Street Signals

Just when inflation was within striking distance of the Federal Reserves monetary policy target of 2%, allowing them to begin cutting rates last year, tariffs as a forceful policy choice of the US administration. Higher import duties have disrupted plans to ease rates and extend the soft landing of the US economy further. Tariffs also now appear to have introduced high uncertainty in the US labor market and the staffing plans of corporations, creating a potential demand-side dampening of any inflation that tariffs and still-constrained labor supply might create. Which way do we head from here? Michael Metcalfe, Global Head of Macro Strategy at State Street Markets, joins the podcast once more with his read of what faster-moving, alternative measures of data are suggesting.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Street Signals has had its mini-hiatus and is now back for most of the rest of the summer. This week, host Tim Graf walks through the big questions hanging over markets, some of which will need to be considered in the coming weeks, before the flip flops are put back in the closet and trading desks are back to fully staffed. We ponder what's next for equity markets, whether we'll actually start to soon see strong tariff-fueled inflation and whether the US dollar is at another inflection point after a healthy first half correction.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The period following the Second World War is often referred to as the American Century, when the rise of the United States to global hegemon accelerated and solidified. Those who take an interest in the global political economy are starting to wonder if that era is coming to a close. But the volatility of US policy in recent years, as much as it has given rise to questions over whether this period of American exceptionalism is at an end, also carries with it many elements which could herald its continuation. Marvin Barth, founder and author of Thematic Markets, an independent research effort focused on long-term trends and themes, joins the podcast to pore over the most critical questions facing the United States and what the answers mean for its place in the world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The calm after the storm of April's volatility has been maintained, despite a massive fiscal expansion passing through Congress and being signed by the President, and the end of the deferral period for most of the tariffs initially announced at the start of Q2. As we await the economic impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill and the onset of significantly higher tariffs on most of the US' trading partners, Noel Dixon, a senior macro strategist on the team at State Street Markets, returns to the podcast to provide an independent outlook on the boosts and drags from policy and how damaging any economic costs might be in future electoral cycles.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this 100th episode of Street Signals, a theme ever-present throughout its two-year history comes to the fore once again: the ability of financial markets to come to grips with and move past seemingly implacable uncertainty. Q2 2025 alone provided what felt like a decade's worth of seismic and (theoretically) negative shocks to sentiment, yet equity markets have recovered quickly and are poised to push to new all-time highs, while many traditional safe haven currencies are on the back foot. This week, Peter Vincent, head of FX trading in EMEA for State Street Markets and a podcast regular, returns to offer his thinking on why markets remain so resilient in the face of such risks, whether the US growth outlook is poised to deteriorate and his outlook for currencies in the coming months.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets are still grappling with global trade and fiscal policies in flux and we were reminded this week that geopolitical risk is never out of the frame for too long. The broadening of hostilities in Israel and Iran necessarily extends the vigilance of policymakers for first and second order impacts on their economies, carrying with it potential implications for currency and interest rate markets, in particular. This week, we look at how all-important reserve managers and governments in Asia are considering all of these threats to stability and how currency and monetary policies are likely to adapt. We bring Dwyfor Evans, our head of macro strategy for Asia, back to the podcast for a broad discussion of the most relevant considerations.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Coming to you from our London Research Retreat, this week's episode of Street Signals explores the ongoing fragmentation in the global political economy and its implications for asset managers and asset owners. In a panel discussion with host Tim Graf, guests Elliot Hentov, head of macro policy research at State Street Global Advisors, and Ramu Thiagarajan, head of Thought Leadership at State Street, discuss how traditional correlation structures are breaking down, drawing parallels to the macro environment of the 1980s and 1990s. Key topics include the reassessment of equity risk premia, whether allocations to fixed income require a re-think and how relevant questions of increased heading of dollar-denominated assets remain after a tumultuous start to the year.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Quantified measures of US trade and economic policy uncertainty are no longer at all-time highs, yet the global growth outlook for the rest of 2025 can still only be judged through a glass darkly.  Indigestion of expanded supply in global fixed income markets similarly clouds the appeal of risky assets. Which makes the resilience of equity markets, and particularly the reversal in US stocks back towards all-time highs, all the more impressive. Marija Veitmane, our global head of equity strategy, joins the podcast to discuss whether a resumption of the strength of recent years is coming, whether equities now merit inclusion in the pantheon of safer assets and to what degree institutional investor preferences are behind one of the more remarkable buys of the dip in recent decades.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Craig Fuller, CEO and founder of FreightWaves, shares his expertise on the chaotic world of global supply chains. He discusses the overwhelming challenges posed by fluctuating tariffs and trade relations. The conversation highlights the impact of recent geopolitical events on reshoring and labor costs, along with insights into the complexities of U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade dynamics. Fuller also emphasizes the crucial role of real-time data analytics in navigating the fragmented logistics market, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Robin Tsui, APAC Gold Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, joins the podcast to break down what’s driving the surge in demand for gold over the past three years. From inflation fears to geopolitical risk, gold has reclaimed its shine as both a safe haven and strategic asset. Robin explains how central bank buying, ETF flows, and shifting investor sentiment are shaping the gold market—and what it could mean for the rest of 2025. Whether you’re a bullion believer or a curious skeptic, this is your inside look at the forces behind the precious metal's golden moment.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.