Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Is the global order collapsing, or can renewed American leadership still secure the Indo-Pacific? In Episode 127, Jim Carouso and Ray Powell sit down with Robert Blackwill, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and former U.S. Ambassador to India, to dissect his provocative new report, “America Revived: A Grand Strategy of Resolute Global Leadership”.Ambassador Blackwill argues that the United States faces its most dangerous international landscape since World War II. With a rising, authoritarian China determined to displace the U.S. as the dominant power in Asia, Blackwill contends that current competing strategies - from Restraint to Nationalism to “Trumpism” - are failing to meet the moment. Instead, he proposes a bold, hybrid grand strategy which he labels “Resolute Global Leadership”.We dive deep into what this strategy would mean for the future of the Indo-Pacific. Blackwill makes the controversial case for explicitly “containing” Chinese power and stopping the erosion of U.S. influence in the region. He offers a candid critique of the current administration’s “revolutionary” approach, warning that incoherent messaging is destroying allied trust and fueling dangerous debates about nuclear proliferation in capitals like Tokyo and Seoul.Key topics discussed:The China Challenge: Why Blackwill believes we must label China a “hostile peer competitor” and what “containment” actually looks like in the 21st century.Grand Strategy 101: Breaking down the failures of Liberal Internationalism and Primacy, and why a fusion of the two is necessary to survive.The Trump Factor: How a personalized, transactional foreign policy undermines extended deterrence and how allies can effectively push back.Restoring Trust: Can Washington rebuild credibility with partners like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines before it’s too late?The future direction of U.S. grand strategy will define the security and economy of the entire Indo-Pacific for decades. Tune in to understand why the stakes have never been higher.👉 Read the report: America Revived | Council on Foreign Relations👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, on LinkedIn or on Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

China’s embassy in Manila has launched an unprecedented public campaign against Philippine government officials. In this episode, Philippine Coast Guard Commodore Jay Tarriela - Beijing’s primary target - explains what’s at stake when foreign embassies publicly threaten democratic voices.The controversy began when Tarriela posted images from a student presentation featuring AI-generated caricatures of Xi Jinping. China’s embassy called it “attacking and smearing Chinese leaders” and a “serious violation of China’s political dignity.” Beijing summoned the Philippine ambassador and demanded Tarriela “pay the price.” Tarriela refused to apologize, receiving backing from Philippine officials and strong public support - 94% of Filipinos support transparency efforts in the West Philippine Sea.Tarriela identifies three reasons behind Beijing’s escalation: the Philippines chairs ASEAN in 2026 and transparency during regional meetings could expose Chinese actions to neighboring countries; China may want to influence the 2028 Philippine election by reducing focus on West Philippine Sea issues; and transparency prevents China from executing operations like illegal reclamation without immediate international scrutiny.He describes coordination between the Chinese embassy and online accounts that amplify Beijing’s messaging with identical talking points - evidence of organized information operations. Tarriela also addresses allegations that our co-host, the SeaLight Foundation’s Ray Powell, is a U.S. agent providing him with money and instructions, while explaining why Powell’s documentation of Chinese activities across Southeast Asia challenges Beijing’s narrative.Since Tarriela’s last podcast appearance in May 2024, Chinese Coast Guard vessels have moved closer to Philippine shores, now operating near Pangasinan, Ilocos, Mindoro, and Bataan. Meanwhile, transparency efforts have achieved measurable results: Filipino awareness of West Philippine Sea issues has grown significantly, and international embassies that previously avoided naming China now publicly identify Chinese actions.Tarriela makes the case for deploying U.S. Coast Guard vessels rather than Navy warships to counter China’s gray-zone tactics, and explains why he continues speaking out despite personal attacks: “Standing up for our rights is the obligation of everybody. We owe this to our national heroes and to the next generation.”In the post-interview banter, Ray and Jim discuss how the Chinese embassy has also targeted Ray personally for SeaLight’s investigation into Chinese influence over Mandarin-language media outlets in the Philippines. They explore parallels with Australia’s experience combating similar influence operations and debate how democracies can balance freedom of the press with transparency about foreign funding and direction of media organizations.👉 Follow Jay Tarriela on X, @jaytaryela, or on LinkedIn👉 Follow the podcast on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

On January 27, 2026, India and the European Union are expected to announce “the mother of all trade deals” - a historic Free Trade Agreement covering 25% of the world’s GDP. After decades of protectionism, India is pivoting fast, racing to sign deals with developed economies like the EU, UAE, and Australia while diversifying away from China. But why now? And where does this leave the US under Trump 2.0?In this episode, Anuj Gupta, Managing Director of BowerGroupAsia (India) and former Chief of Staff to India’s Commerce Minister, takes us inside the room where these deals happen. We discuss:• The Big Shift: Why 2014 was the turning point for India’s trade strategy and why they walked away from the RCEP trading bloc.• The Pivot: Why India is suddenly rushing to sign FTAs with the West after years of hesitation.• Geopolitics: How India balances Russian oil imports with EU trade ambitions and US strategic ties.• The Future: Is India trying to be a bridge between blocs, or becoming a “third pole” in the global economy?Whether you’re a business leader, policy watcher, or just curious about where the world economy is heading, this episode breaks down why India’s new playbook matters to you.Anuj Gupta leads the India practice at BowerGroupAsia. A seasoned policy strategist, he previously served as Chief of Staff to India’s Minister for Commerce & Industry, where he helped shape key initiatives like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes and India’s recent wave of FTAs. He has also led public policy for the Tata Group. Follow Anuj on LinkedIn or on X, @anujg • Follow the podcast on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook• Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight• Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn• Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Is Taiwan’s greatest vulnerability China’s military or political warfare from within? J. Michael Cole—former Canadian intelligence officer, Senior Fellow with Global Taiwan Institute and author of “The Taiwan Tinderbox: The Island Nation at the Center of the New Cold War”—reveals how Chinese Communist Party influence operations, Taiwan independence debates and political divisions threaten cross-strait stability more than invasion scenarios.Taiwan’s Internal Security CrisisCole exposes how CCP proxies use cognitive warfare, espionage and co-optation to weaken Taiwan’s defense capabilities from within. Taiwan’s democracy creates a paradox: countering Chinese influence without becoming authoritarian. Opposition parties blocking defense spending increases—Taiwan aims for 5% GDP military spending—sends conflicting signals about Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense, weakening deterrence against Beijing.Taiwan Identity & Independence MovementsTaiwan’s divisions trace to indigenous peoples, Japanese colonial rule (1895-1945, and post-1949 Kuomintang (KMT) arrival. Cole identifies two critical movements: Taidu (Taiwan independence) and Huadu (Republic of China supporters opposing Beijing annexation). United, they’d form a powerful defense against the Chinese pressure campaign, but real unity has been elusive.Hong Kong’s Cautionary TaleBeijing’s crushing of Hong Kong democracy under “one country, two systems” became China’s worst propaganda failure for Taiwan unification. Young Taiwanese watched personal connections to Hong Kong destroyed, solidifying opposition across the political spectrum, so that even the dovish KMT publicly rejects Chinese unification proposals.Chinese Cognitive Warfare SuccessWhile China failed to convince Taiwanese they’re Chinese—unification support remains below 5%—Beijing has succeeded at fostering divisions and increasing skepticism of America’s reliability as a defense partner. Internet content farms and co-opted politicians amplify CCP narratives from within, exploiting Taiwan democracy against itself.The Greatest Threat: Accidental EscalationCole’s nightmare scenario isn’t invasion but normalized PLA presence near Taiwan. Chinese naval forces, drones, coast guard and maritime militia crowding Taiwan’s waters increase collision and miscommunication risks. Beijing stands ready to exploit incidents through disinformation, blame Taiwan, and then escalate in unpredictable ways.Taiwan’s Defense Strategy EvolutionTaiwan has shifted from passive defense to counter-force capabilities: domestically produced anti-ship and land-attack cruise missiles targeting China. This has required US approval, marking a major US Taiwan relations policy shift. Taiwan now emphasizes semiconductor supply chain criticality and first island chain security to make conflict consequences resonate globally.Why Taiwan’s Democracy MattersCole’s 20-year Taiwan residence reflects the island’s resilience: a vibrant democracy thriving under constant Chinese military threat, successful despite isolation, and a model for defending democratic values without authoritarianism.👉 Follow J. Michael Cole at the Global Taiwan Institute or on X at @jmichaelcole1👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

