Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Episode 110 features Isaac Kardon, Senior Fellow for China Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of "China’s Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order." Kardon joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss how China uses domestic law, coast guard operations, and strategic ambiguity to reshape international maritime norms - especially in the South and East China Seas and the Yellow Sea.China’s Approach to Maritime Law: Kardon explains that China’s participation in international treaties, such as UNCLOS, differs fundamentally from rule-of-law societies like the U.S. Rather than constraining itself, China uses treaties as instruments for political and strategic advantage, showing significant flexibility in interpretation and enforcement.Global Impact of Indo-Pacific Maritime Order: The Indo-Pacific isn’t just a regional issue - what happens there affects global trade, technology supply chains, and the daily lives of people worldwide. The COVID pandemic and events like the Ever Given incident in the Suez Canal reveal the fragility of maritime order, making disruptions to the global order dangerous for prosperity and peace.Frictions in the South China Sea: China’s ratification of UNCLOS presented challenges, notably the framework that limits China’s ability to claim “historic” zones like the “nine-dash line.” Despite arbitration rulings against Chinese claims, China responds in ways that undermine the effectiveness of international mechanisms, often using ambiguous claims and building capacity to assert control regardless of legal setbacks.Law, Power, and Regional Responses: The episode highlights the contrast between the legalistic approaches of “cricket-playing nations” and China’s more instrumental use of law. Small states in the region rely on legal frameworks for protection, but China’s power allows it to bend or contest those rules.Recent Developments: China has expanded its exclusion zone around Scarborough Shoal and used environmental pretext to assert control, demonstrating a pattern of using lawfare as a tool for broader strategic objectives.Future Directions: The discussion covers the gridlock over the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct process, the decline of sentimentality about U.S. leadership in maritime law, and the general skepticism about international law’s ability to constrain powerful states. The hosts discuss the potential for the Indo-Pacific maritime disputes to become the setting for geopolitical drama, involving all facets from local fishermen and coast guards to great power competition.Kardon argues that China’s lawfare bolsters its capabilities: strength and presence on the water matter just as much, if not more, than legal arguments. He describes the situation as “possession is nine-tenths of the law”—a reality that smaller states cannot match with mere legal claims.Policy Takeaways: International law matters less when powerful states refuse to be constrained. China’s approach threatens regional cooperation and legal consistency.The episode calls for listeners to recognize how Indo-Pacific maritime order shapes global stability, trade, and strategic realities - and provides both practical insights and a thought-provoking narrative, encouraging listeners to see Indo-Pacific maritime disputes not just as legal questions but as complex dramas involving power, law, and the future of global cooperation.👉 Visit Isaac's web site, or follow him on X, @IBKardon👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In this episode, China scholar David C. Kang joins Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss his recent Foreign Affairs article, “What China Doesn’t Want”, which argues that Beijing's geostrategic ambitions are much more limited than Washington's foreign policy establishment believes. Kang challenges the prevailing consensus that China seeks regional hegemony and global primacy, arguing instead that China's aims are narrower, more domestic, and more status quo than commonly assumed.​A contrarian perspective on China's intentions: Kang and his co-authors analyzed approximately 12,000 Chinese articles and hundreds of Xi Jinping speeches, concluding that systematic analysis reveals China's priorities are internal stability and Taiwan, not global domination or territorial conquest of neighboring states.​The debate over regional threat perceptions: While Kang argues that countries like Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan view China more pragmatically than Washington does, the hosts push back with examples of regional maritime tensions, arguing that frontline states see China as a more serious threat than Kang credits.​Taiwan as the central flashpoint: All three agree China prefers a "boa constrictor" strategy of gradual pressure over military invasion, but disagree on how to interpret low-probability war risks and whether recent U.S.-Taiwan moves constitute status quo changes.​Gray-zone success and maritime expansion: Powell argues China is the 21st century's most successful maritime expansionist power, achieving objectives through gray-zone and political warfare in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Yellow Sea without conventional war.​The South China Sea disputes: The conversation explores China's aggressive island-building and exclusion zones around Scarborough Shoal, with Kang acknowledging these as serious issues but distinguishing them from existential threats that would trigger regional wars.​Regional balancing vs. living with China: Kang contends Southeast Asian nations focus on "how to live with China" rather than preparing for war or joining containment coalitions, while the hosts draw on their experiences in diplomatic posts to argue that these countries privately seek American presence as a critical counterbalance.​Methodology matters: Kang defends his systematic analysis of Chinese rhetoric against accusations of cherry-picking, arguing that scholars must distinguish between propaganda, sincere statements, and observed behavior—and that critics often cherry-pick quotes themselves.​War probabilities and deterrence: Even if China's intention to fight over Taiwan is low, the hosts emphasize that even 10-20% odds of catastrophic war demand serious deterrence planning and military readiness.​👉 Follow David Kang on X, @DaveCKang👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In Ep. 108, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso interview CNN Tokyo correspondent Hanako Montgomery about the historic election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female prime minister, exploring her background, conservative policies, and the geopolitical challenges she faces amid rising regional tensions and domestic economic woes. The discussion highlights Takaichi's rise: how she broke through Japan's traditional patriarchal barriers, and how she will navigate its complex domestic politics and the rapidly changing Indo-Pacific geostrategic picture.Sanae Takaichi, formerly the economic security minister, emerged as Japan's fourth prime minister since Shinzo Abe's 2020 departure, marking a milestone as the country's first woman in the role despite Japan's low G7 ranking in gender parity. Unlike many politicians who come from dynasties, her background includes a TV anchor career in the mid-1990s, where she discussed politics and society, while her parents were a police officer and a car company worker. Known for her colorful personality (including a love for motorcycles and heavy metal music), she is a self-described workaholic and Abe protégé, advocating conservative stances like revising Japan's pacifist constitution, boosting defense spending to 2% of GDP, and opposing same-sex marriage.Takaichi's election comes during a period of turmoil for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which lost its parliamentary majority in recent elections amid scandals like unreported slush funds and ties to controversial groups linked to Abe's assassin. The long-dominant LDP now relies on a new coalition, creating an identity crisis between its conservative roots and younger reformers. Her "Sanaenomics"--looser fiscal policies, increased government spending, and inflation relief via billions in subsidies for household items--differs from Abenomics but faces hurdles from her coalition's fiscally conservative views and Japan's demographic crisis, including low birth rates and immigration crackdowns. Markets reacted positively with the Nikkei 225 hitting records post-election, but the yen also weakened, signaling investor excitement tempered by fiscal risks.Takaichi inherits a fraught Indo-Pacific landscape, with her hawkish views on China, including criticisms of its militarization, espionage by Chinese residents, and even ugly tourist behavior, drawing Beijing's ire via state media warnings that Japan is at a "crossroads." Her April Taiwan visit, pushing defense and economic ties without U.S. centrality, has heightened tensions, though economic interdependence may prompt pragmatic diplomacy during upcoming APEC and ASEAN meetings.Takaichi previously vowed female representation in her cabinet but appointed only two women, emphasizing qualifications over gender in a male-dominated field, surprising some observers. Comparisons to Margaret Thatcher abound for her symbolic strength as a first female leader; however, there are policy differences between the two.Takaichi's tenure could reshape Japan's role amid uncertainties about U.S. commitment and China's assertiveness in areas such as the Senkaku Islands, Taiwan, and the South China Sea, with public support growing for constitutional revision and defense hikes due to perceived threats. Her success hinges on economic delivery--tackling inflation and wages--while balancing alliances.👉 Follow Hanako on X, @HanakoMontgome1👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In this episode, acclaimed Filipino filmmaker Baby Ruth Villarama joins Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss her documentary, "Food Delivery: Fresh from the West Philippine Sea"—a film Beijing tried repeatedly to block inside the Philippines and internationally. Villarama shares her perspective on the struggle of Filipino fisherfolk and defenders facing intimidation on the region’s contested waters, and how their experience holds urgent lessons for food security, truth, and sovereignty across the Indo-Pacific.A story bigger than borders: Villarama frames the West Philippine Sea not merely as a local dispute, but as a global issue involving food security and human dignity—where what happens to Filipino fishermen and their defenders ripples far beyond the region.Courage and resistance on the water: Her documentary spotlights Arnel Satam, whose David-versus-Goliath confrontations with China’s bullying paramilitary vessels epitomize the bravery and resolve of ordinary Filipinos under threat.Suppressed but not silenced: Repeated efforts to ban and discredit the documentary—in Manila and abroad—reflect real-world campaigns to silence stories that threaten powerful interests, but these actions have also served to attract even more attention and support.Funding and independence: Villarama explains how her team navigated the challenges of independent filmmaking in the Philippines, relying on grassroots backing and remaining free from government support, thus reinforcing the film’s authenticity and local perspective.Solidarity and the Streisand effect: She notes that pushback from China and “silent treatment” at home only amplified interest; acts of censorship drew more eyes and allies.Beyond politics—human connections: Villarama emphasizes that the heart of the story is about protecting livelihoods, identity, and the truth itself. She advocates seeing the sea as something that connects, not divides, and urges mutual respect between neighbors.Military and daily life on the edge: The film, as described by Villarama, captures the harsh realities of Filipino military postings on remote outposts, documenting both logistical struggles and profound patriotism that contrasts sharply with China's well-supported installations.Expanding the narrative: Despite obstacles, Villarama shares that “Food Delivery” has screened at over 80 venues, launched an Oscar campaign, and plans to continue sharing the fisherfolk's story worldwide—inviting communities everywhere to reflect on their own fight for truth and home.Takeaway message for global audiences: According to Villarama, defending truth and dignity is everyone’s responsibility: when one story is lost, the world’s humanity is diminished. She calls on viewers to see themselves in the struggle and to protect our “one sea, one world” for the sake of all.👉 For screening details, follow “Food Delivery: Fresh from the West Philippine Sea” on Facebook and Instagram👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

Veteran journalist Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project, joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to unpack how China’s economic rise is remaking alliances and perceptions throughout the Global South, and assesses the real stakes for prosperity and stability as competition intensifies.China is setting new international standards: As U.S. influence recedes, China’s growing economic power is shifting global norms in technology, governance, and more.Global South nations seek stability, not ideology: According to Olander, most countries in the region prioritize practical gains and development models, finding appeal in China’s modernization without Westernization.Leadership contested: China, India, and Indonesia are among the Indo-Pacific’s competitors for influence as champions of the Global South, but no single country truly “leads”; instead, nations want self-determined prosperity.Concerns about Chinese power are real but muted: Territorial disputes matter, but most regional players hedge by forging new partnerships—like Japan and the Philippines—while doubting U.S. reliability.The “debt trap myth”: Olander believes Chinese lending is generally profit-driven, not a conspiracy to seize strategic assets; governance failures, not Chinese ambition, explain crises like Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port.China’s economic model is both a boon and a barrier: While cheap Chinese exports drive growth, they also make it harder for poorer countries to move up the value chain.Digital and surveillance technology goes global: Olander says that China exports electronic surveillance tools widely, but so do other nations; countries choose models that fit their own priorities around sovereignty and economic development.Rivalries today differ from the Cold War: The U.S.–China competition is less binary than the U.S.–Soviet rivalry of the past, with most Global South leaders aiming for balanced relationships rather than forced choices.Latin America’s ties with China are deepening: Resources, markets, and political influence flow in both directions, shaping the region and U.S. trade policy.Olander’s unique view is that, beyond power politics or ideology, China’s appeal in the Global South rests on its ability to deliver tangible improvements without imposing its values. He highlights how these countries view great power engagement not as a zero-sum rivalry, but as an opportunity to chart their own paths to modernization and stability.👉 Follow Eric Olander on LinkedIn or X, @eric_olander, or visit the China Global South Project. 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

North Korean defector and human rights advocate Timothy Cho joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso for a deeply personal account of his life in and escape from North Korea. He recounts his childhood poverty, four imprisonments, harrowing escape, and ultimate rescue that finally brought him to freedom. His story reveals North Korea's total information control, systemic persecution, and brutal detention conditions, while also highlighting the power of compassion, civil society, and diplomacy to intervene.Total information blackout: North Korea remains the only country without internet, cross-border communication, or social media—25 million people completely isolated from the outside world.Childhood indoctrination and famine: Timothy grew up worshiping the Kim family from infancy. His parents fled the country during the starvation that swept the country in the 1990s, which led him to being labeled "enemy class" for their defection.First escape and capture: After crossing the river into China, Timothy experienced shock at the open markets and fashionable clothes he saw there. However, he fled in terror from Christian missionaries who wanted to help, as he had absorbed many years of propaganda that painted religion as barbaric.Prison hell: After he was arrested at the Mongolian border, Timothy was sent to North Korean detention cells so overcrowded that detainees couldn't lie down. He witnessed death, torture, forced abortions, and other traumas that left him deeply scarred.Second crossing: