Bet The Process Adam Levitan of Establish The Run
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Jan 22, 2026 Adam Levitan, co-founder of Establish The Run, dives into the evolution of sports betting from DFS origins to predictive analytics. He shares insights on how legalization has redefined demand and betting strategies. Adam emphasizes the significance of current game context and unique modeling approaches in gaining an edge, rather than just relying on math. They also analyze the Rams' recent struggles, propose player props, and discuss the Broncos' quarterback situation, revealing the intricacies of betting in a changing landscape.
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DFS Roots And The Pivot To Betting
- Establish The Run began as DFS-focused player projections and pivoted as legal sports betting demand grew.
- Adam Levitan says flexibility to pivot is vital for predictive analytics businesses.
Projections Can Move Markets
- Market influence is real: Adam's NBA numbers move lines quickly after 5pm releases.
- He notes NFL markets are more liquid and harder to shift due to many participants.
Quit And Reevaluate Weekly
- If a projection service feels stale or unprofitable, stop using it and return weekly.
- Levitan recommends treating forecasts on a week-to-week basis and quitting when they stop working.