The Fourcast Greenland: Will Europe use trade bazookas against Trump?
Jan 19, 2026
Mark Leonard, Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, and Helia Ebrahimi, an Economics correspondent, dive into the geopolitical implications of Trump's Greenland ambitions. They discuss potential EU responses, including the 'trade bazooka' to counter economic coercion. Leonard highlights the necessity for Europe to balance short-term dependencies against long-term strategies. Ebrahimi warns of the economic fallout for consumers from tariffs and stresses the importance of measured retaliation to avoid escalation.
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Transatlantic Crisis Over Greenland
- Mark Leonard says this is the biggest crisis in transatlantic relations since Suez and Europeans are in crisis mode over Greenland.
- He warns that allowing territorial coercion by a great power sets a dangerous precedent for border changes elsewhere.
EU's Trade 'Bazooka' Explained
- Helia Ebrahimi explains the EU's anti-coercion instrument (ACI) can target financial and tech access to pressure the US.
- She warns deploying it could also derail the global economy given interlinked markets.
Use Targeted Counters, Not Broad Tariffs
- Mark Leonard argues Europe should use targeted measures like the ACI to raise costs for coercive behaviour without hurting consumers.
- He recommends hitting sensitive US-linked companies to make threats credible while minimising harm to European consumers.