BMO Equity Research IN Tune Metal Matters: Debating a New Up-Cycle
Sep 19, 2025
This lively discussion dives into copper's surge back to $10k and the surprising resilience of iron ore. The impact of U.S. tariffs and the stockpiling rush are examined, shedding light on how supply disruptions have tightened markets. The hosts also explore the role of a weakening dollar and global investment challenges in mining. With an eye on China’s anti-involution policies, they ponder whether we’re on the brink of a new mining upcycle, fueled by governmental stockpiling and emerging market dynamics.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Background Shapes Her Angle
- Helen Amos describes her background across sell-side commodity strategy and mining company roles to explain her perspective.
- She emphasizes interest in less-visible factors like scrap, grades, reserves, and China's role in prices.
Prices Defied Early Tariff Pessimism
- Metal prices have risen despite early-year tariff fears, with copper, aluminium and iron ore all up year-to-date.
- Precious metals outperformed strongly, while coal, zinc and nickel lagged.
Tariff Impact Has Been Delayed
- Tariffs raised costs but manufacturers partly absorbed them, while front‑running and rerouting softened immediate demand effects.
- Recent hard data now shows cracks in growth across US, Germany and China.