Hold Your Fire!

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia Director Olga Oliker to talk about recent developments in Ukraine and where things might be headed after almost two years of war. They discuss why Ukraine’s counteroffensive failed to break through Russian defences, whether a war of attrition now plays to Russia’s benefit and how it might shape Ukrainian and Russian politics. They also discuss signs that Ukraine’s Western backers could be wavering in their support, which has been critical to war efforts, and what a Trump presidency might mean for Kyiv. They also look at prospects for diplomacy in the year ahead. For more on the situation in Ukraine, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Comfort Ero, Crisis Group's president, and CEO, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, discuss Crisis Group's '10 Conflicts to Watch in 2024'. They explore conflicts in Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar, Ethiopia, the Sahel, Haiti, Armenia-Azerbaijan, the Middle East, and the U.S.-China rivalry. They also touch on trends in conflict, U.S. elections, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the changing dynamics of U.S. influence, prospects for a peace deal in Ukraine, and the role of the U.S. in peace and diplomacy.

Israeli operations in Gaza and the danger of clashes with Hezbollah. Efforts by Palestinian factions to form a united front. Significance of killing a Hamas leader in Beirut. Risk of clashes between Hezbollah and Israel escalating. Destruction and humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Phases of operations in the war. Palestinian politics and reconciliation efforts. Creating a unified Palestinian front. Escalating tensions and strategic dilemmas. Updates on recent work and upcoming episodes.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran Project Director Ali Vaez to talk about Iran’s position on the war in Gaza and its advantages and drawbacks for Tehran. They look at Iran’s links with what it calls the “Axis of Resistance” – Hizbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as Palestinian militants including Hamas – and its strategy of using such groups to extend its influence in the region and as deterrence against attacks on Iran by its rivals. They also assess how the war has affected Iran’s nuclear ambitions, with its nuclear program ever more advanced and a potential nuclear crisis looming. They talk about Iran’s relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states and the prospects that diplomacy in the region can reduce risks of a wider war, either related to Gaza or Iran’s nuclear program.  For more analysis on the risks of U.S.-Iran escalation, check out our Q&A Understanding the Risks of U.S.-Iran Escalation amid the Gaza Conflict, as well as our Iran and Israel/Palestine pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey to talk about the offensive launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, comprising three ethnic armed groups, that has made rapid advances against Myanmar’s military in northern Shan State. They talk about the offensive and what the various ethnic armed groups hope to gain. They look at the illicit economy along the northern border areas, China’s border management approach, Beijing’s policy and its worries about online scam centres in Myanmar’s east. They also talk about the resistance forces across Myanmar that emerged when the junta cracked down on post-coup protests, relations between those forces and the ethnic armed groups, and how they view the latest surge in fighting. They discuss Myanmar’s growing humanitarian needs and massive displacement over the past few years.For more analysis on the recent fighting in Myanmar, check out our Q&A A New Escalation of Armed Conflict in Myanmar and our Myanmar page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, Crisis Group experts Tahani Mustafa and Heiko Wimmen, along with Daniel Levy, discuss the surge in settler attacks in the West Bank, escalating tensions at the Israel-Lebanon border, and hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza. They also assess the odds of an Israel-Hamas hostage deal, the U.S.'s role in halting the fighting, and prospects for restarting political talks between Israelis and Palestinians.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Alan Boswell and Shewit Woldemichael to talk about the latest developments in Sudan’s civil war, where fighting between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has been raging for almost seven months. They talk about the recent advances by the RSF in Darfur, where the Sudanese army has been largely routed, and what the recent gains mean for the war’s trajectory. They talk about the RSF’s motives in fighting and what its leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemedti, hopes to gain from the war. They discuss the army’s weakness and increasing reliance on Islamist forces formerly associated with long-serving ruler Omar al-Bashir. They also examine the dearth of serious diplomacy aimed at ending the war. For more analysis on the war in Sudan, check out our Sudan page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Robert Blecher and Azmi Keshawi to discuss Israel’s assault on Gaza, the mood in Israel nearly a month after Hamas’s 7 October attacks and whether Israeli concerns about Hamas can be addressed without such devastation and civilian harm in Gaza. Richard first talks to Mairav and Robert about Israel’s operations thus far, whether its goals in Gaza are evolving and the nature of U.S. support. They discuss prospects for a ceasefire or at least a pause in fighting, perhaps in exchange for Hamas releasing ome hostages, and whether that could buy some space for diplomacy. Richard then talks to Azmi about life in Gaza under Israeli bombardment and short of basic necessities. For more analysis on the war in Gaza, check out our Israel/Palestine page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia Director Olga Oliker and U.S. Director Michael Hanna to discuss the war in Gaza, its implications for Ukraine and U.S. President Joe Biden’s efforts to navigate the crisis in the Middle East while supporting Ukraine’s defence against Russia. They first look at Ukraine’s fears that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could divert Western resources away from its fight against Russia’s invasion. They talk about U.S. attempts to get aid to both Israel and Ukraine despite a divided Congress. They look at how Russia views what is happening in the Middle East, whether a wider regional war may be in Moscow’s interest and how much sway it has in the region. They also talk about the impact of the Gaza war on the regional diplomacy underway before Hamas’s attacks, notably between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and efforts by the U.S. to encourage Saudi Arabia to normalise relations with Israel.For more analysis of the conflict in Israel-Palestine, you can check out our latest statement A Ceasefire in Gaza and our Israel/Palestine page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Topics discussed in this podcast include Biden's visit to Israel, Israel's potential ground invasion of Gaza, the devastating blast at al-Ahli Arab Hospital, escalating violence in the West Bank, the exchange of fire between Israeli army and Hizbollah, and the potential dangers in the Middle East region.