Recent years have seen increasing fear in some Gulf of Guinea countries, notably Benin, Togo, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, that jihadists who have overrun much of the Sahel move south. Militants already operate in forested areas along the Benin-Burkina Faso border, and northern Benin and Togo have both seen an uptick in jihadist attacks. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa Deputy Director Pauline Bax and Sahel Senior Analyst Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim to discuss what’s behind militants’ southward march. They first look at how jihadists captured swaths of Burkina Faso, which borders several Gulf of Guinea countries and could serve as a gateway to coastal West Africa. They ask whether coastal governments should see the presence of militants in their north as spillover from the Sahel or a problem rooted in the local politics of often-neglected regions. They talk about how militants are recruiting and raising money. They also look at the policies of the different governments involved, coordination among them and the involvement of Western capitals and Russia, among outside powers. They look at how coastal countries in West Africa differ from their Sahelian neighbours and what they can learn from mistakes in the Sahel. For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to check out our Sahel and West Africa regional pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Last week, Libya’s parliament fired one of the country’s two prime ministers, Fathi Bashaga. Libya for years has been split between two rival governments. An internationally recognised prime minister, Abdelhamid Dabaiba, sits in the capital Tripoli and a rival government, until recently headed by Bashaga, is based mostly in the east. Last summer, Bashaga, who was backed by Khalifa Haftar, a powerful commander from eastern Libya, tried several times to seize Tripoli by force. Those efforts failed, costing Bashaga a lot of support in the east. Over recent months, Haftar’s camp and Dabaiba have been holding quiet talks. Violence has mostly subsided and the country has experienced something of an economic upturn thanks to increasing oil revenues. Still, the political gridlock remains. The newly appointed UN envoy for Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, has laid out a roadmap to elections, but his plan does not seem to enjoy much support from either camp.  This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Libya expert Claudia Gazzini, recently in Tripoli, to talk about Libya’s gridlock. They take stock of the dynamics between the rivalling political factions in the country, prospects for the Haftar-Dabaiba talks and also for elections. They discuss changing geopolitical winds in the region, particularly how better ties between Türkiye, which has long backed the internationally recognised government in Tripoli, and Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, which back Haftar, have made foreign involvement in Libya less fraught. They also talk about Libyan factions’ potential links to the fighting in Sudan and the danger of spillover. For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to check out our Libya country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Saudi Arabia’s diplomacy is flourishing after a decade in which Riyadh has been entangled in regional conflicts and rivalries. Over the past few years, Saudi Arabia has turned the page on the Gulf Cooperation Council dispute, opened talks with Huthi rebels in Yemen, agreed to re-open diplomatic relations with Iran and welcomed Syrian president Bashar al-Assad back to the Arab League. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Abdulaziz Sager, Founder and Chairman of the Gulf Research Center and Crisis Group trustee, to talk about Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy. They talk about Syria at the Arab League, last March’s China-brokered Saudi-Iran deal, how Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program might impact Saudi-Iran relations, and Riyadh’s talks with the Huthis. They also discuss the rapprochement within the Gulf Cooperation Council and Saudi Arabia’s hosting, with the U.S., of talks between Sudan’s warring factions. They examine how Riyadh is positioning itself in an era of friction between its traditional security partner, the U.S., and China, its most important market, and how it has navigated the collapse in Russia-West relations over Ukraine. They ask whether Saudi Arabia’s recent diplomacy represents a recalibration and if so, why the change and what is its significance. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Fighting between the Sudanese armed forces and a rival paramilitary outfit, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has torn apart Sudan for nearly a month. The capital Khartoum and its residents have borne the brunt of the violence, with millions caught in the city and supplies of drinking water, food and medicine running low. Hundreds of thousands have left their homes. This past week, the warring parties’ representatives have met in the Saudi city Jeddah for talks brokered by Saudi Arabia and the U.S., though observers remain sceptical that they will reach an agreement on a ceasefire, let alone an end to the war and transition to civilian rule.This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined again by Crisis Group’s Senior Sudan Analyst Shewit Woldemichael and Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Project Director Alan Boswell to discuss how the fighting is evolving and prospects for the Jeddah talks. They discuss