Street Signals

This week, we recap the year just gone in macro markets, and get a preview of what’s to come in 2025, in a conversation with traders from the FX desk of State Street Global Markets in Boston. Bill Walsh, head of trading for the Americas, returns to Street Signals with thoughts on the developed, G10 markets, and we welcome Chris Wise, a senior Emerging Markets trader focused on Latin America, who brings his insights on developing economies and the challenges posed to them by Trump, tariffs and inflation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We head into year-end with our annual presentation of the best opportunities in markets for the New Year. Every December, members of our macro strategy team choose an idea they think has the best chance of success in the next year. Themes emerge from the commonalities and the talking points arise from the contrasts. For 2025, we actually see a more cohesive set of thoughts emerging from the process than usual. Host Tim Graf and the team draw it all together, with ideas in equities, fixed income and currencies, across developed and emerging markets, in this special edition of the podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After a year of range-bound behavior, fixed income and FX markets are trending. The catalyst? The anticipation and election of Donald Trump as US President, with confirmed Republican majorities in both Houses of Congress now thrown in for good measure. After seeing large re-pricings across asset classes and currencies over the last two months, how much of the news is in the price and which of the so-called Trump Trades are still worth pursuing? Returning to the podcast to answer those questions this week, as well as to offer some initial thoughts for 2025, we welcome back Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas at State Street Global Markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bridging the gap between financial theory and investment practice has been the hallmark of research at State Street for more than 25 years. So, we are lucky to speak to a pioneer in this endeavor this week. Sébastien Page, head of Global Multi Asset and Chief Investment Officer at T. Rowe Price, joins the podcast, walking us through insights gleaned from over two decades in finance, starting with reflections on his time at State Street. We dive into his research on portfolio construction, risk and asset allocation, before finishing with thoughts on the markets, as well as insights from his forthcoming book, The Psychology of Leadership.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The votes are cast and the results from the 2024 Election are rolling in. In-house election guru Noel Dixon joins Street Signals with his initial thoughts. What were the big surprises and what went as expected? And, given what we know so far, how should we think about the implications for stocks, bonds and the US Dollar over the medium to long term? All this and more on our special election reaction podcast!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Among all the other risks, next week’s US election and Federal Reserve meeting dominate the market outlook and look set to drive price action and volatility for the rest of 2024.  Debate is intensifying over whether the most appealing consensus views are already aligned with pricing for interest rates and FX and are now subject to disappointment. Fredrik Repton, a senior portfolio manager in fixed income and currencies at Neuberger Berman, joins the podcast, discussing his approach to risk management across markets ahead of and around a slew of key events.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Private cryptocurrency has been around for 15 years. Institutional acceptance is here. Movement towards public, central bank-issued digital currencies (CBDCs), on the other hand, is proving more deliberate by design. The demand for safe, digital currencies is growing and the gains from efficiency look significant. But the accompanying risks are under-discussed. We fix that this week and speak with Antoinette Schoar, our academic partner and Professor of Finance at MIT’s Sloan School of Management. Antoinette has long tracked trends crypto markets and offers a thoughtful approach to the issue and adoption of CBDCs in the coming years.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The rise of the internet 25 years ago amplified information, in the process accelerating the deterioration of institutional structures around the world. Society has so far proven resilient but our abilities to construct and sustain guiding narratives are fraying. The implications for economics, politics and even markets are and will continue to be profound. Martin Gurri, former CIA analyst, author and visiting fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, joins the podcast for a thought-provoking discussion of his life's work on the intersection of media and politics, and the search for meaning in the age of information overload.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Beijing's latest round of economic stimulus includes a slew of measures to reignite demand and aid in the repair of household balance sheets. So far, the announcements are bold and appear forceful, and they have sparked a surge in risk markets sensitive to Chinese demand. But will words be matched by action and will the latest efforts to kick-start the Chinese economy be effective? This week, Yuting Shao from our Strategy Team in Hong Kong and Lauren Van Biljon, an emerging markets investor from Allspring Global Investments, join the podcast, unpacking what actions have been taken, which have the highest likelihood of success and where it leaves Chinese and emerging market assets over the long term.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Monetary and fiscal policymakers are pivoting to easing mode. In developed markets, the restrictive rate policies of the post-COVID period are reversing nearly everywhere. As importantly, China is engaging on multiple fronts to support demand in an economy still constrained by high debt burdens. It should all add up to a great environment for risk assets, right? Maybe, but as Michael Metcalfe, Head of Macro Strategy at State Street Global Markets points out, there are nuances. Drawing on a recently published research note, we discuss how, as Q4 begins, high expectations and divergent positioning across and within asset classes make for a less obvious opportunity set.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.