The past few weeks have seen U.S.-China tensions ratchet up. In early February, a U.S. fighter jet shot down what Washington concluded was a Chinese spy balloon off the east coast of the U.S., prompting loud condemnations from Beijing. Later that month, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, after meeting with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi at the Munich Security Conference, warned that China was considering giving lethal aid to Russia for its war efforts in Ukraine. He warned of serious consequences for Beijing if that happened. U.S.-China relations had seemed to be looking up after a meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jingping in November last year. These past few weeks, however, mark further deterioration, with some particularly harsh rhetoric from Beijing over the past few days. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Amanda Hsiao, Crisis Group's China expert, and Stephen Pomper, Crisis Group’s chief of policy, to talk about what to make of China's potential involvement in the Ukraine war, U.S.-China relations and tensions over Taiwan. They explore how Beijing sees its relations with Moscow, its stance on the Ukraine conflict and whether it is likely to send weapons, given it also appears reluctant to alienate Europeans. They discuss the spy balloon incident and heightened tensions between the US and China. They then talk about Chinese and U.S. policy toward Taiwan, particularly since the controversial August 2022 visit by then Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to the island, what to expect in the forthcoming Taiwanese presidential elections and how the Ukraine war is shaping calculations over the island.For more on the situation, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our China and Taiwan country page, and for more analysis on global issues, see our Multilateral Diplomacy page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

One year into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, prospects for a settlement remain bleak. On 21 February, President Vladimir Putin announced in a belligerent yearly address that he would suspend Russia’s participation in New START, its last remaining nuclear arms control treaty with the U.S. The speech followed U.S. President Joe Biden’s surprise visit to Kyiv, during which he reaffirmed Washington’s determination to support Ukraine. Top U.S. officials also warned that China was considering sending “lethal support” to Russia’s war efforts, which thus far it has avoided doing. Fierce fighting continues along front lines in Ukraine’s south and east, with Russian forces making small gains but seemingly incurring massive losses. Whether they can break Ukrainian lines before the tanks that several Western nations have promised Ukraine arrive, and what difference those tanks will make on the battlefield, remain to be seen.This week on Hold Your Fire!, Olga Oliker, Crisis Group's program director for Europe and Central Asia, joins Richard Atwood to assess where things stand. They discuss Putin’s yearly address and the significance of Russia suspending its participation in New START. They talk about the front lines in Ukraine and both sides’ ability to sustain their war effort. Olga talks about her recent visit to areas Ukrainian forces have recaptured from Russia and the challenges of reconstruction. They assess the mood in Kyiv, Moscow and Western capitals, and the potential impact of Chinese weapons and ammunition on the war. They also discuss both sides’ war goals, the difficulties of trying to hold the Kremlin accountable and what to watch in the months ahead.   For more on the situation in Ukraine, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nigerians will go to the polls on 25 February to elect a new president. The election is shaping up as a three-way contest between Bola Tinubu, a veteran Nigerian politician from the ruling All Progressives Congress party, Atiku Abubakar, a former vice president, and Peter Obi, who appears to have won over many young Nigerians. A cash crisis, caused by a bungled government policy to replace old banknotes, plus fuel shortages look set to complicate the vote. The country also grapples with an array of security threats – jihadist insurgencies in the north east, kidnapping and banditry especially in the north west, herder-farmer violence, and, in the south west, separatist violence, including against election staff. Despite a pact among the presidential candidates to avoid hate speech, their supporters often resort to divisive rhetoric.  This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Ayo Obe, Crisis Group’s Trustee and a Lagos-based lawyer and human rights activist, and ​​Nnamdi Obasi, Crisis Group’s senior Nigeria adviser, about the forthcoming vote. They look at the three main contenders, their campaigns and their prospects. They also discuss the impact of rampant insecurity on the vote and why identity politics look set to shape this election more than previous ones. They talk about the potential fallout from the cash crunch, concerns about vote-buying and risks of post-election disputes. Finally, they reflect on incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari’s legacy and the challenges facing his successor. For more on the situation in Nigeria, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Nigeria country page, and our recent report Mitigating Risks of Violence in Nigeria’s 2023 Elections. