The Fourcast

For months after Vladimir Putin’s fullscale invasion of Ukraine, Western leaders predicted Russia’s economy was on the brink of collapse under sanctions - and yet it didn’t.It transformed into a wartime economy, fuelled by military production, redirected trade routes, and deeper ties with China and India.But now there are signs this may be changing - with industrial output slowing, inflation rising, and severe labour shortages as hundreds of thousands of working-age men have either died, emigrated or been mobilised.And Western leaders are once again questioning how long Putin can bankroll his war machine.So is Russia’s economy finally starting to buckle - or is this still wishful thinking from Ukraine’s allies?On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Arkady Ostrovsky, Russia editor at The Economist, and Elina Ribakova, one of the world’s leading experts on sanctions and Russian macro-economics.

As Rachel Reeves prepares to deliver the budget on Wednesday, she faces the political nightmare of having to come back for more tax, having said she wouldn't and she's already made it clear that whatever she does the burden will fall on all of us, not just the rich minority - but the left and the Greens are demanding a wealth tax, while the right and Reform are demanding welfare cuts and tax cuts.Voters are disillusioned, inflation is stubborn, services are still struggling and faith in the political centre is evaporating.So how does the chancellor land her budget without causing a political crisis for Labour or a financial crisis on the bond markets?On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan-Guru-Murthy was joined by Green Party leader Zack Polanski, Labour MP Rosie Wrighting, one of the new intake last year, and Rupert Harrison, a former advisor to George Osborne in the treasury and now at the US investment managers PIMCO.

With the budget just days away, Rachel Reeves is facing yet another black hole in the public finances - after ditching plans to raise income tax, it’s been widely reported that the government will go for a “smorgasboard” of tax rises and spending cuts to plug the gap, but critics on the left and right say it won’t address the deeper structural rot in Britain’s economy. So on this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by two economists with radically different visions for how to turn the country around. James Meadway, host of the Macrodose podcast and former economic adviser to John McDonnell, argues inequality is choking growth and that only a major reset of wealth, investment and a green industrial strategy can revive the UK. Catherine McBride served on the last government’s Trade and Agricultural Commission and she thinks the real problem is over-regulation, high taxes and net-zero. And Channel 4 News’ economics correspondent Helia Ebrahimi also joined the pod to cut through the political noise - and test whether any of their ideas actually add up.

US and Russian officials have drafted new proposals to end the Ukraine war but they would appear to require major concessions from President Zelenskyy over territory and weapons. Will they be acceptable to the Ukrainian President, and what about his forces fighting on the frontline? On this episode of the Fourcast, Matt Frei speaks to the award-winning filmmaker Mstyslav Chernov who has a new film just out that follows a brigade of soldiers as they attempt to liberate the village of Andriivka in the east of the country, the sort of place that would be included in the new Russian-controlled territory. 

The NHS is facing one of its deepest crises - a string of maternity scandals, from Shrewsbury to Nottingham, Oxford to Leeds. Hundreds of babies have died or been left severely injured in hospitals meant to keep them safe.So why does this keep happening? Is it about funding, training, or a system that protects itself instead of patients?On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru Murthy is joined by Jeremy Hunt MP, who was the Health Secretary between 2012 and 2018; Channel 4 News Health and Social Care Editor Victoria Macdonald who recently reported on a maternity scandal at Oxford University Hospitals. The Trust there has apologised to families and said it was committed to learning from mistakes; and Kayleigh Griffiths, whose daughter Pippa died in 2016 due to failings in care by the Shrewsbury and Telford Hospital NHS Trust. Her investigation alongside another bereaved mother Rhiannon Davies into failings at the Trust led to Jeremy Hunt commissioning the Ockenden Review into improving maternity services across the country.  Griffiths has also been critical of the health watchdog - the Care Quality Commission saying its oversight of maternity services was 'not fit for purpose.' The CQC said her complaints were being taken seriously and it was engaging with families directly.

Labour is facing an extraordinary rift at the top of government. Health Secretary Wes Streeting has strongly denied claims that he is plotting to overthrow Prime Minister Keir Starmer, saying that attacks are a sign of a toxic culture at Number 10. The story erupted after an anonymous briefing suggested Streeting could be preparing a leadership bid - a claim he has strongly rejected. But the row raises bigger questions: how loyal is the Cabinet? Who is really pulling the strings in No 10? And what does this internal drama mean for public trust and the Labour government’s ability to deliver?In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Labour strategist and commentator, John McTernan, who was Tony Blair's political director, the pollster and director of Merlin Strategy Scarlett McGuire and the author and Guardian columnist Zoe Williams.

The BBC is in meltdown: both the Director General Tim Davie and the Head of News Deborah Turness have quit in the same weekend after a leaked memo accused the corporation of systemic political bias - an edit of Donald Trump’s speech ahead of the January 6th riots at heart of the memo. The President has now piled in, threatening a billion dollar lawsuit.So what is really going on? Was this a right-wing coup against public service broadcasting - or the consequence of genuine bias inside the BBC?And could this crisis now reshape the future of impartial news - not just at the BBC, but across Britain’s media?The BBC chairman Samir Shah has apologised for an “error of judgement” over the edit of the president’s speech and said that the corporation had taken action on other areas that had been highlighted in the memo - and would take further action if necessary.  On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by the political editor of the Sunday Telegraph Camilla Turner and the editor of Prospect magazine Alan Rusbridger.

While COP30 gets underway in Brazil - Donald Trump is ripping up climate policy, blasting his allies for falling for what he calls the ‘world's greatest con job’ and trying to get big business to follow his lead - and yet in New York, Zohran Mamdani - a left-wing populist unafraid to tout a green agenda - has just won the mayoral race and in the UK, the Green Party has surged under Zack Polanski.So is the direction of travel really a climate rollback - or is a new left preparing to claim power and reclaim the climate argument? With me, from the COP in Belém, is our Chief Correspondent Alex Thomson - and in London, the financial journalist and author Andrew Ross Sorkin, whose new book 1929 investigates the Wall Street crash.

After months of a “vicious cycle of mutual retaliation”, as Xi Jinping has put it, Donald Trump and China's president seem to have come to a truce after their first meeting in nearly six years.Meeting in South Korea, Xi agreed to stop withholding China’s rare earth exports for a year and start buying soy beans from America again. While Trump said he would reduce tariffs and suspend port fees on Chinese ships.But how long will this amicable relationship last? Will all of this signal a closer tie between the world’s two biggest economies?On this episode of the Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Victor Gao, vice president of the Centre for China and Globalization in Beijing, and Dr Yu Jie, senior research fellow on China at Chatham House.

Is Keir Starmer’s immigration strategy doomed to fail? Despite tough language, a one-in-one-out returns scheme with France and speeding up the closure of asylum hotels,  Labour continues to plummet in the polls. So, why is it going so badly? Has Keir Starmer, as some of his critics say, just been playing into Nigel Farage’s hands by elevating the issue, or will it work out in the long run? To discuss all this and more on the latest episode of The Fourcast, Jackie Long is joined by Channel 4 News Communities Editor Darshna Soni - who’s just been to France to meet asylum seekers sent back under the government’s new deal and from Westminster by Channel 4 News Political Editor Gary Gibbon.