The U.S.-India partnership has been a cornerstone of American Indo-Pacific strategy for two decades, but it’s now facing its most serious crisis. After bipartisan American efforts to bring India into closer partnership as a counterweight to China, President Trump has triggered the most dramatic deterioration in U.S.-India relations in a generation. What began with optimism in Delhi about Trump 2.0 has devolved into a breakdown of trust, escalating tariffs, and diplomatic miscalculation that threatens the entire architecture of Indo-Pacific security.​In this essential episode, hosts Ray Powell (former U.S. military officer) and Jim Carouso (former U.S. diplomat) welcome back James Crabtree - distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, former Financial Times bureau chief for India, and author of the acclaimed book “The Billionaire Raj.” Drawing on his recent Foreign Affairs article, “The India That Trump Made,” Crabtree unpacks how two decades of strategic partnership have been upended in less than a year.​What Happened?India expected favorable treatment from Trump given Modi’s strong personal relationship with the president during his first term. Instead, they received 50% tariffs - first 25% on general goods, then another 25% for buying Russian oil, putting India’s tariff burden equal to China’s. Then came the Pakistan crisis: when India and Pakistan clashed in Operation Sindor, Trump claimed credit for brokering a ceasefire that India insists he didn’t actually broker. Trump’s perceived slight over not receiving sufficient credit has fueled ongoing tensions, while Pakistan successfully leveraged the moment through crypto deals, a Nobel Peace Prize nomination for Trump, and high-level military diplomacy.​Strategic ConsequencesThe Quad, the critical U.S.-Australia-India-Japan partnership, is essentially stalled, with a planned summit canceled and little energy for revival. India is now pursuing what Crabtree calls a “pivot to Europe,” seeking to replace American technology transfer, investment, and defense expertise with European alternatives. An EU-India summit in January will likely announce a long-negotiated trade deal, marking India’s shift toward multi-alignment rather than U.S. partnership.​Meanwhile, Pakistan has successfully re-emerged as a regional player, signing security treaties with Saudi Arabia that include nuclear assurances and repositioning itself diplomatically after years in India’s shadow. Russia remains a “diminishing asset” for India due to supply unreliability and limited technological offerings, though Delhi still needs Moscow for defense systems like the S-400 and to prevent Russia from becoming a complete Chinese vassal state.​India’s FutureDespite the diplomatic turbulence, India posted 8% GDP growth last quarter and remains on a positive economic trajectory, though still a developing country at $2,000-3,000 per capita income. Prime Minister Modi, now in his third term and 11 years in office, continues to dominate Indian politics and will likely seek a fourth term, cementing his status as the most significant political figure in independent Indian history. India’s “Make in India” defense ambitions are advancing slowly, with systems like the BrahMos missile finding export success in Southeast Asia, though India remains heavily import-dependent for military hardware.​Can U.S.-India trust be rebuilt? Crabtree is pessimistic: “The trust that had been built up between the U.S. and India over a two-decade period has been destroyed”. The pro-American camp in Delhi that architected the strategic partnership has been undermined, while pro-Russia voices feel vindicated.👉 Follow James Crabtree on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In Episode 122, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Dr. Robert Burrell, retired US Marine Corps officer and irregular warfare specialist, and Colonel (Ret.) Michael Burgoyne, University of Arizona professor and former Army attaché in Mexico, to analyze the unprecedented US military operation in Venezuela that captured President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. The experts explore the operation’s implications for the Indo-Pacific, US foreign policy, and the international rules-based order.The Venezuela Operation: A New PrecedentBurrell and Burgoyne dissect the extraordinary special operations mission that extracted Maduro in just two and a half hours. The guests explain how three decades of authoritarian rule under Hugo Chávez and Maduro created a nexus between China, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah in America’s hemisphere. The 2024 election, won by opposition candidate Edmundo González, was rigged by Maduro, prompting the Trump administration’s decisive action led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.Legal and Strategic ImplicationsThe discussion examines the operation’s framing as a law enforcement action under foreign terrorist organization designations - a controversial use of Article 2 presidential powers without Congressional authorization. Burgoyne warns this unilateral approach abandons post-WWII hemispheric cooperation frameworks like the Organization of American States Charter and the “Good Neighbor Policy,” returning instead to early 20th-century interventionism reminiscent of Theodore Roosevelt’s corollary to the Monroe Doctrine.Indo-Pacific ConnectionsThe experts draw critical parallels for Indo-Pacific allies who depend on international law and the rules-based order. Countries like Japan, the Philippines, and Australia may question US commitment to multilateral norms, while adversaries like China could exploit the precedent to justify their own unilateral actions. Brazil and other regional powers are already diversifying partnerships with China and BRICS nations, concerned about unpredictable US interventionism and trade policy.What Comes Next?With Maduro’s vice president maintaining control in Caracas and the regime apparatus intact, the guests outline scenarios ranging from peaceful opposition transition to Libya-style state collapse. They emphasize Venezuela’s complexity: three decades of corruption, transnational criminal organizations, and a population unfamiliar with democracy. Best-case scenarios require international cooperation and long-term US commitment - both uncertain given the operation’s unilateral nature.The episode concludes with sobering assessments about narrative control, regional stability, and whether this operation serves as prologue to regime change efforts in Cuba and Nicaragua.👉 Follow Rob Burrell on his web site, robertburrell.com, or at his Substack👉 Follow Mike Burgoyne on LinkedIn 👉 Follow the podcast on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In Episode 121, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Craig Singleton, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and former US diplomat, to examine Taiwan’s critical energy vulnerability and China’s gray zone coercion strategies. Singleton, co-author of FDD’s recent report “Maritime Protection of Taiwan’s Energy Vulnerability,” reveals how Taiwan’s mere 10-day supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) creates an Achilles heel Beijing could exploit without firing a shot - and why semiconductor supply chains, global economies, and US deterrence strategy all hang in the balance.Taiwan’s Energy Crisis: 10 Days to DisasterTaiwan imports 90% of its energy, with over half arriving by sea as LNG from suppliers who may be susceptible to PRC coercion. Through extensive war gaming featuring participants from Taiwan’s National Security Council, Japan, Australia and former Trump administration officials including Matt Pottinger, Singleton’s team discovered Taiwan would face “Sophie’s Choice” dilemmas within two weeks of a Chinese quarantine. The scenario revealed that energy companies would be pressured to comply with new and onerous requirements, while diplomatic pressure to reduce just one LNG shipment per week could trigger cascading blackouts and force Taiwan to choose between powering hospitals or semiconductor fabrication plants.​Quarantine vs. Blockade: The Gray Zone AdvantageSingleton explains the critical distinction between blockades - which carry international legal consequences and can activate UN responses - and quarantines, which exist in “squishy” legal territory that China deliberately exploits. During war gaming, Singleton playing Xi Jinping accomplished every objective without triggering US red lines by characterizing aggressive actions as “safety inspections” and “counter-piracy operations,” language already familiar from South China Sea operations. This asymmetric approach keeps American responses in “off” mode while systematically degrading Taiwan’s resilience through political warfare and disinformation campaigns.​Semiconductor Leverage and Allied ResponseWhen Taiwan’s war game participants announced they would cut power to TSMC to force international intervention, it represented a mic-drop moment - Taiwan exercising agency by threatening global semiconductor supply chains. The scenario exposed uncomfortable truths about allied commitment, with Japan able to weather the crisis due to substantial LNG reserves, while Australia’s involvement remained uncertain despite AUKUS commitments. Singleton argues classic deterrence models map poorly onto gray zone operations, and reestablishing deterrence after allowing coercion to proceed requires “outsized” responses that current political will may not support.