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Mark Malloch-Brown, president of Open Society Foundations (OSF), Crisis Group trustee, and former UN Deputy Secretary-General and UN Development Programme administrator, about challenges facing open societies today. They talk about the erosion of democracy around the world, including in the West, authoritarians’ increasing global influence and the challenge some of the more competent autocrats’ governance poses. They discuss the war in Ukraine, Western support to Kyiv, risks of escalation as new weaponry pours in, and whether trying to hold the Kremlin accountable for the crime of aggression could close avenues to a settlement. They also talk about what Western powers and international financial institutions can do to help poor countries suffering from rising inflation, debt burdens and, often, stress related to climate change. They also discuss how organisations like OSF and Crisis Group, which in some ways reflect the heady assumptions of the post-Cold War years, should adapt to a world very different to the one many people back then expected to emerge. For more on the situation in Ukraine, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page, and for more analysis on global issues, see our Multilateral Diplomacy page.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On Friday last week, a Palestinian gunman killed seven civilians in occupied East Jerusalem, the deadliest such attack for years. The shooting came the day after a raid by Israeli forces in a refugee camp in the West Bank city of Jenin, also the deadliest such operation for years. The week’s violence follows months in which more Palestinians died, according to human rights groups, than in the past almost two decades. More frequent Israeli raids, which Israel says aim to root out Palestinian militants behind an increasing number of attacks on Israelis, often provoke gun battles in West Bank cities. Militants have died, but also civilians, including many young Palestinians. In West Bank cities, new militias have formed, attracting young Palestinians angry not only at Israel but also at their own political leadership. Meanwhile, the new Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which is the most right-wing in Israeli history and comprises openly Jewish nationalist and anti-Palestinian ministers, promises an even tougher line on Palestinians. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Mairav Zonszein and Tahani Mustafa, Crisis Group’s Israel/Palestine experts, about the latest spike in violence. They talk about Israel’s new government, its efforts to curb judicial power and what it might mean for policy toward the Palestinians. They also talk about Palestinian politics, many Palestinians’ disillusionment at their leadership, the emergence of new militias in West Bank cities and what might happen when ageing Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas passes from the political scene. They ask whether there is any hope of change in policy from Washington and other Western capitals following U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip to the region this past week. They also talk about flashpoints in the months ahead.  For more on the situation, check out our latest report Managing Palestine’s Looming Leadership Transition and Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Israel/Palestine page Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On 24 January, Rwanda's defence forces fired a missile at a DR Congo army jet for allegedly violating Rwandan airspace. Congolese officials called the incident an “act of war”. The shooting has ratcheted up already high tensions between Rwandan and Congolese authorities, with the two governments at loggerheads since the resurgence of the M23 rebel group in late 2021. The M23 was defeated in 2013 but has re-emerged in the past year, taking control of significant areas in the eastern DR Congo’s North Kivu region. Kinshasa accuses Kigali of supporting the M23. Rwanda denies the allegations, though repeated UN reports offer strong evidence that the rebels are, indeed, supported by Rwanda. The fighting has triggered a humanitarian crisis, with hundreds of thousands displaced, many in the last few months.  This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Richard Moncrieff, Crisis Group’s interim Great Lakes project director, about the resurgence of the M23 in the DRC and how the conflict could affect the stability of the wider Great Lakes region. They talk about the origins of the M23, what its leaders want and its ties to Rwanda. They discuss how the conflict has worsened already fragile Rwandan-Congolese relations. They also delve into the efforts of the East African Community to defuse tensions in the DRC, particularly Kenya’s military and diplomatic involvement in the region, and examine the risks that the crisis in the DRC could trigger a wider conflagration. For more on the situation, check out Crisis Group’s latest Q&A “A Dangerous Escalation in the Great Lakes” and our extensive analysis on our Great Lakes regional page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia and Eritrea from Crisis Group's The Horn podcast.The contemporary rivalry between Eritrea and Tigray goes back several decades. After an almost-17-year-long civil war starting in the mid-1970s, the Eritrean EPLF and Tigrayan TPLF jointly defeated Ethiopia’s Derg regime in 1991, resulting in Eritrea’s independence and the TPLF taking power in Ethiopia. Despite their joint achievement, their already-complicated relations soon started to sour. A growing power struggle, as well as unresolved territorial disputes between the two sides, led to a deadly border war lasting from 1998 to 2000. Meanwhile, an increasingly repressive Eritrean regime found itself regionally and globally isolated. A new administration in Ethiopia under Abiy Ahmed signed a peace agreement with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki in 2018, formally ending the border war. However, this rapprochement between Addis Ababa and Asmara also appeared to pave the way for Ethiopia’s civil war, with Eritrea allying with Ethiopia’s federal government in the war against Tigrayan forces in northern Ethiopia that started in 2020.In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Michael Woldemariam, associate professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, to take a deep dive into the long and tumultuous relationship between Eritrea and Tigray to understand Eritrea’s motives and objectives in the Ethiopian conflict. They talk about the origins of the relations between the EPLF and the TPLF and their shared struggle against Ethiopia’s Derg regime from the 1970s to 1991. They unpack how relations between the two sides soured in a struggle for power and authority, culminating in the deadly border clashes starting in 1998. They also discuss how Eritrean President Afwerki’s motivations in the conflict in northern Ethiopia have shifted over time. Finally, they talk about how to navigate Eritrea’s role while trying to end the conflict in Tigray. Please note that this episode was recorded before the 2 November truce agreement between Ethiopia’s federal government and Tigray’s leaders.For more in-depth analysis on Ethiopia and Eritrea, make sure to check out our Horn of Africa regional page.