the clashes in Khartoum and in Sudan’s western Darfur region, the humanitarian fallout and the latest from Jeddah. They talk about the implications of including only the warring parties, rather than also civilians or other armed groups, in the talks, and of the Saudi-U.S. lead. They also talk about the risks of others getting involved, whether Sudanese rebels or outside powers, the longer the war drags on. For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to check out our Sudan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As fighting rages in Ukraine, with high casualties but little ground gained or lost on either side, Kyiv seems poised to launch its much anticipated counteroffensive. New Western equipment, including tanks, has arrived and Ukraine appears to have struck Russian supply lines, including in Crimea. Russia, meanwhile, has dug in along key stretches of the front and upped attacks on Ukrainian towns and cities, mostly hitting civilian infrastructure. This past week also saw an alleged attempted drone attack on the Kremlin, with Moscow blaming Kyiv and Washington, both of which denied the accusation. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Program Director for Europe and Central Asia. They look at what the counteroffensive might entail and what success would look like for Ukraine and its Western backers. They examine Russia’s calculations, the alleged drone attacks on the Kremlin and what it would take to lessen Moscow’s seeming determination to keep fighting. They also discuss debates in Western capitals about supplying Kyiv with advanced fighter jets, how the Ukraine war is playing out in U.S. politics ahead of the 2024 elections and what it all means for Western unity in backing Ukraine. For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to check out our Ukraine country page and our commentary Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud: Russia’s New Vision for Taking on the West. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sudan has entered its second week of fighting between rival military factions. Battles between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have torn apart cities and towns, especially the capital Khartoum, where millions of civilians are facing shortages of basic necessities. A 72-hour ceasefire between the rival forces has offered some respite, allowing many Sudanese to flee the country and diplomats’ and other foreign nationals’ evacuation. But clashes still continue and mediators have struggled to convince the two sides to get back to talks. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa Program director. They discuss what’s behind the power struggle between the Sudanese armed forces and the RSF, and between the men – General Abel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo – in command of each. They discuss the devastation a full-scale civil war would cause, efforts by the U.S., Gulf power and African leaders to mediate, and the conflict’s geopolitics and risk of outside involvement. They look back at how Sudan’s transition unravelled and the challenges facing talks and getting to civilian rule if the parties do get back to the table. For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Sudan country page and our latest statement; Stopping Sudan’s Descent into Full-Blown Civil War. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Two rival armies are driving Sudan toward full-blown civil war. Fighting between the Sudanese armed forces, led by Abdelfattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary force led by Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo, is tearing apart cities and towns across the country, including the capital Khartoum. The battles have already killed hundreds of civilians and left millions more facing shortages of basic necessities. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Senior Sudan Analyst Shewit Woldemichael and Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Project Director Alan Boswell to look at the background to the crisis and what can be done to halt the fighting. They look at evolving tensions between the army and the RSF since Sudan’s 2019 popular uprising, especially since the 2021 coup, when Burhan and Hemedti seized full control of the state from civilians with whom they had been sharing power. They explain the trigger for the fighting: a dispute over how to integrate the RSF into regular army ranks. They discuss how Hemedti, a figure from outside Sudan’s traditional Nile elites, emerged as an influential power broker and what he wants in the confrontation with Burhan. They also talk about the two military leaders’ foreign ties, the danger that outside powers will get sucked into Sudan’s conflict and prospects for mediation. Finally, they ask what went wrong with Sudan’s transition after the 2019 uprising and whether external actors, particularly Western governments, could have done more to prevent its collapse. For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Sudan country page and our latest statement; Stopping Sudan’s Descent into Full-Blown Civil War. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in power for two decades, faces a stiff challenge in Türkiye’s forthcoming election, which will take place only a few months after devastating earthquakes killed some 50,000 people. The vote comes at a time of evolving Turkish foreign affairs. Some years ago, Ankara was boxed in, its relations with its neighbours, the Gulf and some of its Western NATO allies fraught. Today, things look different. Ankara has gone some way to repair ties in the region. Its support has been pivotal to partners in the South Caucasus and Libya. It has developed an indigenous drone industry, with weapons sales heightening Türkiye’s influence abroad. While the Ukraine war has tested Ankara's balancing act between NATO membership and ties to Moscow,  Erdoğan has notched up diplomatic successes, notably helping the UN broker a Ukraine-Russia deal that gets Ukrainian grain onto global markets via the Black Sea. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Nigar Göksel, Crisis Group’s project director for Türkiye, to discuss Ankara’s foreign policy and whether a change in government would bring a change in policy. They look at Türkiye’s delicate balancing act in Ukraine, supporting Kyiv while keeping lines of communication open to the Kremlin. They discuss several hotspots where Türkiye is involved: the country’s struggles against Kurdish militants in Syria and Iraq, its troops deployed to enforce a ceasefire in north west Syria, and its role in the standoff between Azerbaijan and Armenia. They talk about the dramatic expansion in Turkiye’s drone production and what influence weapons sales to many countries give Ankara. They also talk about Erdoğan’s pivot away from “precious loneliness” toward mending relations with neighbours and Gulf capitals. They talk about what Turkiye’s more assertive foreign policy says about how non-Western middle powers can defend their interests in a changing global order. For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Türkiye country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Over recent months, the Somali army, backed by clan militias, has recaptured areas in central Somalia from Al-Shabaab militants. Profiting from local anger at Al-Shabaab’s predation, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government has deployed Somali forces to Hirshabelle and Galmudug states, just north of the capital, Mogadishu, to fight militants. The campaign has reversed some of Al-Shabaab’s gains of the past few years, forcing the militants out of several areas, including some important towns. Yet big challenges remain. Al-Shabaab continues to mount resistance in parts of central Somalia. In recaptured areas, the government must ensure disputes among clans do not flare up again and show locals its value – in the short term by delivering aid and over time by reestablishing services like health and education. Fighting Al-Shabaab in its southern strongholds – the government’s planned next phase of operations – will likely be a tougher slog. The al-Qaeda linked insurgency has weathered previous offensives only to bounce back. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's senior analyst for East Africa, about this latest fight against Al-Shabaab and the challenges that lie ahead. They discuss the clan politics in central Somalia that have enabled the government’s offensive. They look at the challenges in stabilising recaptured areas and curbing Al-Shabaab's formidable revenue generation, including its parallel tax system. They look at the drought blighting parts of the country and how Al-Shabaab’s predation, in combination with water shortages, has forced a wave of displacement. They also discuss fighting – separate to the war with Al-Shabaab – on the edge of Somaliland, a northern region that declared independence in 1991. They ask whether the latest offensive against Al-Shabaab stands any hope of dealing the Islamists a decisive blow, or whether it is better seen as a way to weaken the group and force it to negotiate. For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our recent briefing, Sustaining Gains in Somalia’s Offensive against Al-Shabaab and our Somalia country page.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Last week, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to restore diplomatic relations in a deal brokered by China. The two countries had broken off ties in 2016, after Saudi authorities executed a prominent Shiite cleric and dissident, prompting protesters in Tehran to sack the Saudi embassy. Last week’s deal follows several rounds of talks, hosted by Iraq and Oman over recent years, between Iranian and Saudi officials. It comes at a time of deepening Iranian ties to Russia, with Iran sending weapons to help Moscow’s war efforts in Ukraine. In contrast, Tehran’s relations with Europe and the U.S. are at a new low, due partly to anger in Western capitals at the Islamic Republic’s brutal repression of the protests, often led by young women, that have engulfed the country over recent months. Western leaders are incensed, too, by Iran’s support for Russia in Ukraine. Talks over Iran’s nuclear program are on hold, even as it has advanced dramatically. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran project director and senior adviser to the president, to shed light on the Saudi-Iranian deal, Tehran’s evolving foreign relations and the looming crisis over its nuclear program. They discuss the recent agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia and what both sides, and China, get from the deal. They look at efforts to end Yemen’s war and Iran’s influence over Huthi rebels. They talk about what is driving the change in Iran's relations with Russia. They also discuss Iran's worsening relations with Europe and the U.S. and prospects for diplomacy to head off a confrontation over its rapidly advancing nuclear capability. For more on the situation, check out our latest Q&A How Beijing Helped Riyadh and Tehran Reach a Detente and Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Iran country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.