Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

In this compelling episode of "Why Should We Care about the Indo-Pacific," hosts Ray Powell and James Carouso welcome Joe Hockey, former Australian Treasurer and Ambassador to the United States. Hockey, who now heads Bondi Partners, offers unique insights into U.S.-Australia relations during both Trump administrations.Episode Highlights:Hockey shares his firsthand experience of "Trumpageddon" during the transition from Obama to Trump's first administration, describing it as a "political tsunami" that hit Washington DC. He contrasts Trump 1.0's disorganization with Trump 2.0's more predictable but aggressive "political blitzkrieg" approach.The conversation explores recent challenges in the alliance, including new tariffs on Australian steel and aluminum under Trump's second term. Hockey explains how Australia previously secured exemptions during Trump's first term by emphasizing their status as America's closest ally according to Republican voters and highlighting their trade deficit with the U.S.When discussing concerns about the reliability of the U.S. alliance, Hockey dismisses what he calls "alarmist" views, emphasizing the deep integration between the two nations' military and intelligence communities. He pointedly asks, "What is Plan B?" when considering alternatives to the U.S. alliance, especially in light of recent Chinese naval exercises near Australia.The discussion also covers Australia's upcoming May 2025 election, defense spending needs, AUKUS submarine acquisition challenges, and the complex relationship with China. Hockey advocates for increasing Australia's defense spending to around 3% of GDP while encouraging more private sector involvement in defense infrastructure.Hockey concludes by sharing the touching origin story of his "100 Years of Mateship" initiative, which commemorated the centennial of U.S. and Australian troops fighting side by side at the Battle of Hamel in World War I – the beginning of an unbroken alliance that continues to this day.Don't miss this insightful conversation about one of America's most crucial alliances in an increasingly complex Indo-Pacific region.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media (on X @ianellisjones or LinkedIn).This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Mark Lambert, the recently retired head of the State Department’s China House, joins Jim and Ray to share his insights into the impacts of America’s radical new tariff policy from his extensive diplomatic career in Asia, including postings in China, Vietnam, Thailand, and Japan.Lambert, having just returned from a trip to Beijing, provides a unique perspective on how Chinese officials and experts are reacting to the escalating trade tensions between the two countries.His insights include:- President Xi Jinping's recent diplomatic tour of Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia indicates China's strategic move to contest U.S. influence in countries most affected by the tariffs- The challenges in U.S.-China negotiations, particularly the disconnect in diplomatic approaches between President Trump's preference for direct leader-to-leader negotiations versus China's more conservative impulses- Chinese confusion about what specifically the U.S. wants in trade negotiations - The importance of firmly opposing China’s well-known harmful trade practices (technology theft, subsidized overcapacity) while not decoupling the entire U.S.-China economic relationship- China's potential retaliatory measures, including restricting rare earth metals exports and reconsidering U.S. Treasury bond holdings- The strategic value of U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific and concerns about how current trade policies might affect these relationships- The fragility yet resilience of China's economic and political system, including its cultural capacity for "eating bitterness" during difficult times- Lambert's surprising ease of travel to China as a private citizen, suggesting China's desire to encourage more American visitors despite tensionsFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media (on X @ianellisjones or LinkedIn).This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Ray Powell, Director of the Sea Light Initiative at Stanford University, dives deep into the South China Sea's complexities, unpacking China's maritime gray-zone activities. He highlights the increasing tensions between China and the Philippines following near-collisions and discusses the implications of the Philippines' military modernization. Powell also examines the shifting dynamics of U.S. commitments in the region, exploring why the Philippines is treated differently compared to other allies. The conversation sheds light on the broader geopolitical landscape and challenges in the Indo-Pacific.