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On this week’s Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood is joined by Comfort Ero, Crisis Group’s president and CEO, and Stephen Pomper, chief of policy, to reflect on 2022 and look ahead to 2023. They talk through “10 Conflicts to Watch”, Crisis Group’s yearly flagship commentary co-published with Foreign Policy magazine. They discuss Russia’s war in Ukraine, its global ramifications and what it says about global affairs today. They also take a look at other flashpoints on the list, which this year includes Ukraine, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Iran, Yemen, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Sahel, Haiti, Pakistan and Taiwan. Lastly, they talk about how we put the list together and, despite a generally gloomy and unsettling year, where we can look for signs of hope. For more information, check out our flagship commentary, by Comfort Ero and Richard Atwood, with Foreign Policy magazine: “10 Conflicts to Watch in 2023” you can also check out Crisis Group’s Twitter thread 10 Reasons For Hope in 2023. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Haiti has long suffered political crises, gang violence and natural disasters, but the past two years have been especially cruel. In July 2021, gunmen murdered then President Jovenel Moïse in his home in the capital Port-Au-Prince. Ariel Henry took over as prime minister, supposed to shepard the country to elections. But rampant violence renders a credible vote impossible, and Henry’s dismissal of the election commission has hardly helped. Gang violence has spiralled, as rival gangs battle for control of parts of Port-au-Prince. Some estimates suggest gangs control some 60 per cent of the capital, as well as all main roads leading to the city and, for almost two months, the country’s main port. Protesters have repeatedly taken to the streets, angered at the gang violence and at hikes in fuel prices, triggered by Henry’s removal of subsidies. With shortages of drinking water, cholera is spreading and difficult to curb in gang-controlled areas. In early October, Henry requested that foreign troops deploy to help Haitian police take on gangs. Many Haitians, including Henry’s political opponents, oppose another intervention after repeated failures of foreign involvement in the past, though some Haitians, particularly in areas most affected by gang violence, are more supportive, seemingly out of sheer desperation. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Renata Segura, Crisis Group’s deputy Latin America and Caribbean director, and Diego Da Rin, consulting Haiti expert, about the crisis. They talk about what life is like under gang control, the fight between the two main gang coalitions, G9 and G-PEP, as well as their leaders’ backgrounds and links to Haiti’s politics. They discuss Haiti’s political crisis and Ariel Henry’s rule since Moïse’s killing. They also talk about the prospect of foreign forces deploying to Haiti, the challenges any mission would face, and whether it could help loosen the grip of Haiti’s gangs over much of the country and bring a measure of stability for long-suffering Haitians.For more on the situation in Haiti, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Haiti country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Winter is setting in as the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches. Recent months have seen Ukrainian forces advance, but whether front lines will continue to shift as the weather changes remains unclear. Russia, which has mobilised some 300,000 new soldiers in recent months, has reportedly sent them to the front lines with little preparation. It claims to have annexed large parts of its neighbour, brandishes nuclear threats and has embarked on a weeks-long bombardment of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing blackouts across much of the country. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, speaking from a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Bucharest, accused Russia of “weaponising winter” to break the Ukrainian people’s will and the unity of Kyiv's Western backers. For now, however, Western capitals appear in no mood to reduce their support to Ukraine. In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia program director, about where Russia’s war in Ukraine might be headed next. They talk about how the winter might affect battlefield dynamics and the impact of Russia’s bombardment of Ukrainian energy infrastructure. They discuss whether Russia might yet gamble on using a nuclear weapon and what Western and other governments can do to deter that. They ask whether opinion around the world toward the war is changing. They look at NATO policy and what an acceptable settlement for Ukraine and Western capitals might look like. Finally, as U.S. President Joe Biden says he would be prepared to meet his Russian counterpart to talk about Ukraine, they ask whether any space exists for diplomacy to find a way to end the war. For more on the situation in Ukraine, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.