Street Signals

The 2024 US election cycle has begun in earnest, with next week's Super Tuesday primaries likely to solidify Joe Biden and Donald Trump as their respective parties' nominees for President. Elliot Hentov from State Street Global Advisors rejoins the podcast, cutting through the hype cycle to offer a more informed read of polling, the likely balance of power and possibility in the outcomes across executive and legislative elections and the exogenous events that could influence the process along the way. The traditional cyclical implications of election season, as well as the stark differences between presidential and party platforms, carry meaningful implications for equities, fixed income and the dollar.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Preston Mui, a senior economist at Employ America, joins us this week, to dive into the improving trend in US productivity growth. Drawing on a recent paper highlighting parallels to the 1990s productivity boom, Mui emphasizes that whether we witness another boom in productivity hinges not on fate, but on policy decisions. He underscores the importance of tight labor markets, robust investment, and a stable supply of essentials to keep inflation at bay in nurturing productivity.  Preston's paper, The Dream of the 90s is Alive in 2024, is used as source material for the discussion and is well worth your time.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In a fascinating conversation, experienced economist and trader Mark Dow discusses the evolution of behavioral approaches in investing, misconceptions surrounding monetary policy and wealth creation, the factors that distort yield curve signals, and a bullish view on home builders and agency mortgage rates.

The technology sector has no shortage of positives backing it and the applications of artificial intelligence across tech and other sectors present us with mind-boggling possibilities. But questions of valuation and concentration risk arise given how positive the consensus has become. It takes two strategists to help us sort it out, with Anthi Tsouvali from State Street Global Markets and Rebecca Chesworth from State Street Global Advisors joining us this week, to discuss the strengths and potential vulnerabilities within the tech sector, and the seemingly limitless opportunities afforded to all of us by artificial intelligence.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The podcast discusses potential surprises in the market for 2024. Topics include the probability of a US recession, drivers of a recession, the reliability of yield curves as indicators, easing policy to prevent tightening, valuation of the yen, and institutional response to market conditions.

The first few weeks of 2024 see interest rate markets in flux, assessing and re-assessing the extent of forthcoming policy easing cycles from the world's major central banks. Crucial to the outlook for rates is the likelihood of each achieving the hallowed soft landing - a normalization of inflation with minimal hiccups from a weaker labor market or below trend growth. Some economies stand a better chance than others achieving this outcome. In this context, Simona Mocuta, chief economist for State Street Global Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss where that potential most likely lies.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Volatility has been subdued to start the year, but geopolitical risks are on the rise. We have yet to see the turmoil and unrest in the news have any strong effects on markets, yet it has the feel of calm before a potential storm. Elections in Taiwan, recurrence of violence in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine all carry implications for great power competition as well as economies and asset markets. The US election season, kicking off earlier this week in Iowa, should do the same. Mark Rosenberg, co-founder and CEO of GeoQuant, is back with us to make sense of it all.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Street Signals returns from a brief winter hibernation, with the first two weeks of the New Year offering plenty of food for thought. Dan Gerard is back with us to discuss how the consensus views formed at the end of 2023 are already being challenged and we focus on what stands out as most relevant from our own research and indicators to help contribute to this discussion. So far, the trends of late last year are still intact, but new wrinkles to challenge their continuation are emerging.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this podcast, the hosts discuss their favorite reads of 2023, including books on the changing world order, empires, women's equity, demographic shifts, inequality, and historical fiction. They provide book recommendations ranging from dark comedy to thrilling plots, and conclude the episode with gratitude and information about their web portal and research.

Following on the heels of our top trades in equities, rates and FX, this week Street Signals brings a broader discussion of the biggest questions for financial markets in the coming months. Is global growth set to slow dramatically or are expectations now too low? What does that mean for risk markets? Will geopolitics have a greater influence in 2024 than they did this year? Dwyfor Evans, Lee Ferridge and Marija Veitmane join the podcast to talk things through.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.