Street Signals Shutdown Economics
Oct 9, 2025
Join Michael Metcalfe, global head of macro strategy, and Alberto Cavallo, founding partner of PriceStats and Harvard affiliate, as they explore the impacts of a US government shutdown on the economy. They discuss how alternative data can fill gaps left by delayed public statistics. Cavallo explains PriceStats' daily inflation tracking, revealing modest CPI rises and seasonal risks, while Metcalfe contextualizes inflation trends and labor market indicators. Together, they highlight the importance of innovative data strategies for better economic insights.
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Shutdown Hits Households First
- The shutdown mainly hurts furloughed individuals immediately, with broader GDP impact modest per week (~10 bps annualized).
- Markets are less worried short-term, but household payment cycles will increase political pressure as paychecks are missed.
High-Frequency Independent Inflation
- PriceStats provides daily, high-frequency inflation measures with only a three-day lag for over 25 countries.
- That independent, granular series complements official statistics and fills data gaps during disruptions.
September Inflation Signal
- PriceStats' main index (excluding shelter) showed September monthly inflation around 0.27% and about 2.8% annualized.
- Adding rents and utilities raises the monthly estimate to ~0.36% and the annual rate slightly above 3%.