Bet The Process NFL Wildcard Weekend with Judah Fortgang | Sponsored by Novig
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Jan 7, 2026 Judah Fortgang, a sports analyst and Substack writer specializing in NFL strategy, dives deep into the intricacies of Wild Card Weekend matchups. He discusses the impact of quarterback performance and defenses, revealing a shift in trends for playoff teams. Judah breaks down key games, such as the Rams’ offensive efficiency and the Jaguars' transformation under pressure. He highlights the weather's effect on the Packers vs. Bears, all while naming the Jaguars as a top futures pick, making for an insightful and engaging analysis.
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Playoffs Look Exceptionally Open
- The 2024 NFL playoffs feel unusually wide open with many road favorites and parity across teams.
- Judah Fortgang attributes this to randomness and shifting quarterback and defensive trends, not a single structural change.
End-Of-Half Strategy Has Shifted
- Teams now run far more at the end of halves, reducing late passing yards and two-minute drill production.
- Judah links this to kickoff changes, game-state optimization, and defenses aiming to limit explosive plays.
Rams' Second-Half Defensive Slide
- The Rams' defense weakened in the second half, shown by a drop in 'perfect coverage' rates.
- Carolina lacks the scheme to fully exploit that weakness, making the spread reasonable.