Founder and CEO of APAC Advisors Steve Okun joins Jim and Ray to talk about the suddenly raging trade war between the U.S. and China and what kind of impact it may have on the global trading system.Steve observes that international investment is largely frozen due to the uncertainty about what the U.S. goals are, which tariffs are temporary versus permanent, and whether the U.S. and China can come to a negotiated settlement.Steve also explains that while China has certainly exploited its advantage in manufacturing, the U.S. has long enjoyed its own advantage in the services sectors–such as entertainment, finance, health, and tourism. He says these U.S. industries may suffer under a more restrictive trade environment.The discussion also turns to international organizations and groupings like the World Trade Organization, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and whether they are losing influence in the global system as the big powers go their own way. Steve then speculates how U.S-China trade talks may proceed - and what cards Donald Trump and Xi Jinping believe they still have to play. Regardless, he expects continued volatility to continue as a new normal moving forward.Follow Steve Okun on his very popular LinkedIn profile, or at his consultancy, APAC Advisors.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media (on X @ianellisjones or LinkedIn).This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Author and Chatham House Associate Fellow Bill Hayton joins the podcast to explain how Vietnam has embarked on its own campaign to build artificial islands in the South China Sea, a decade after China pursued its own campaign.While Vietnam’s new artificial island bases will alter the South China Sea balance of power, China’s response has been muted, especially compared to its aggressive opposition to nearly every minor move the Philippines makes.Bill also discusses Vietnam’s concerns over the large-scale damming of the Mekong River. He explains how the river delta is crucial to Vietnam's agriculture and economy, but that upstream damming in China, Laos and other countries has caused substantial disruption.Turning to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Bill unpacks why it has been ineffective in addressing external and transnational threats, such as Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and the Mekong River.Bill also discusses the potential of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs to significantly disrupt Vietnam’s economy, as well as Vietnam’s relations with China under its new leader, To Lam.Follow Bill Hayton on X, @bill_hayton, and check out his well-regarded books on Vietnam, China, and the South China Sea on his website, billhayton.com.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media (on X @ianellisjones or LinkedIn).This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

In our second post-“Liberation Day” episode we are joined by John Goyer, Executive Director for Southeast Asia for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, to discuss the impact of America’s now-suspended tariff increases on Southeast Asian countries and on the U.S.John observes that American consumers are likely to experience significant price increases if these tariffs go into effect, since the reason U.S. businesses import from Southeast Asia is because it can get goods less expensively than if they are made in the United States. Meanwhile, both stock and bond markets have reacted very dramatically to each new announcement, and some economists are warning that the U.S. could tip into a recession if they go into full effect.Southeast Asian countries are already navigating a complicated relationship with China, whose economy has been relying on exports. Beijing’s fraught trade relationship with the U.S. has left it with huge surpluses of goods, many of which have been dumped into neighboring countries. China has also been using Southeast Asia as a place to trans-ship goods to avoid U.S. tariffs.Vietnam, whose tariffs were announced at the rate of 46 percent, actually has fairly low tariffs on U.S. goods, so will need to find other ways to satisfy the Trump Administration. This may include reducing restrictive policies and regulations or purchasing more U.S. goods.While some Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries have suggested a unified response, ASEAN has not been effective in moving quickly as a bloc. As a result, each country is likely to seek its own deal.On the question of who the winners might be in a trade war, John observes that it’s not easy to move manufacturing. These are complex, expensive decisions, and companies will be deliberate and measured in their responses. Learn more about John Goyer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, or follow him on LinkedIn.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn. Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power. Follow IEJ Media on X (@iejmedia), and follow our producer Ian Ellis-Jones on X (@ianellisjones) or on LinkedIn. This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Jim and Ray welcome Chris Johnstone, a Japan expert and former CIA, National Security Council, and Pentagon official, to discuss the implications of the recently announced U.S. tariffs on Japan’s economy, politics, trade policies, and alliance with America.Chris explains Japan's crucial role as a node in America’s Indo-Pacific alliance structure, but also, since the 2017 U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Japan has been assuming a greater leadership role in the region.U.S. tariffs will likely significantly impact Japan's GDP growth as well as its ability to finance the U.S.-produced weapons needed to defend itself against a rapidly growing Chinese military threat. Japan, like many other Indo-Pacific countries, will likely seek to strengthen its own domestic industries and diversify its trading relationships to reduce its reliance on the U.S. market and sources for high-end military equipment.Japan’s government is facing upcoming elections in which it will need to be seen as effective in countering the U.S. tariffs. The government will not want to be seen as weak or submissive to the U.S. in its responses while still protecting its overall relationship with Washington.Chris examines the pros and cons of various approaches Japan may take in response to reciprocal tariffs, as well as the larger question of how America’s abrupt policy changes and dismissal of previous trade agreements undermines the trust of its most important East Asian ally.Learn more about Chris Johnstone at the Asia Group or follow him on LinkedIn.