​Solutions: From LNG Diversification to Nuclear ReactorsSingleton advocates for increased US LNG exports to Taiwan, enhanced energy storage through hardened mountain facilities and floating terminals, and reconsideration of small modular reactors (SMRs) at key government and military sites - potentially creating a deterrent effect against Chinese targeting due to nuclear fallout risks. The 2025 National Defense Authorization Act’s increase from $300 million to $1 billion in foreign military financing for Taiwan represents progress, but energy resilience remains the critical vulnerability China will exploit.👉 Follow Craig Singleton at the FDD or on X at @CraigMSingleton👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In this special year-end edition, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso reflect on a transformative 2025 in the Indo-Pacific, examining the dramatic shift from conventional diplomacy to hard power politics under the Trump 2.0 administration. The episode provides a comprehensive review of the podcast’s most impactful conversations, from national government leaders to topical experts, while analyzing the year’s major geopolitical developments.Trump 2.0 and the Hard Power PivotJim and Ray discuss how the year began with U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel’s appearance, marking the podcast’s first sitting ambassador interview. Following President Trump’s January inauguration, 2025 witnessed a fundamental reorientation of American Indo-Pacific policy away from soft power initiatives toward military deterrence and economic leverage through tariffs. They discuss how this approach disrupted established norms and international agreements, with potential Supreme Court challenges to executive power looming in 2026.China’s Gray Zone and Political Warfare CampaignsGray zone and political warfare emerged as a dominant theme, with a topical episode featuring the RAND Corporation’s Todd Helmus becoming the year’s most downloaded audio content. The hosts recall what they learned about China’s comprehensive political warfare strategy, which treats peacetime as a mere continuation of conflict through non-military means. Notable coverage included the extraordinary incident where two Chinese Coast Guard vessels collided near Scarborough Shoal, producing the year’s top video episode as Beijing’s propagandists struggled for four days to craft a narrative blaming the Philippines for a setback they couldn’t admit to.Regional Flashpoints and ConflictsThe podcast provided critical context for unexpected conflicts, including the India-Pakistan and Thailand-Cambodia border wars. These complex, multi-generational disputes were unpacked by regional experts like Indian strategic analyst Nitin Gokhale and former Cambodian Ambassador Pou Sothirak.The Trump-Modi Relationship UnravelsWhat began as a seemingly stable partnership deteriorated rapidly in 2025, with Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin providing blunt analysis of an unexpectedly cooling U.S.-India relationship. The Trump administration’s surprising pivot toward Pakistan represented a stunning reversal from Trump 1.0 policies, raising questions about Quad’s future effectiveness and regional security cooperation.Transnational Crime and Human TraffickingInvestigative reporting by the Washington Post’s Sue-Lin Wong exposed the exponential expansion and brutal reality of scam compounds across Myanmar, Cambodia and the Philippines, where human trafficking victims are forced into “pig-butchering” and cryptocurrency fraud operations. We also featured Washington Post reporter Rebecca Tan discussing the methamphetamine crisis fueled by Chinese precursor chemicals flowing through lawless Myanmar territories into markets across Asia.Historic Interviews and Podcast Milestones2025 brought unprecedented access, including interviews with Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro and the podcast’s first head-of-state guest, Palau’s President Surangel Whipps Jr. Documentary filmmaker Baby Ruth Villarama also came on to discuss Beijing’s failed attempt to suppress her West Philippine Sea documentary, while North Korean defector Timothy Cho shared his harrowing escape story.​The hosts also recall the podcast’s experiments with live broadcasts covering Australia’s election results and China-Japan tensions.2026 OutlookMonthly listenership quadrupled in 2025, establishing the podcast as the leading Indo-Pacific affairs platform. As 2026 approaches, the hosts anticipate continued geopolitical turbulence, Supreme Court tariff decisions and evolving great power competition dynamics across the region.

