-zone activities. He highlights the increasing tensions between China and the Philippines following near-collisions and discusses the implications of the Philippines' military modernization. Powell also examines the shifting dynamics of U.S. commitments in the region, exploring why the Philippines is treated differently compared to other allies. The conversation sheds light on the broader geopolitical landscape and challenges in the Indo-Pacific.
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Episode notes
Localized Truces Amidst Tensions
- The South China Sea conflict has localized truces such as at Second Thomas Shoal but tension persists at Scarborough Shoal without agreement.
- China and the Philippines maintain opposing narratives about control and access at contested areas.
Why Philippines Is A U.S. Special Ally
- The U.S. currently treats the Philippines as a special ally unlike Japan or South Korea under Trump, partly due to the Philippines' transparency program.
- This program effectively highlights Philippine pressure from China, garnering U.S. support and military commitments.
War Risks and Gray-Zone Tactics
- A direct military conflict between China and the Philippines risks triggering U.S. involvement under a treaty alliance but neither side seems to desire outright war.
- China uses gray-zone tactics to incrementally adjust boundaries without triggering full-scale war.