Comfort Ero, Crisis Group's president, and CEO, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, discuss Crisis Group's '10 Conflicts to Watch in 2024'. They explore conflicts in Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar, Ethiopia, the Sahel, Haiti, Armenia-Azerbaijan, the Middle East, and the U.S.-China rivalry. They also touch on trends in conflict, U.S. elections, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the changing dynamics of U.S. influence, prospects for a peace deal in Ukraine, and the role of the U.S. in peace and diplomacy.
The annual list of 10 conflicts to watch in 2024 includes Gaza, the wider Middle East, Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar, Ethiopia, the Sahel, Haiti, Armenia-Azerbaijan, and the U.S.-China rivalry.
The Gaza conflict showcases the challenges of destroying Hamas militarily, the geopolitical implications, and the risk of a wider war in the Middle East.
The war in Sudan, fueled by a power struggle between the Sudanese army and the rapid support forces, highlights the lack of global attention and the role of external actors like the United Arab Emirates.
Deep dives
Overview of 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2024
The podcast episode discusses Crisis Group's annual list of 10 conflicts to watch in 2024. The conflicts identified are the War in Gaza, Risks of a wider Middle East War, Sudan's Civil War, Ukraine, Myanmar, Ethiopia's violence in the Amhara and Hora More regions, Sahel gang violence, Haiti, tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and US-China relations. The list aims to draw attention to conflicts with high death tolls, grave humanitarian consequences, geopolitical significance, and recent developments warranting attention. The conversation delves into the main trends influencing these conflicts, such as leaders feeling emboldened to push military boundaries, global politics being in disarray, and a sense of foreboding in conflict prevention efforts.
The Gaza Conflict and Regional Ramifications
The podcast focuses on the Gaza conflict, highlighting both Israel's suffering and the devastation faced by the people of Gaza. It recognizes Israel's right to defend its citizens while acknowledging the unbearable loss and suffering in Gaza. The discussion explores the challenges of destroying Hamas militarily, the geopolitical implications of the conflict, and the risk of a wider war in the Middle East. The conversation also touches on the importance of a ceasefire, concerns about the role of the US in resolving the conflict, and the impact of the conflict on the Red Sea region.
The Situation in Sudan
The podcast brings attention to the war in Sudan, describing it as the country's worst conflict with little global attention. The conflict is primarily a local power struggle between the Sudanese army and the rapid support forces (RSF). However, external involvement, particularly by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), raises concerns about destabilization in the Red Sea region. The discussion highlights the challenges of forging a peace agreement in Sudan due to division, regional interests, and the lack of a clear way forward. The role of the United States in Sudanese diplomacy is also considered.
The War in Ukraine and US Politics
The podcast addresses the ongoing war in Ukraine and the impact of US politics on the situation. The front lines in Ukraine remain static, and the prospects for a peace deal are uncertain. The US politics surrounding Ukraine are complex, with debates over aid packages and concerns about future US support. The role of European governments in supporting Ukraine is also emphasized. The conversation highlights the importance of US engagement and the need for stability in the region, while acknowledging the challenges and uncertainties ahead.
Uncertainty in US Global Role and US-China Relations
The podcast explores the uncertainty surrounding the US global role and its implications for US-China relations. It highlights the changing dynamics of US power, the impact of domestic politics on foreign policy, and the challenges the US faces in shaping global politics. The importance of a stable US-China relationship is emphasized, with discussions on the accomplishments of US engagement in Asia and concerns about potential changes in US policy. The podcast underlines the need for clarity and stability in US global leadership.
On this week’s Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Comfort Ero, Crisis Group’s president and CEO, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to reflect on 2023 and look ahead to 2024. They talk through Crisis Group’s “10 Conflicts to Watch in 2024”, this year’s edition of Crisis Group’s annual flagship commentary by Comfort and Richard, co-published with Foreign Policy magazine. The list this year includes Gaza, the wider Middle East, Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar, Ethiopia, the Sahel, Haiti, Armenia-Azerbaijan and the U.S.-China rivalry. Comfort, Richard and Steve also talk through wider trends underpinning the uptick in conflict over recent years and what U.S. elections this year mean for world affairs and the U.S.’s global role.
