In this podcast, the discussion revolves around the search for safe havens in the midst of market volatility. Topics include the effectiveness of traditional safe havens, the challenges of selecting a suitable safe haven, the performance of US Treasuries, the dollar, and yen, and insights on which assets are currently appealing. Guest expert Fred Goodwin provides valuable insights on safe haven currencies and the intricacies of navigating safe assets.
Investors are questioning the effectiveness of traditional safe havens like treasuries due to recent volatility episodes.
The US dollar's status as a safe haven is being scrutinized amidst concerns of economic confidence and valuation.
Deep dives
Key Points on Safe Haven Assets Definition
Safe haven assets are typically financial instruments expected to retain or increase in value during economic downturns, being uncorrelated or negatively correlated with risky assets. Despite the traditional perception of treasuries as safe havens, their performance during recent volatility episodes raised questions due to factors like inflation and interest rates.
Gold's Unique Safe Haven Appeal
Gold, traditionally seen as a safe haven asset, deviated from its usual real yield correlation but saw increased demand post-Ukraine invasion. With central banks, including China and Russia, actively buying gold, its safe haven characteristics remain intact.
Challenges to Dollar's Safe Haven Status
The US dollar, often deemed a safe haven, faces scrutiny due to potential loss of confidence in the US economy and rich valuation. Shifts in investment behavior, especially out of tech stocks, could impact the dollar's performance in risk-off situations.
April brought a reality check to markets after a stellar Q1, sparking demand for safety across assets and currencies. The higher for longer rate environment, together with signs of slowing growth and sticky inflation, gives rise to thoughts of future weakness in risk assets. Naturally, investors begin to question where best to take shelter. Are traditional safe havens as effective as they have been in past cycles? How do US Treasuries, the dollar and yen, long the stalwarts of safety, stack up? This week, Fred Goodwin returns to the podcast to discuss the challenges of selecting a suitable safe haven, the intricacies of safe haven currencies and which assets are most appealing to him right now.