Bet The Process Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points Talks NFL Playoffs
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Jan 13, 2026 In this engaging conversation, NFL data analyst Kevin Cole, known for his insightful Unexpected Points newsletter, breaks down the latest playoff action. He discusses whether coaching impacts outcomes more than variance, highlighting key matchups and team dynamics. Kevin dives into CJ Stroud’s performance and evaluates the implications of playoff byes on team success. He also rates Josh Allen as a leading quarterback, while critiquing strategies for teams like the Steelers and Patriots. Tune in for sharp betting insights and strategic game analysis!
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A Bad Weekend Despite Good Process
- Jeff Ma recounts a rough NFL weekend where his well-reasoned bets lost despite good closing-line value.
- He uses the story to illustrate why process matters over individual outcomes.
Don't Hedge Without Positive EV
- Don't hedge bets unless you find a positive expected value after accounting for vig and price movement.
- Rufus and Jeff repeatedly recommend sticking to edges and avoiding emotional hedging.
Measure Betting By Closing Line Value
- Evaluate your betting by process and closing-line value rather than short-term wins and losses.
- Jeff Ma emphasizes CLV as the key metric for assessing a sustainable betting process.