Street Signals

The host discusses the outlook for macro and markets into 2024, including the increasing probability of a US recession and investors' shift to a more cautious approach. It explores the impact of falling inflation on investor behavior, the appeal of safe haven fixed income, and the potential outlook for currencies and equity markets. The chapter also includes a sponsor ad from State Street Bank and Trust Company.

Stock market outlook for year end, vulnerable corners of the market, safety and growth opportunities, impact of high interest rates on equities, shifts in asset allocation, outlook for industrials, financials, and technology sectors, bearish outlook on stock market and preference for tech sector

It's a question increasingly asked in market discussions, especially since the brief period of deficit drama in the UK last year - is the weight of sovereign debt too much for investors to bear? And, if not yet, is there a level of yields at which debt spirals become more likely? Marvin Loh, senior strategist on our team in the US, is back to discuss those questions, as well as to provide guidance on what to expect ahead of an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets often struggle to discount geopolitical risk and the response to the extreme violence in the Middle East last week and subsequent escalation of rhetoric seems to be no exception. Relatively benign movements in energy and capital markets thus far perhaps betray a complacency that our guest this week, Elliot Hentov from State Street Global Advisors, believes could be tested. Fragmentation globally and within the US political system make this a particularly fraught period as we look to assess the short- and long-term ramifications of yet another geopolitical flashpoint.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Exploring the factors influencing bond market movements, historic parallels to the 1987 crash, stock-bond correlations and diversification, the stability of inflation expectations, and the value of bond yields and macroeconomics.

The podcast discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's message on markets and the strengthening of the dollar. They explore the potential problems for riskier currencies and economies. The head of Trading for the Americas shares insights on FX trading dynamics and the current state of US data. They also discuss the potential impact of a hawkish stance on risk and volatility, favorite trades, and promote their podcast Street Sequels.

Asia and China specifically have undergone a significant reassessment of expectations in 2023 - from the consensus, re-opening led optimism at the start of the year to facing the realities of sluggish demand and a weaker trade environment. Now, rising oil prices and a stronger dollar threaten this already fragile mix and, this week, Ben Luk from our Emerging Markets strategy team helps us to disentangle which of these risks remain relevant, versus those where the worst news is likely priced in.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

More central banks are sounding like they want to pause and take a break from fighting inflation, to assess how their efforts play out after some tentative, initial success. Our metrics from PriceStats have proven valuable in assessing this progress and Alberto Cavallo, co-founder of PriceStats and a professor at Harvard Business School, is back with us this week to talk it through. He has an update on whether the trend breaks towards disinflation that we saw across many economies earlier this year have extended over the summer, or if its time to start worrying about prices picking back up again more broadly as oil prices jump.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's rare to find someone who can speak with expertise on one topic let alone three or four, but we're lucky enough to have Ramu Thiagarajan, Senior Investment Advisor for State Street, to do just that. Ramu and colleagues have published a recent paper on the prospects for de-dollarization, a topic of great interest in both markets and geopolitics that we discuss this week. But equally interesting and important is the expansive background from which Ramu works, marrying academic finance with real-world practice in building his multi-asset outlook, a process we detail in building up to his recent work.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A soft landing for the US and possibly the global economy looks achievable, but is it desirable? In the short-run, surely, yes. But in the long-run? Dan Gerard joins us this week to walk through a potential second order risk of complacency on inflation that such an outcome might catalyze, particularly if global labor markets do not loosen further. For investors, this does not mean a rerun of 2022 - thank goodness for that! We complete the discussion with portfolio implications over the remainder of this year.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.