Street Signals

A stand-out macro trend of 2025, the weakness of the US dollar remains a focal point for a market that is still heavily short. Is the consensus risk ripe for a surprise or are further headwinds in store for the world's most widely traded currency? And how might macroeconomic developments in Japan, Europe and the UK add to or detract from the appeal for dollars? This week, we discuss these factors and the broader FX landscape for developed markets, with Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas at State Street Markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investors tend to underestimate the probability of tail risk events and assume market correlations will be stable. These are well-understood yet persistent blind spots that damage long-term portfolio performance. This week, we talk to David Dredge, CIO of Convex Strategies, as he shares his experiences and perspectives on the importance of overcoming these biases and incorporating convexity exposure, towards building greater resilience, maximizing compounding effects in return streams and optimizing for actual, rather than historic, returns.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Growth stocks are driving returns and economic dynamism, but also sparking discussions of whether we sit in bubble territory. Our guest this week, Matt Smith, portfolio manager at QSM Asset Management, a long/short hedge fund with a value focus, provides a timely reminder of how a consistent, fundamental-oriented approach can still offer compelling risk-adjusted returns. We also walk through current equity markets and how modest pullbacks in the AI trade could pose economic problems.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Join Michael Metcalfe, global head of macro strategy, and Alberto Cavallo, founding partner of PriceStats and Harvard affiliate, as they explore the impacts of a US government shutdown on the economy. They discuss how alternative data can fill gaps left by delayed public statistics. Cavallo explains PriceStats' daily inflation tracking, revealing modest CPI rises and seasonal risks, while Metcalfe contextualizes inflation trends and labor market indicators. Together, they highlight the importance of innovative data strategies for better economic insights.

Drawing on decades of experience as a policymaker, investor and trader, Mark Dow joins us this week, as we thread the currents driving the global macroeconomy together into a cohesive whole. From tariffs, inflation, US labor supply issues and Fed independence, to gold, the dollar, debt and deficits, with a side trip to Argentina in between, few stones are left unturned in this macro masterclass.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Data drives decisions big and small, but a steady and worrying trend of deteriorating quality in public economic data adds an under-appreciated complexity to the choices made by central bankers and finance ministry officials. Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Investment Management, joins us to discuss how and why this problem has become so acute in recent years, how private data sources can both help and hinder policymakers, and what improvements are necessary. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our title is the most-often asked question of recent weeks, with equity markets making new all-time highs and inflows continuing, despite an overwhelmingly consensus belief that they are also overvalued. However, this seeming paradox can persist, as Dan Gerard, senior multi-asset strategist for State Street Markets, highlights. We delve into the earnings power of the companies driving equity market returns, whether this will ever be a stockpickers market and what role the Federal Reserve is poised to play in the investing decisions driving headlines as Q3 draws to a close.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The British pound and gilts already face heavy scrutiny from markets, ahead of what could be a politically defining budget process for the UK Labour Party later this Autumn. As our guest this week details, a politically possible outcome that also keeps bond markets happy looks very difficult to achieve, potentially setting up for a period of volatility for UK assets and sterling. Helen Thomas, CEO of BlondeMoney, is back on the podcast to walk through the constraints on the government imposed both by markets and internal party politics, and where she sees points of vulnerability in each.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Summer is giving way to autumn and risk markets see few signs of a fall. Its not for lack of potential threats. Questions of Fed independence swirl and the US economy offers in equal parts the potential to either slow sharply or re-accelerate and threaten hopes for easier policy. The path of inflation is still an open question. Emerging threats to fiscal and political stability in Europe and the UK are once again on the markets mind. But none of these risks seem to demand higher risk premia, at least not yet. This week, Dan Mazza, State Street Markets head of FX forwards trading in the US, rejoins the podcast to discuss how and whether the calm can continue.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The investing world awaits the message from the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium this weekend. As an event, historically it can often disappoint those looking for answers. Expectations for clear guidance on near-term Fed policy seem low this year. Chairman Jay Powell regularly reminds markets (and politicians) that the two elements of the central banks mandate are now in conflict. Trade tariffs are likely to boost inflation for a while longer and have delayed a more aggressive easing cycle. Yet the US labor market looks more vulnerable than at any time since the pandemic. So a thoughtful idea of what to expect is in demand and our guiding voice on the Fed, Marvin Loh, a senior macro strategist on our US team, rejoins the podcast with what to expect from policymakers this week, and beyond.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.