Why Should We Care About Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's Unrequited Love Affair with Xi Jinping? | with Marites Vitug and Camille Elemia

In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and James Carouso dive deep into former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's dramatic 2016 pivot from the US to China. Joined by authors Marites Vitug and Camille Elemia, they discuss their book Unrequited Love: Duterte's China Embrace.

The conversation kicks off with why this "love affair" matters globally–how it reshaped South China Sea geopolitics, tested international law, and challenged the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty over Duterte’s six-year term in office. Duterte downplayed the 2016 arbitral ruling against China as "a piece of paper," turning a blind eye to Chinese incursions while seeking economic aid. Our guests explain how China provided cover for Duterte's drug war while the West heaped on criticism.

Duterte's pro-China tilt stemmed from personal history: As Davao City mayor, he built ties with Chinese businessmen and harbored anti-US resentment from incidents like when a suspected US agent allegedly implicated in a Davao City bombing incident was whisked out of the country. Influenced by communist professor Jose Maria Sison and his anti-imperialist mother, Duterte viewed America as imperialists. Yet, surveys show Filipinos mostly remain pro-US and distrust China, with 70-80% favoring assertion of West Philippine Sea rights.

The 2016 election saw Duterte win by portraying himself as an authentic outsider fighting a "narco state." His charm, social media savvy, and anti-elite messaging resonated, in contrast to his predecessor’s perceived lack of empathy.

Economically, however, the promised benefits fell flat: Duterte touted billions in Chinese loans, but only 3-4 infrastructure projects materialized. In return, the authors contend that China gained "free rein" in disputed waters, ultimately blocking Philippine resource exploration. Xi Jinping benefited from strategic breathing room, more ASEAN allies, and weakened US influence—though some in Duterte's cabinet resisted, voicing the military’s deep sentiments against appeasement.

Despite this, Rodrigo Duterte left office with his popularity largely intact due to his personal connection to the electorate, not his foreign policy. Our guests resist his supporters’ pragmatism claims, noting neighbors like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam are able to balance China without surrendering their sovereignty.

The authors express fears that his daughter Sara Duterte–the Philippines’ current vice president–may revive his pro-China policies if elected in 2028. She opposes US missiles like the Typhon; never criticizes Chinese aggression, and repeats his scare tactics about war. Unlike current President Ferdinand “BongBong” Marcos Jr., who pivoted back to the US, Sara lacks significant Western exposure. Her charisma, Duterte brand, and social media machine boost her chances, even amid a recent impeachment effort.

The episode touches on the recent Marcos-Trump deal (which saw tariffs barely cut from 20% to 19%), divided reactions in the Philippines, and media bubbles. The authors explain that President Duterte's current ICC detention for drug war crimes has drawn sympathy, potentially aiding Sara's bid.

A must-listen for insights on Philippine politics, US-China rivalry, South China Sea tensions, and Duterte's enduring legacy. Get the book on Amazon (ebook) or Ateneo Press. Follow guests on Facebook, LinkedIn, or X.

👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or LinkedIn

👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific