The Fourcast

Starmer Xi meeting: is Trump making China great again?

Jan 29, 2026
Nathalie Tocci, European policy expert focused on Europe-China ties. Amitav Acharya, scholar of Asian diplomacy and global governance. Robert Kagan, American foreign‑policy commentator on great‑power politics. They discuss Starmer’s Beijing visit and whether Western allies are shifting away from the US, Trump’s impact on China’s opportunities, and what a more multipolar world means for Europe’s choices and defence.
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INSIGHT

Trump Creates Openings For China

  • Donald Trump’s actions open diplomatic and economic opportunities for China by unsettling traditional alliances.
  • Robert Kagan warns China may benefit but must still prove it can capitalize on the opening.
INSIGHT

Multipolarity Raises Conflict Risk

  • A return to the pre-1945 multipolar scramble would bring shifting alliances and greater war risk.
  • Robert Kagan argues that without U.S. enforcement, access to markets and security guarantees become unstable.
INSIGHT

Multiplex Order Not Simple Multipolarity

  • The emerging order is better described as a 'multiplex' because power, technology and new trade links interact.
  • Amitav Acharya stresses interdependence remains and some elements of the old order persist.
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