Bet The Process

Kris Abdelmessih, an experienced quantitative trader and former SIG trader, shares stories from trading floors and market making. He discusses the evolution of trading firms, maintaining debate-driven cultures while scaling, sizing as risk control, prediction markets versus sportsbooks, phantom liquidity and adverse selection, and real-life market anecdotes.

Adam Levitan, co-founder of Establish The Run, dives into the evolution of sports betting from DFS origins to predictive analytics. He shares insights on how legalization has redefined demand and betting strategies. Adam emphasizes the significance of current game context and unique modeling approaches in gaining an edge, rather than just relying on math. They also analyze the Rams' recent struggles, propose player props, and discuss the Broncos' quarterback situation, revealing the intricacies of betting in a changing landscape.

In this engaging conversation, NFL data analyst Kevin Cole, known for his insightful Unexpected Points newsletter, breaks down the latest playoff action. He discusses whether coaching impacts outcomes more than variance, highlighting key matchups and team dynamics. Kevin dives into CJ Stroud’s performance and evaluates the implications of playoff byes on team success. He also rates Josh Allen as a leading quarterback, while critiquing strategies for teams like the Steelers and Patriots. Tune in for sharp betting insights and strategic game analysis!

Judah Fortgang, a sports analyst and Substack writer specializing in NFL strategy, dives deep into the intricacies of Wild Card Weekend matchups. He discusses the impact of quarterback performance and defenses, revealing a shift in trends for playoff teams. Judah breaks down key games, such as the Rams’ offensive efficiency and the Jaguars' transformation under pressure. He highlights the weather's effect on the Packers vs. Bears, all while naming the Jaguars as a top futures pick, making for an insightful and engaging analysis.

This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus bring on old friend Preston Johnson, the Sports Cheetah, and discuss Crawley Town FC, Preston's journey away from sports gambling, and some college football playoff predictions.

This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus answer questions from listeners, with topics including their first times meeting Tony Kornheiser, betting second halves, and reflections on happiness and fulfillment.

This week on Bet the Process, creator and host of the Risk of Ruin podcast John Reeder joins and discusses his journey into advantage play, his analysis of Long-Term Capital Management's failure and the broader implications for modern Wall Street, and reflects on teaching probabilistic thinking to children.

This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus welcome one of the biggest bettors on Polymarket and recent 60 Minutes interviewee Domer, to share his journey from poker to prediction markets, as well as his strategies and the importance of self-education and taking a balanced approach.

This week on Bet the Process, Tulane professor and sports consultant Gabe Feldman joins to discuss the current state of college sports law, including new regulations around athlete compensation, and the legal status and regulatory challenges around sports betting and prediction markets. Rufus also continues the college football heater and gives more picks.

This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus go guest-less and discuss prediction markets, NCAA rule changes, and more college football heater picks.