BMO Equity Research IN Tune Metal Matters: Delving Into the Macro
Nov 21, 2025
Doug Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets, provides keen insights into global economic dynamics. He discusses the imminent interest rate cuts and their implications for inflation. Porter reveals how emerging markets will drive metals demand and assesses the potential impact of AI on economic growth. He also evaluates de-dollarization, noting the dollar's lasting dominance despite challenges. Additionally, he highlights the complexities of trade policies and their unexpected winners and losers, particularly for Canada.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Dovish Fed Path Into 2026
- Doug Porter expects the Fed to cut in December and sees a dovish tilt into 2026 with about three more cuts next year.
- He cites likely Fed appointments and political pressure as reasons to be slightly more dovish than markets currently price.
Tariffs Haven't Fully Hit US Inflation
- Porter thinks tariff pass-through to US consumers has been limited and further pass-through depends on consumer strength.
- He expects inflation to stay sticky but modestly lower next year, not spike from tariffs.
Real Rates Likely To Stay Mildly Positive
- Porter expects mildly positive real rates in the US rather than a return to negative real rates.
- He sees terminal policy around modestly positive real rates, roughly a half percent above inflation.