Military Rule and Russian Mercenaries in the Sahel
Mar 1, 2024
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Exploring military leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger withdrawing from ECOWAS, backed by Russian mercenaries and strained relations with West African capitals. Discussion on the challenges against jihadist insurgencies, potential talks with militants, and risks of further coups in the Sahel region.
Military leaders in Sahel withdrawing from ECOWAS signals a shift towards military rule and rejection of Western influence.
Sahel military regimes struggle to deliver basic services despite intensifying campaigns against jihadist insurgents.
Deep dives
Military Withdrawal from Regional Blocs Impact on West African Countries
The decision of military leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to withdraw from the West African regional bloc, Ecowas, reflects a shift towards military rule in the three countries. This withdrawal signifies a rejection of Ecowas' sanctions and Western influence, particularly from France. These military-led governments have intensified their offensive against Islamist militants with the support of Russian mercenaries, aiming to restore sovereignty and build internal legitimacy. The economic and financial consequences of this withdrawal could significantly impact the region's population.
Military Rule Challenges and Impacts in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger
The military regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger face complex challenges and impacts. These regimes have consolidated power through coups and shifted alliances towards Russia, distancing themselves from traditional Western partners. Despite facing ongoing security threats from jihadist groups like Jamiat nosr al-Islam wal-Muslimeen (JNIM) and ISIS affiliates, the military leaders struggle to deliver basic services to their populations, leading to significant economic and social consequences.
Struggles and Engagements with Jihadist Groups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger
The Sahelian countries engage in localized talks with jihadist groups to negotiate local ceasefires and security measures, reflecting a nuanced approach to counterinsurgency. While military operations persist, the potential for dialogue with jihadists remains critical to complement military efforts. The regimes' decisions to balance military action with political engagement could influence the region's stability and future trajectory amidst ongoing security concerns.
Challenges and Contagion Fears in West African Politics
The fear of military coup contagion in the Sahel region and beyond highlights broader challenges in West African governance. Diverse responses to military captures of power, as seen in Senegal and other countries, underscore the resilience of democratic institutions and civil society. The resistance against postponement of elections and efforts to uphold democratic principles exemplify efforts to safeguard governance systems amidst regional instability.
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Sahel director, Jean-Hervé Jezequel, to discuss the decision of military leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to withdraw from the regional bloc ECOWAS, their campaigns against jihadist insurgencies, backed by Russian mercenaries and what might lie ahead for the region. They unpack the strained relationship between the three countries and West African and Western capitals and their seemingly closer relations to Moscow. They look at how military leaders’ rhetoric emphasising their sovereignty has won support among parts of the population but also its limits in terms of enabling them to deliver the basic services that citizens need. They discuss whether the Sahel’s new authorities might at some point talk to jihadist militants. They also assess the risks of further coups in the region.