BMO Equity Research IN Tune

In this insightful discussion, Doug Porter, Chief Economist at BMO, shares his perspectives on GDP and inflation trends in the U.S. and Canada. Ernie Tedeschi, Yale’s Director of Economics, contrasts robust GDP growth with concerns about labor market dynamics and rising tariffs. Dan Phillips, BMO’s CIO, emphasizes a tactical investment approach amid evolving market risks, including the impact of AI and automation. The trio also explores the resilience of the Canadian economy and why government shutdowns typically leave markets unfazed.

This lively discussion dives into copper's surge back to $10k and the surprising resilience of iron ore. The impact of U.S. tariffs and the stockpiling rush are examined, shedding light on how supply disruptions have tightened markets. The hosts also explore the role of a weakening dollar and global investment challenges in mining. With an eye on China’s anti-involution policies, they ponder whether we’re on the brink of a new mining upcycle, fueled by governmental stockpiling and emerging market dynamics.

Helen Amos, a macro commodity analyst, and Matt Murphy, a base metals equity analyst, delve into the potential impact of a 50% U.S. tariff on copper. They discuss how this could affect global pricing dynamics and supply chains, with Helen predicting shifts in the COMEX-LME spread. Matt highlights which U.S. miners might benefit from a refining growth and the challenges of U.S. smelting capacity. The conversation also touches on the slow pace of building refining infrastructure and the implications for both domestic and international markets.

Scott Bryson, Vice Chair of BMO Wealth Management, and Michael Gregory, Deputy Chief Economist at BMO Financial Group, dive into Canada’s political and economic shifts after Mark Carney’s election as Prime Minister. They discuss how global trade dynamics and tariffs have shaped Canadian voter sentiment. The duo highlights Carney's ambitious vision for economic growth and energy supremacy, emphasizing the importance of streamlined infrastructure projects. They also outline the potential impacts of new policies on GDP growth and the Canadian oil and gas sector, marking a path toward energy leadership.

In a special episode of the Markets Plus podcast recorded on April 30, Camilla Sutton, Managing Director and Head of Equity Research, Canada & UK, BMO Capital Markets, moderates a timely and engaging discussion on the implications of the Canadian election. Joining her on the show: Hon. Brian Tobin, Vice Chair, BMO Financial Group and Hon. Jason Kenney, Senior Advisor, BMO Financial Group. Click here for transcript. ⁠⁠Click here for important disclosures⁠⁠.

On April 28, Canadians elected Members of Parliament to represent them in the House of Commons. The following day, BMO hosted a discussion to cover the economic, markets and tax policy implications. Click here for transcript. ⁠⁠Click here for important disclosures⁠⁠.

The ongoing uncertainty around U.S. tariffs on foreign goods is affecting business leaders across all industries. On April 17, BMO hosted a discussion to cover macroeconomic trends that are specifically impacting manufacturers with our economic and industry experts. (31 min) Click here for transcript. ⁠⁠Click here for important disclosures⁠⁠.

Kwasi Ampofo, Head of Metals and Mining at BloombergNEF, delves into the critical minerals sector, vital for energy transition and technology. He contrasts the negative sentiment in the U.S. EV market with China's strong growth. Discussing macro drivers, he notes how inflation and tariffs impact demand over the next few years. Ampofo also explores the challenges of building processing capacity in the West, the need for government incentives to de-risk mining projects, and key risks impacting the market in the coming months.

Rohitesh Dhawan, Chief Executive of the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM), discusses the critical role of the metals and mining industry in achieving sustainable development. He highlights the progress made on decarbonization and water management, while also addressing ongoing challenges like safety and human rights. Dhawan emphasizes the importance of a consolidated standard for responsible mining practices and the need for open dialogue to restore trust. He calls for collaboration among industry leaders, governments, and communities for a sustainable future.

Michael Gregory, Deputy Chief Economist and Head of US Economics, discusses how tariffs and the ongoing uncertainty around them impacts the outlook for the Canadian and U.S. economies; while Brian Belski, Chief Investment Strategist discusses his equity investment outlook for both Canada and the US. Click here for transcript.To access our full disclosures, please visit: https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosures