This week, we kick off a series of podcasts recorded at or on the sidelines of our 2024 Research Retreats, taking place across North America, Europe and Asia over the next four weeks. And we do so live, without a net, for the very first time, and in front of an audience to boot. Three members of the Macro Strategy Team at State Street Global Markets present their top picks for how to play markets over the rest of the year. Dan Gerard, Marvin Loh and Ning Sun make their respective cases to the audience in a rapid-fire, Shark Tank-style presentation, with ideas as wide-ranging as how to think about US Financials, the US yield curve and the state of Emerging Market FX carry trades.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China and India contribute more than a third to global population, but still only account for a quarter of global output. So, as their economies mature and their markets open more to outside investment, their respective growth and inflation stories increasingly matter for global investors. Flow dynamics are of particular interest, given the equity markets in both economies have been underinvested in for years. And, with the Chinese renminbi a low-yielding currency and the Indian rupee a high-yielder, many of most popular and profitable carry trading strategies in FX markets over the last 18 months hinge on the path these two currencies take. This week, we take a deep dive into the world's second and fifth-largest economies, with a special focus on the forthcoming Indian election results and their impact, with the help of four of our Macro Strategy and Trading colleagues in the region.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets are back to all-time highs and volatility is normalizing, with the rate outlook for the remainder of the year coming into clearer focus. Is it too much of a good thing? Who better to ask than bond market guru, the creator of the MOVE index of implied interest rate volatility and managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, Harley Bassman. This week's conversation explores the Fed's easing cycle, the shift in policymakers' focus from inflation to the labor market and the overlooked importance of demographics. Harley also talks through the creation of the MOVE index, the implications that his view on rate volatility has for mortgage backed securities and why investors should avoid credit and duration risks. Check out Harley on Twitter, @ConvexityMaven, and at convexitymaven.com.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dynamics in today's currency markets are informed by historic events and trends that shaped the structure and of the global economy. Building on a lifetime of experience in formulating currency policy at the US Department of the Treasury and as US representative to the IMF, Mark Sobel, US Chairman at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), joins the podcast to discuss many of the most far-reaching and relevant themes driving FX markets today. He details his thinking on the potential success of ongoing intervention in the Japanese yen, the centrality of the US dollar in trade and global finance and the history and current themes of RMB valuation and currency diplomacy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Outside of the Magnificent 7 tech stocks, profit warnings and unsettling forward guidance through Q1 earnings season have sparked a re-assessment of demand resilience. Commentary from consumer-oriented firms about waning pricing power and tighter margins looks troubling. Marija Veitmane, our head of equity strategy, returns with her take on a bifurcated earnings environment, where tech still trumps all but the outlook for consumer stocks, banks and sector rotation strategies is murkier. Peter Vincent, head of Trading in EMEA, is also back, with his macro spin on consumer and labor market trends, and where he sees rate markets and currencies in the coming months.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this podcast, the discussion revolves around the search for safe havens in the midst of market volatility. Topics include the effectiveness of traditional safe havens, the challenges of selecting a suitable safe haven, the performance of US Treasuries, the dollar, and yen, and insights on which assets are currently appealing. Guest expert Fred Goodwin provides valuable insights on safe haven currencies and the intricacies of navigating safe assets.

Lee Ferridge returns to the podcast to give his latest take on FX, interest rate and risk markets. Ever the road warrior, we focus first on the consensus and conviction calls from the dozens of client meetings Lee has done in recent weeks, before tackling the questions we are all contemplating in macro markets could the Fed's next move actually be a hike? Can the risk rally resume if that's the case? Is there any room for further rate divergence across G10? Long or short JPY? Is the carry trade over? It all gets answered this week.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US labor market and consumer continue to defy expectations of slowing, yet we are encouraged to believe that monetary policy is in restrictive territory. Why is that? On this week's podcast, we are thrilled to speak to Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist of New Century Advisers, founder of Sahm Consulting and developer of the renowned 'Sahm Rule', a widely observed and often misunderstood recession indicator. The conversation covers the forces driving the resilient consumer, how labor shortages and wage growth issues are being resolved, the most persistent drivers of US inflation and what it all means for future Federal Reserve policy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Similar to Japan in the 1990s, China faces twin headwinds of excessive debt deleveraging and demographic deterioration, with the addition of a multi-year pandemic and its aftermath making these already considerable burdens even more challenging. Can the world's once-reliable engine for growth avoid a similar fate of disinflation and relative decline? The hurdles are high but the comparison is not entirely apples-to-apples. China's fate is not sealed, possessing key advantages in rebuilding their post-COVID economy. Ramu Thiagarajan, a senior investment advisor for State Street, and Yuting Shao, one of our emerging market strategists in Asia, join the podcast to discuss a recent paper outlining the steps China will likely need to consider in sidestepping the looming threats of debt and deflation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It was a great first quarter for risky assets and carry trades, perhaps surprisingly, given recent economic data and events have actually offered a few surprises. Yet rotation within equity markets and the stability of relative rate expectations kept volatility at bay. After a rockier first few days, will Q2 offer a change in sentiment? This week, we welcome Bill Walsh, head of our FX trading desk in the Americas, back to the podcast to offer his thoughts on a wide array of topics. Inflation, the Federal Reserve, volatility, the direction of the dollar and where both funding and risky currencies sit - they all get special attention on this whirlwind tour of the risk complex.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.