Street Signals

Cayla Seder, a senior strategist at State Street Global Markets, shares her insights on the tumultuous current state of the equity market, particularly within the tech sector. She discusses the fading optimism around US tech stocks, the impact of high interest rates, and potential overvaluation concerns. Cayla explores whether this is a moment for cautious investors to seize buying opportunities or a signal of a bubble about to pop. The conversation also touches on AI's growing energy requirements and its future implications for profitability in tech.

Ning Sun, a Senior Emerging Market Strategist at State Street Global Markets, delves into the often-ignored impacts of trade wars on developing economies. He discusses how U.S. tariffs could reshape Mexico's economy and the fears of foreign direct investment decline. The conversation includes the potential dangers for U.S. companies in Mexico and the semiconductor sector's vulnerability. Sun also highlights the geopolitical repercussions for Asian economies and the shifting dynamics in global partnerships, emphasizing the need for strategic foresight.

Financial markets cannot get a break from headlines. The Trump Administration is rolling out – and in some cases rolling back – trade tariffs at a frenzied pace. Negotiations over peace in Ukraine are only just beginning, with the shape of a resolution anyone’s guess. Fiscal policy is also front and center for bonds, with curbing deficits looking increasingly difficult as defense spending needs and the desire for growth-based policies rise. Ennui prevails as markets seem unwilling or unable to price for higher risk premia. To make sense of it, Peter Vincent, head of FX trading for EMEA at State Street Global Markets, shares his thoughts, walking through the best opportunities on offer.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ben Ashby, the CIO of Henderson Rowe, is a seasoned investment manager from London with a focus on cross-asset investing. He delves into how historical market trends influence today’s economy, highlighting the rhythm of interest rate cycles and equity valuations. Ashby discusses the challenges posed by AI and political uncertainty, as well as recent market fluctuations and tactical investment strategies. He also analyzes the complexities of the UK economy and offers insights into navigating currency volatility and finding investment opportunities in a shifting financial landscape.

Last week's emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI model promising transformative cost savings and strong performance relative to other large language models, posed a wide array of long-term questions. Does DeepSeek's emergence represent a game-changer for the industry? What geopolitical implications might it have? And, how impregnable are the moats around the existing, large competitors in the IT ecosystem? This week, to discuss these questions as well as the future of the AI industry, we are pleased to speak with Richard Windsor, founder and CEO of Radio Free Mobile, an independent research firm specializing in the digital and mobile ecosystem.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A tricky few weeks in markets are putting several of the consensus trades to the sword. As investors grapple with mixed signals and increasing bifurcation within the global economic outlook, politics and an emerging AI arms race are becoming more prominent in driving day-to-day shifts in returns and sentiment, making the long view all the more important. In this special roundtable edition of the podcast, we sit down with Simona Mocuta, Altaf Kassam and Jenn Bender from the research and strategy team at State Street Global Advisors, getting their perspective on the macroeconomy, their preferred asset allocation framework and the building blocks that go into a durable portfolio designed for the long-term.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the heels of another mediocre year for bonds, the first few weeks of 2025 have seen significant gyrations in fixed income markets. The policies of the new Trump administration speak to extended deficits and higher debt levels, bringing with them the prospect for a return of above-target inflation in the form of potential tariffs and reduced labor supply. Expectations for Federal Reserve activity are gyrating, with fewer rate cuts now expected. The tension between policy and markets has yet to break out into bond market vigilantism or sharply higher rate volatility. Whether that stasis lasts is another question. Marvin Loh, a senior strategist for State Street Global Markets focused on global rate markets, discusses the mix of these factors on the podcast this week.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Two weeks into the New Year, the economic and market outlook for 2025 is marked by uncertainty. Ron O’Hanley, Chairman and CEO of State Street, joins the podcast to offer his perspective at this critical moment. Ron and host Tim Graf walk through the uncertainties and interdependencies arising from geopolitics, US trade and immigration policy, and global fiscal policy. Discussions of the relationships between the United States and its largest trade partners and the more global trends of de-globalization and demographics feature. They detail which risks are most meaningful for markets and policymakers, and which may prove fleeting, before concluding with a discussion of State Street’s strategic opportunities in 2025.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The current market consensus sees equities higher, led by continued strength in the tech sector, interest rates staying at current, high levels or even rising further, and a stronger US dollar. But many of these views are already crowded and valuation challenges abound. On this week’s episode, host Tim Graf looks at where the behavioral and fundamental realities available from our proprietary indicators offer divergences from these views for stocks, bonds and FX, and where consensus thinking might fall short.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Just before Christmas, it is tradition for us to publish recommendations of the best things we've read, listened to or watched over the previous year. Common patterns often emerge and it is often the case that our choices are informed by our work analyzing macroeconomics and markets. But as you're about to hear, many of the choices have nothing to do with our day jobs. This year, we published our 11th edition of that list, available now on our Insights platform. This week's podcast is an audio summary of the document and a chance to bid you a very festive and happy holiday season, and wish you a Happy New Year!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.