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or on LinkedIn or BlueSky under our show title, "Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?"Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn. Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media and Ian Ellis-Jones, follow him on X (@ianellisjones) or LinkedIn. This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Two of India’s most respected foreign policy, national security and international relations experts, former Ambassador Alok Prasad and Mr. Vaman Desai, join Jim and Ray to explore the evolving bilateral relationship between the U.S. and India, which is increasingly seen as one of the globe’s defining partnership for the 21st century. They reflect on the recent visit to Washington by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.Our guests reflected that even with India bracing for the prospect of Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs–especially given India’s large trade surplus with the U.S.–the two countries agreed to attempt to more than double bilateral trade by 2030 under the “Mission 500” target.India has emerged as a hub for “global capability centers”, a magnet for foreign countries. India is also benefiting from companies looking for new manufacturing locations as China becomes less competitive, but it will need to overcome a reputation for being a hard place to do business.Meanwhile, India is expected to increase its imports of American energy and defense articles–both of which would mark shifts from Russian suppliers.Technological cooperation is another key area of focus, especially in emerging tech such as autonomous systems.India and China have stabilized their long-running border tensions, but a host of other concerns remain, including over China’s damming of rivers running into northern India.India’s role in global governance is multifaceted, as New Delhi continues to balance its relationships with international organizations as diverse as BRICS and the Quad.Learn more about Ambassador Alok Prasad, Mr. Vaman Dasai and the rest of BowerGroupAsia’s India team.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power. Follow IEJ Media on X (@iejmedia), and follow our producer Ian Ellis-Jones on X (@ianellisjones) or on LinkedIn.This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Former Singaporean diplomat Bilihari Kausikan joins Jim and Ray to discuss the implications of Donald Trump’s second term and his “America First” policies for Asia.Bilihari emphasizes that a focus on domestic policy is not unusual for U.S. presidents, and that Asian countries have learned to adapt practically to American policy changes. In fact, he believes that the current administration’s policies are closer to America’s historical norm than many realize.Ultimately, he believes that American stability is crucial for Asian prosperity, and that Asia needs continued U.S. military presence.According to Bilihari, Asians have different expectations for the so-called rules-based order than westerners, and tend not to be as sensitive to violations of norms. He says that Trump’s emphasis on hard deterrence and “peace through strength” can be more effective in Asia than appeals to values.Bilihari notes that Singapore in particular values economic rules over political ones.The conversation turned to Taiwan, which Bilihari believes has suffered from a sense of entitlement to U.S. support, spending insufficiently on its own defense and lacking strategic focus.For the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Bilihari explains that its main objective is to manage relations between the member states, and that is where it is most effective. He believes that it must continue to adapt to changing realities to stay relevant.Finally, Bilihari explains his famous assertion that ASEAN is a cow, not a horse.Read Bilihari Kausikan’s January 2025 article in Foreign Affairs magazine, “Who’s Afraid of America First?”Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn. Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power. Follow IEJ Media on X (@iejmedia), and follow our producer Ian Ellis-Jones on X (@ianellisjones) or on LinkedIn. This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Why Should We (and especially Taiwan) Care About China’s New “Invasion Barges”?Defense expert Tom Shugart joins Ray and Jim to explain China’s so-called “invasion barges”, which have recently gained wide attention exercising along China’s coast. Tom explains how these barges are a significant leap forward for China’s ability to carry out a Taiwan invasion.Tom explains how these barges would be used in an amphibious landing along Taiwan’s famously inaccessible coastline, and how their design opens up options for China to overcome this obstacle.These barges highlight the need for Taiwan to bolster its defenses along its western coast and into the Taiwan Strait itself. This should also serve as a wake-up call to the United States, as its assumptions about China’s military capabilities are rapidly growing obsolete.Tom also talks about his recent work highlighting the need for U.S. air base hardening against attack in the Indo-Pacific, as its large bases are now highly vulnerable to China’s growing arsenal of stand-off weapons.A former submarine warfare officer, Tom also discusses the challenges faced by the U.S. shipbuilding industry to ensure its ability to meet America’s own needs, as well as those for its ally Australia under the AUKUS agreement.Tom asserts that its new barges are further evidence that China can no longer be considered merely an imitator of America, but is now innovating in ways that are pushing its capabilities strongly forward.As the geopolitical consequences of a Chinese conquest of Taiwan would be profound for US alliances, rapid investment in defense infrastructure is critical for both the US and Taiwan.Follow Tom Shugart on X, @tshugart3.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn. Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power. Follow IEJ Media on X (@iejmedia), and follow our producer Ian Ellis-Jones on X (@ianellisjones) or on LinkedIn. This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.