The Fourcast Former CIA analyst: Trump likely to attack Iran
Jan 30, 2026
David McCloskey, a former CIA analyst who covered Syria, Iraq and Iran and now writes espionage novels, breaks down looming US moves toward Iran. He discusses naval deployments, the challenge of predicting Trump, how Israel and allies penetrate Iranian targets, and what precision strikes or asymmetric Iranian responses might look like.
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Unpredictability Of Trump's Decision Making
- Donald Trump's decisions are uniquely hard to predict compared with foreign leaders.
- David McCloskey says U.S. analysts struggle to understand "what's going on between Donald Trump's ears."
Iran's Difficult Intelligence Environment
- Iran is an extremely high counterintelligence environment and hard to penetrate.
- McCloskey notes Israeli and allied services have nonetheless achieved deep operational access inside Iran.
Israeli Operation Lured Iranian Officials
- The Israelis built pattern-of-life data and coaxed senior Iranian officials into a meeting that was then destroyed.
- McCloskey describes that operation as astounding evidence of penetration.
