Hold Your Fire!

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey to talk about the offensive launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, comprising three ethnic armed groups, that has made rapid advances against Myanmar’s military in northern Shan State. They talk about the offensive and what the various ethnic armed groups hope to gain. They look at the illicit economy along the northern border areas, China’s border management approach, Beijing’s policy and its worries about online scam centres in Myanmar’s east. They also talk about the resistance forces across Myanmar that emerged when the junta cracked down on post-coup protests, relations between those forces and the ethnic armed groups, and how they view the latest surge in fighting. They discuss Myanmar’s growing humanitarian needs and massive displacement over the past few years.For more analysis on the recent fighting in Myanmar, check out our Q&A A New Escalation of Armed Conflict in Myanmar and our Myanmar page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, Crisis Group experts Tahani Mustafa and Heiko Wimmen, along with Daniel Levy, discuss the surge in settler attacks in the West Bank, escalating tensions at the Israel-Lebanon border, and hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza. They also assess the odds of an Israel-Hamas hostage deal, the U.S.'s role in halting the fighting, and prospects for restarting political talks between Israelis and Palestinians.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Alan Boswell and Shewit Woldemichael to talk about the latest developments in Sudan’s civil war, where fighting between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has been raging for almost seven months. They talk about the recent advances by the RSF in Darfur, where the Sudanese army has been largely routed, and what the recent gains mean for the war’s trajectory. They talk about the RSF’s motives in fighting and what its leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemedti, hopes to gain from the war. They discuss the army’s weakness and increasing reliance on Islamist forces formerly associated with long-serving ruler Omar al-Bashir. They also examine the dearth of serious diplomacy aimed at ending the war. For more analysis on the war in Sudan, check out our Sudan page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Robert Blecher and Azmi Keshawi to discuss Israel’s assault on Gaza, the mood in Israel nearly a month after Hamas’s 7 October attacks and whether Israeli concerns about Hamas can be addressed without such devastation and civilian harm in Gaza. Richard first talks to Mairav and Robert about Israel’s operations thus far, whether its goals in Gaza are evolving and the nature of U.S. support. They discuss prospects for a ceasefire or at least a pause in fighting, perhaps in exchange for Hamas releasing ome hostages, and whether that could buy some space for diplomacy. Richard then talks to Azmi about life in Gaza under Israeli bombardment and short of basic necessities. For more analysis on the war in Gaza, check out our Israel/Palestine page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia Director Olga Oliker and U.S. Director Michael Hanna to discuss the war in Gaza, its implications for Ukraine and U.S. President Joe Biden’s efforts to navigate the crisis in the Middle East while supporting Ukraine’s defence against Russia. They first look at Ukraine’s fears that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could divert Western resources away from its fight against Russia’s invasion. They talk about U.S. attempts to get aid to both Israel and Ukraine despite a divided Congress. They look at how Russia views what is happening in the Middle East, whether a wider regional war may be in Moscow’s interest and how much sway it has in the region. They also talk about the impact of the Gaza war on the regional diplomacy underway before Hamas’s attacks, notably between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and efforts by the U.S. to encourage Saudi Arabia to normalise relations with Israel.For more analysis of the conflict in Israel-Palestine, you can check out our latest statement A Ceasefire in Gaza and our Israel/Palestine page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Topics discussed in this podcast include Biden's visit to Israel, Israel's potential ground invasion of Gaza, the devastating blast at al-Ahli Arab Hospital, escalating violence in the West Bank, the exchange of fire between Israeli army and Hizbollah, and the potential dangers in the Middle East region.

For the first episode of a new season of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Joost Hiltermann, Mairav Zonszein and Azmi Keshawi to discuss Hamas’s shock attack on Israel over the weekend and its potential consequences. The attack saw Palestinian gunmen rampage through southern Israel killing some 1,200 Israelis, many of whom were civilians, including women, children, the elderly and entire families. In response, Israel has bombed and blockaded Gaza, and is gearing up for a ground offensive. Richard first talks to Azmi in Gaza about life for Gazans under the Israeli bombardment and their views of Hamas. He then talks with Mairav about Israelis’ shock at the horrific attacks, the intelligence failures that Hamas exploited and the mood among Israelis. He and Joost discuss what Hamas hoped to gain, outside actors’ involvement, how the war affects Arab politics and Israeli-Saudi normalisation talks, and the dangers of escalation, particularly involving the Lebanese militant group Hizbollah. At the end of the episode, Richard speaks to Azmi again after his displacement from Gaza City. For more analysis of the conflict in Israel-Palestine, you can check out our latest commentary A Second October War in Israel-Palestine and our Israel/Palestine page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Almost three months into the war in Sudan that has pitted the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) against the Sudanese Army, the fighting shows no sign of slowing. Khartoum remains the epicentre, but Sudan’s periphery, especially the West Darfur region, has seen a dramatic resurgence in intercommunal violence. Mediation efforts have thus far yielded little. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined again by Crisis Group’s Senior Sudan Analyst Shewit Woldemichael and Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Project Director Alan Boswell to talk about the war. They discuss the tragedy unfolding in Darfur, where civilians have increasingly become the target of resurging ethnic violence. They talk about the latest battlefield dynamics between Sudan’s Army and the RSF in Khartoum and if either side stands a chance of prevailing militarily. They also discuss why mediation efforts by the U.S., Saudi Arabia and African leaders have made little headway and the consequences of a protracted war. For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to check out our Sudan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Egypt and Sudan from Crisis Group's The Horn podcast.The conflict in Sudan between the country’s armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been a major source of concern for its northern neighbour Egypt. Cairo, a backer of Sudan’s army, now faces both a humanitarian crisis that is spilling over into its borders and an increasingly challenging geopolitical landscape with Sudan, an ally since the fall of Omar al-Bashir in 2019, descending into chaos.This week on The Horn, Alan talks with Michael Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program director, about Egypt’s role in the war in Sudan. They look at the historical ties between the two countries, current political dynamics, and Egypt’s response to the 2019 popular uprising and political transition in Sudan. They discuss what is behind Cairo’s support for the Sudanese armed forces and how it positioned itself toward the current conflict in Sudan. They also discuss Cairo’s views of U.S.-led diplomacy and the role of Gulf powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Sudan and the Horn of Africa more generally. They also talk about the long-running dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and how the war in Sudan might affect Cairo’s diplomacy in the region more broadly. For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Sudan and Egypt country pages.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Over the weekend, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Russian private security company known as the Wagner Group, spearheaded an insurrection in Russia. In response to Kremlin moves to bring Wagner under the Russian army’s command and, according to him, attacks on a Wagner base by the Russian military, the group seized the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, the main staging ground for Russia’s Ukraine war. Wagner forces then advanced to within 200km of Moscow before Prigozhin backed down and agreed to leave for Belarus and demobilise his forces involved in the uprising. Wagner’s future, particularly in areas of Africa and the Middle East in which it operates, is uncertain. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks first with Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia Director Olga Oliker about what drove Prigozhin’s rebellion and what it means for the Kremlin and its war in Ukraine. Richard then talks to Sahel Director Jean-Hervé Jezequel and UN Director Richard Gowan about how the uprising might affect Wagner’s operations in Africa, particularly in Mali. They look at how the Malian transitional authorities’ ties to Moscow and Wagner have influenced Bamako’s foreign relations and their recent demand that the Security Council pull out UN peacekeepers from Mali. They also examine what the withdrawal of the mission might mean for the fight against jihadists in Mali and a peace process in the country’s north that is already under strain. For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Russia and Africa pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.