Private cryptocurrency has been around for 15 years. Institutional acceptance is here. Movement towards public, central bank-issued digital currencies (CBDCs), on the other hand, is proving more deliberate by design. The demand for safe, digital currencies is growing and the gains from efficiency look significant. But the accompanying risks are under-discussed. We fix that this week and speak with Antoinette Schoar, our academic partner and Professor of Finance at MIT’s Sloan School of Management. Antoinette has long tracked trends crypto markets and offers a thoughtful approach to the issue and adoption of CBDCs in the coming years.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The rise of the internet 25 years ago amplified information, in the process accelerating the deterioration of institutional structures around the world. Society has so far proven resilient but our abilities to construct and sustain guiding narratives are fraying. The implications for economics, politics and even markets are and will continue to be profound. Martin Gurri, former CIA analyst, author and visiting fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, joins the podcast for a thought-provoking discussion of his life's work on the intersection of media and politics, and the search for meaning in the age of information overload.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Beijing's latest round of economic stimulus includes a slew of measures to reignite demand and aid in the repair of household balance sheets. So far, the announcements are bold and appear forceful, and they have sparked a surge in risk markets sensitive to Chinese demand. But will words be matched by action and will the latest efforts to kick-start the Chinese economy be effective? This week, Yuting Shao from our Strategy Team in Hong Kong and Lauren Van Biljon, an emerging markets investor from Allspring Global Investments, join the podcast, unpacking what actions have been taken, which have the highest likelihood of success and where it leaves Chinese and emerging market assets over the long term.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Monetary and fiscal policymakers are pivoting to easing mode. In developed markets, the restrictive rate policies of the post-COVID period are reversing nearly everywhere. As importantly, China is engaging on multiple fronts to support demand in an economy still constrained by high debt burdens. It should all add up to a great environment for risk assets, right? Maybe, but as Michael Metcalfe, Head of Macro Strategy at State Street Global Markets points out, there are nuances. Drawing on a recently published research note, we discuss how, as Q4 begins, high expectations and divergent positioning across and within asset classes make for a less obvious opportunity set.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US Presidential election is six weeks away, polls are dead-locked and the most relevant questions for markets remain open. Which electoral barometers are of greatest relevance as Election Day approaches? Where are the post-election gaps in the two candidates' policy possibilities the widest? And which markets are most underpriced for the risks those gaps entail? Elliot Hentov, Head of Macro Policy Research at State Street Global Advisors, returns to the podcast with his unique and thought-provoking insights on all of those questions, and much more, as the countdown to November 5th rolls on.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Greedflation - companies exploiting a high inflation environment to raise prices relatively more than costs - has grabbed attention and headlines in economics commentary, but the evidence to prove definitively whether it took place on a wide scale in the post-COVID period is not conclusive. This week, we chat with our academic partner Alberto Cavallo, professor at Harvard Business School and co-founder of PriceStats, about a new working paper in which he and his co-authors take a deep dive into cost and pricing dynamics during the pandemic years. They employ unique data sets and analysis to determine whether, where and when excessive mark-ups on goods prices took place along the supply chains during the high inflation years of 2021-2023.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Experience in markets helps practitioners cope with the inevitable cyclicality of economic fundamentals and risk appetite. Combining the muscle memory of past cycles with new ideas and ways of thinking is crucial to lasting success. That's the lesson this week, as we talk to Chris Pizzotti, Global Head of FX Voice Trading at State Street Global Markets, about his formative experiences in trading and how they help him to think about the most pressing questions in markets today. Is volatility back for good or will it subside as quickly as it rose? How aggressive will the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and others be in signalling policy intentions this year? What does it all mean for the dollar, yen, rate markets and EM FX? All crucial questions for macro markets addressed on this week's episode. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets dealt well with volatility in early August and got a boost from the Federal Reserve’s dovish message in Jackson Hole at the end of the month. But September is known for seasonal weakness and is kicking off with worries over global growth and a question of whether anticipated monetary easing is enough to sustain gains in bonds and equities. With these challenges in mind, Marija Veitmane, our head of equity strategy, is back on the podcast to discuss optimal asset allocation strategies for the rest of 2024.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium starts tomorrow. It takes on added significance this year, with an easing cycle seen starting next month, in the wake of softer economic data and a bout of market volatility. This year’s forum focuses on the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Rising fears that the Fed is falling behind the curve and not easing quickly enough to ensure continuation of a soft economic landing would suggest that policy transmission has gone mostly as expected. Or has it? This week, Marvin Loh checks in with his thoughts on that question, as well as what message to expect, what actions the Fed and other central banks will ultimately take and when they might take them.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets are settling after a period of volatility, but questions remain about future stability. Key topics include four vital indicators that reveal investor behavior and inflation trends. Listeners get insights into the rotation between large and small cap stocks and ongoing tech stock fluctuations. The discussion also emphasizes the importance of analyzing institutional positioning to forecast market movements. As summer approaches, the implications for equity, rate, and FX markets are explored.