BMO Equity Research IN Tune Sustainability Leaders: Critical Minerals Investment Outlook
Feb 26, 2025
Kwasi Ampofo, Head of Metals and Mining at BloombergNEF, delves into the critical minerals sector, vital for energy transition and technology. He contrasts the negative sentiment in the U.S. EV market with China's strong growth. Discussing macro drivers, he notes how inflation and tariffs impact demand over the next few years. Ampofo also explores the challenges of building processing capacity in the West, the need for government incentives to de-risk mining projects, and key risks impacting the market in the coming months.
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Regional EV Growth Divergence
- Electric vehicle growth is uneven across regions, with China and some emerging markets still expanding strongly while the U.S. outlook weakened after political changes.
- BloombergNEF's EV outlook shows regional divergence will shape critical minerals demand through 2040.
Macro Forces Will Cap Demand Growth
- Macro factors like global growth, inflation and interest rates will constrain critical minerals demand in the next 1–3 years.
- Policy shifts and commodity prices will further redirect demand and investment in specific metals and supply chains.
Plug-In Hybrids Help South Africa
- Plug-in hybrids delivered an unexpected boost to platinum demand and made South Africa a clear beneficiary.
- Kwasi highlights that PGM demand could double by the end of the decade from growing hybrid adoption.