Street Signals

Quantified measures of US trade and economic policy uncertainty are no longer at all-time highs, yet the global growth outlook for the rest of 2025 can still only be judged through a glass darkly.  Indigestion of expanded supply in global fixed income markets similarly clouds the appeal of risky assets. Which makes the resilience of equity markets, and particularly the reversal in US stocks back towards all-time highs, all the more impressive. Marija Veitmane, our global head of equity strategy, joins the podcast to discuss whether a resumption of the strength of recent years is coming, whether equities now merit inclusion in the pantheon of safer assets and to what degree institutional investor preferences are behind one of the more remarkable buys of the dip in recent decades.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Craig Fuller, CEO and founder of FreightWaves, shares his expertise on the chaotic world of global supply chains. He discusses the overwhelming challenges posed by fluctuating tariffs and trade relations. The conversation highlights the impact of recent geopolitical events on reshoring and labor costs, along with insights into the complexities of U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade dynamics. Fuller also emphasizes the crucial role of real-time data analytics in navigating the fragmented logistics market, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Robin Tsui, APAC Gold Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, joins the podcast to break down what’s driving the surge in demand for gold over the past three years. From inflation fears to geopolitical risk, gold has reclaimed its shine as both a safe haven and strategic asset. Robin explains how central bank buying, ETF flows, and shifting investor sentiment are shaping the gold market—and what it could mean for the rest of 2025. Whether you’re a bullion believer or a curious skeptic, this is your inside look at the forces behind the precious metal's golden moment.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, we take Street Signals on the road. As we travel through four countries in the Middle East, Dale Haver, Global Head of FX Sales at State Street Markets, joins us for a quick but expansive chat on FX markets past and present. We talk through the most impactful evolutions in the client experience over a long career in currencies, as well as what's on the horizon. Current markets are never far from our minds though - especially given a certain US President seems to be following us around the region while we're here. A discussion of where the risk cycle goes next and how to the think about US dollar risk provide a fitting conclusion given events on the ground.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After an episode of extreme, headline-driven volatility in April, financial markets have shifted to docility in May. Position risks in equity and FX markets are now much reduced and, absent further clarity on US trade and fiscal policies, a wait-and-see approach is the order of the day. Fatigue has set in and, as our guest this week, Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas at State Street Markets, notes, high conviction views are in short supply. This week, we think about how to navigate the onset of summer and whether the ennui of recent weeks makes it a time to 'sell in May and go away', as the old trading adage goes. Or, if just the 'go away' part will suffice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Underperformance of US Treasuries and the dollar during recent market turmoil begs the question of whether the safe haven status of the US, long taken for granted, will be as easily conferred in future times of trouble. Following the imposition of larger than expected tariffs on US trade partners, It served as a warning that US assets and the currency might require higher risk premia than previously appreciated. Mark Rosenberg, in his capacity as co-founder and CEO of GeoQuant, has considered and articulated exactly these risks as part of his work over recent years. He joins the podcast to discuss the trends in US political risk and the strength of its institutions, translating how they compare to other developed and emerging economies and whether further accounting for these risks in market pricing is warranted.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As financial markets continue to adjust for the ramifications of a global reordering of trade relationships, the first evidence of the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is starting to emerge. Drawing on work that offers an almost real-time monitor of online goods prices, Professor Alberto Cavallo from Harvard Business School and co-founder of PriceStats is back on the podcast to discuss his work in measuring inflation trends past and present. Alberto and his colleagues have already written new, ground-breaking research into the effects that the Liberation Day tariffs are having on retail prices and he offers helpful context in how to understand better the timing and scale of the inflation trends that look most likely to emerge in their wake.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Market volatility is subsiding but risk managers are still determining whether the recent, sharp moves and unusual correlation dynamics in stocks, bonds and currencies have run their course, or if they were preludes to upsets to come. The trade discussion is sure to roll on for the next several months and fiscal policy dynamics are likely to evolve in ways markets must consider. The key question is whether the repricing thus far across assets is sufficient. This week, Street Signals changes its format to discuss these questions, as a roundtable of three senior members of the Macro Strategy Team talk about their current thinking and how outlooks have changed. Dan Gerard and Marvin Loh join from the team in Boston and your host, Tim Graf, sheds his usual agnostic stance in adding to the debate.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Having underestimated the breadth and size of trade barriers imposed by the United States on all its trading partners, markets continue to come to grips with the short and long term implications across assets, while economists and observers try to wrap their heads around what the global trading system, with the US dollar sitting at its center, will look like in the coming months and years. Elliot Hentov, Head of Macro Policy Research at State Street Global Advisors joins the podcast this week, offering a robust framework for assessing the negotiability and sustainability of tariffs, as well as the long-term implications for asset and FX markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

By the end of today, economists and financial market participants are hoping to be in a better position to understand and assess the impact of proposed tariffs on the United States’ largest trading partners. Of course, if the last three months are any guide, all such news on trade is subject to negotiation and compromise. Having had to deal with a barrage of ever-evolving headlines since the start of 2025, Dan Mazza, head of FX Forwards trading in the Americas, joins the podcast, to discuss how the market-making function has evolved in response, whether and where it makes sense to position for further trade-related disruption in FX and interest rate markets and how long-lasting he expects the effects of protectionism to last as a meaningful market driver.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.