Assisted by his grandmother to escape a second time, he was wrapped in plastic for another river crossing into China, where he found unexpected help from strangers.Rescue: After a 13-year-old student's email sparked international media coverage of the plight of North Korean refugees, public protests and diplomatic pressure led China to deport Timothy and eight others to the Philippines.Today's advocacy: Today Timothy serves as Secretariat of the UK All-Party Parliamentary Group on North Korea, speaking at the UN and urging sustained attention to the "voiceless" millions under DPRK repression.North Korea's unique isolation underpins mass repression through complete information control. The regime punishes families of defectors, while detention is often lethal by design. However, civil society and diplomatic action can save lives—one student's message triggered multilateral intervention. Of 34,000 estimated escapees, most remain fearfully silent to protect themselves and loved ones still inside.👉 Follow Timothy Cho on LinkedIn and Instagram👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or BlueSky👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn

In this compelling episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso interview Shannon Brandao – attorney, Mandarin speaker, and founder of the China Boss Substack – to explore China's expanding influence even as America appears to turn inward. Broadcasting from Europe, Brandao delivers her unique insights on Chinese Communist Party strategy, economic challenges, and geopolitical ambitions.Brandao emphasizes that perception easily becomes reality, in that when America appears to withdraw, China seizes opportunities to expand influence through economic leverage and promises of stability. This directly impacts Indo-Pacific supply chains controlling critical minerals, batteries, and essential products that Americans depend on daily.Rejecting claims that China seeks only regional stability, Brandao explains that the Chinese Communist Party operates from a paranoia that requires control to ensure regime survival. Under Xi Jinping, ruling "red aristocrats" fear vulnerability to external powers, and even successful Chinese entrepreneurs like Jack Ma, leading to enterprise nationalization and tight party control over innovation.While China faces economic headwinds, including debt, demographic challenges, and declining GDP, Xi Jinping has successfully modernized the military. Still, China's unreliable economic statistics mask systemic problems, with Communist Party interference undermining potential innovation, even despite a tremendous national talent base.China exercises strength in strategic sectors—solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles, shipbuilding, and artificial intelligence—through massive subsidies, but this creates a chronic overcapacity problem. Local government subsidies benefit politically connected firms like Huawei, creating quasi-monopolies across industries: steel, aluminum, cement, telecom gear, plastics, fertilizers, construction equipment, etc. Endemic corruption further dilutes programs, with billions disappearing from AI innovation funds.Companies attempting to leave China face complex challenges. When signaling departure, employees report to Party and government officials, triggering shakedowns through exit bans and extortionate demands. Recent surveys show companies staying but withholding investment and hedging elsewhere. For firms that do leave, repatriating profits and protecting intellectual property depends entirely on relationships with local government officials.Asked for what advice she would give to President Trump before meeting Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC Summit, Brandao warns that Xi will use flattery while masking the geopolitical reality, and that failing to press American interests in the Indo-Pacific creates vacuums China eagerly fills.👉 Follow the “China Boss” Shannon Brandao on LinkedIn or on her Substack👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In this special, in-person episode, host Ray Powell sits down with James Minnich, professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies and editor of the Center’s new book Edge of Competition: Disruption, Division, and Competition in the Indo-Pacific. Recorded in APCSS’ studios in Hawaii, they dive deep into the region's most pressing geopolitical challenges, exploring how disruption, division, and competition are reshaping global security and economics.James shares insights from the book, highlighting why the Indo-Pacific matters to everyone—from Taiwan Strait tensions and South China Sea disputes to the rise of multipolar dynamics involving China, the US, India, and ASEAN. They discuss whether we’ve reached "peak China," globalization's double-edged sword, ASEAN centrality, spheres of influence and the need for narrative warfare to counter malign influence operations. Plus, James recounts a story from his time at the UN Command Military Armistice Commission in South Korea, blending negotiation tactics with real-world security operations.Whether you're tracking US-China relations, maritime security in East Asia, or broader Indo-Pacific geopolitics, this episode unpacks the ongoing disruptions that are already impacting global trade, technology, and stability. Don't miss this expert analysis on Taiwan, Korean Peninsula security, and strategies for resilience in a competitive world.Key Topics Covered:Disruption in the Indo-Pacific: Peak China debates, Taiwan's semiconductor dominance, and globalization's risks.Division and Multipolarity: India's role, ASEAN communities of interest, and the pitfalls of spheres of influence.South China Sea escalations, South Korea's strategic clarity, and commanding the narrative against political warfare.Mastering the clock, weaponizing resilience, and proactive information strategies.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or BlueSky👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In this thought-provoking episode, we're joined by renowned Silicon Valley entrepreneur and defense reform advocate Steve Blank in a sweeping conversation on Pentagon innovation, the U.S.-China technological rivalry, and what it takes for democracies to outpace authoritarian competitors.Key Highlights & Takeaways:Diagnosing U.S. Innovation Stagnation: Steve dissects why the once dominant U.S. defense sector, long-dominated by the big “primes”, got overtaken by bureaucratic inertia—contrasted with China’s highly focused whole-of-nation approach. He examines how factors such as lobbying, revolving doors, and outmoded acquisition systems have played their parts in hampering adaptation to new threats.Hacking for Defense Origins: Steve unpacks how the “get out of the building” lean startup method moved from Silicon Valley to challenging national security problem-solving, birthing the global Hacking for Defense movement that started at Stanford but is now in dozens of universities worldwide.From “Innovation Theater” to Outcomes: The conversation critiques the proliferation of “incubators” unconnected to real acquisition, and highlights how meaningful reform only comes when new tech is linked to actual defense deployment.What’s Changing: Blank describes major reforms currently underway under the new Trump Administration: scrapping legacy acquisition hurdles, empowering innovation-focused leadership, expanding the Defense Innovation Unit, and setting new strategic priorities.Politics and Semiconductors: Steve provides a unique take on the CHIPS Act, Taiwan’s semiconductor leverage, and the evolution of U.S. “industrial policy” as exemplified by the U.S. government’s taking of a direct stake in the Intel Corporation.Practical Advice: Steve and the hosts help surface actionable lessons: embrace private-sector speed, connect innovation directly to field outcomes, and learn from adversaries who now copy America’s best ideas and occasionally outpace them.SeaLight Targeted by Beijing: Steve and Ray banter about how Ray’s innovation project inspired by Hacking for Defense blossomed into the SeaLight phenomenon, and how its success in illuminating China’s “gray zone” activities got both of them targeted by Beijing’s propaganda machine.This essential episode illuminates how democracies can survive and thrive amid global tech rivalry, and what must change if the U.S. hopes to remain a leader in security and defense innovation.👉 Follow Steve Blank at his website👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In this critical episode, host Jim Carouso welcomes two leading experts on the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) agreement to examine whether the landmark trilateral security partnership can deliver on its promises four years after its launch. Charlie Edel, inaugural Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and Abe Denmark, senior fellow at CSIS and a former DOD official who helped implement AUKUS, join to discuss their new report, "The AUKUS Inflection: Seizing the Opportunity to Deliver Deterrence."The conversation dives deep into five fundamental challenges threatening AUKUS’ success:• Submarine production bottlenecks plague the U.S. industrial base, with maintenance backlogs keeping 25% of attack submarines out of the water. • Sovereignty questions have emerged as Washington reportedly seeks Australian operational commitments for future contingencies. • Australia faces the massive challenge of building a nuclear submarine workforce from scratch—requiring 20,000 new skilled workers in a country with virtually no civilian nuclear industry.• AUKUS “Pillar 2” technology cooperation lacks focus and marquee deliverables despite bureaucratic progress on export controls and information sharing.•⁠⁠ Timeline pressures mount as critics question whether AUKUS capabilities will arrive too late for current deterrence needs, with Australian submarine construction not beginning until 2040.The experts propose concrete solutions: appointing AUKUS special representatives reporting directly to leaders in all three countries; creating an AUKUS visa system for seamless researcher mobility; establishing trilateral congressional oversight mechanisms; producing annual progress reports for transparency and accountability; and concentrating Pillar 2 efforts on autonomy, long-range strike and integrated missile defense rather than spreading resources across quantum computing and other emerging technologies that lawmakers struggle to understand.Denmark emphasizes that AUKUS should be viewed as additive rather than subtractive to existing capabilities, with Australian maintenance facilities and industrial contributions helping get more U.S. submarines operational faster. The discussion also touches on recent diplomatic engagements, including Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles' meetings in Washington amid ongoing U.S. reviews of the partnership.Both experts stress that while AUKUS faces significant implementation challenges, failure would damage U.S. credibility, weaken deterrence, and embolden adversaries. Success requires immediate course corrections, increased funding, and sustained political commitment across all three democracies to deliver meaningful capabilities for Indo-Pacific security.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or BlueSky👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.