In Ep. 119, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Justin Bassi, Executive Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), to assess the health of the US-Australia alliance as it approaches its 75th anniversary in 2026. Bassi, a former National Security Advisor to the Australian Prime Minister, argues that while the institutional foundation of the alliance remains robust, we are living in the “most dangerous times since the end of World War II” - a reality that demands confidence, courage, and a doubling down on partnerships to counter the rising influence of China and Russia.Bassi frames the current geopolitical landscape as more precarious than the Cold War, driven by adversaries who believe the US-led order is in decline. He emphasizes that the alliance is not just a legacy of the past but a critical necessity for the future. For Australia, the “fear of abandonment” - a historical anxiety about great power withdrawal - remains a potent strategic driver. The response, Bassi argues, must be to demonstrate that the US and its allies can still compete, even dominate, and provide stability in the region.The hosts and Bassi discuss the recently concluded Australia-US Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN). While the fact that the meeting occurred during a chaotic year - marked by US political transitions and Australian elections - is a success in itself, Bassi notes a potential “missed opportunity.” For the first time in recent memory, the meeting concluded without a joint press conference or a formal joint statement, replaced only by a fact sheet. Bassi explores whether this break in precedent signals mere logistical hurdles or deeper misalignments on specific policy nuances, particularly regarding China.Despite questions around messaging, the alliance is delivering substance. Bassi champions the value of increased US force posture initiatives in Australia, arguing that a larger American footprint is a net positive for regional stability. The trio also discuss the “implementation phase” of AUKUS, noting that the partnership has achieved bipartisanship across the US, UK, and Australia despite leadership changes in all three nations. Bassi describes AUKUS not as a short-term deal but as a “generational, hopefully forever” commitment that transcends individual administrations.Reflecting on the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency, the group compares the current dynamic to the friction of the Trump 1.0 era, during which they all served in government roles together in Australia. Bassi contends that the alliance is institutionally “stronger than any government of the day.” He points to the smooth landing of recent AUKUS and critical minerals agreements as evidence that the ecosystem of defense and intelligence cooperation continues to thrive, regardless of leader-to-leader personalities.👉 In addition to his current role as Executive Director of ASPI, Justin Bassi previously served as the National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and as Chief of Staff to Foreign Minister Marise Payne. Follow him on LinkedIn or on X at @BassiJustin👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, on LinkedIn or on Facebook👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In this essential episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome two returning guests and leading strategic thinkers: retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan, author of “The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire,” and Zack Cooper, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and co-host of the Net Assessment Podcast. Together, they dissect the Trump administration’s newly released National Security Strategy and its implications for U.S. alliances, Indo-Pacific security, and the evolving competition with China.​NSS Unveiled: Zack explains what the National Security Strategy (NSS) is - the connective tissue linking U.S. objectives to the ways and means of achieving them - while noting the internal contradictions and lack of central logic. Released with minimal fanfare in early December, this NSS marks a significant departure from conventional approaches to American global engagement.​Regional Winners and Losers: Mick offers his characteristically candid, “she’ll be right, mate” assessment, arguing that while Europe faces a much more civilizational challenge under this strategy, Indo-Pacific allies like Australia, Japan, and Taiwan emerge relatively intact. The document maintains U.S. commitment to the defense of the first island chain, though the beleaguered Philippines notably goes unmentioned.​Spheres of Influence and Inconsistencies: The experts dissect the document’s troubling embrace of spheres of influence - asserting U.S. primacy in the Americas while condemning Chinese ambitions in Asia. This contradiction, combined with transactional mercantilism replacing values-based alliances, signals a fundamental shift in American grand strategy.​The China Challenge: Both guests critique how the NSS reduces all of Asia to a China problem, ignoring critical issues in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific Islands. They explore China’s aggressive response to Japanese Prime Minister Takeuchi’s Taiwan comments and what Beijing’s gray zone operations reveal about testing U.S. resolve.​Deterrence and Taiwan: Zack warns that U.S. strategy focuses too narrowly on preventing a Taiwan amphibious invasion while neglecting China’s political warfare strategy. Mick emphasizes that Xi Jinping views Taiwan as a political problem, not primarily a military one, and may seek a grand bargain with President Trump.​Technology and National Security: The conversation addresses the controversial decision to allow Nvidia to sell advanced H200 chips to China, which both view as a significant national security mistake that undermines the technology competition goals in the NSS.Congressional Pushback: The recently released National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) includes provisions constraining troop withdrawals from South Korea and other guardrails, reflecting bipartisan congressional frustration with lack of Pentagon consultation.​Episode 118 provides indispensable analysis for understanding how U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy is developing under Trump 2.0, and why allies and adversaries alike are recalculating their positions in the world’s most dynamic and consequential region.👉 Follow Zack at AEI or on X, @ZackCooper👉 Follow Mick at Futura Doctrina or on X, @WarInTheFuture👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia