Street Signals

The podcast discusses potential surprises in the market for 2024. Topics include the probability of a US recession, drivers of a recession, the reliability of yield curves as indicators, easing policy to prevent tightening, valuation of the yen, and institutional response to market conditions.

The first few weeks of 2024 see interest rate markets in flux, assessing and re-assessing the extent of forthcoming policy easing cycles from the world's major central banks. Crucial to the outlook for rates is the likelihood of each achieving the hallowed soft landing - a normalization of inflation with minimal hiccups from a weaker labor market or below trend growth. Some economies stand a better chance than others achieving this outcome. In this context, Simona Mocuta, chief economist for State Street Global Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss where that potential most likely lies.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Volatility has been subdued to start the year, but geopolitical risks are on the rise. We have yet to see the turmoil and unrest in the news have any strong effects on markets, yet it has the feel of calm before a potential storm. Elections in Taiwan, recurrence of violence in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine all carry implications for great power competition as well as economies and asset markets. The US election season, kicking off earlier this week in Iowa, should do the same. Mark Rosenberg, co-founder and CEO of GeoQuant, is back with us to make sense of it all.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Street Signals returns from a brief winter hibernation, with the first two weeks of the New Year offering plenty of food for thought. Dan Gerard is back with us to discuss how the consensus views formed at the end of 2023 are already being challenged and we focus on what stands out as most relevant from our own research and indicators to help contribute to this discussion. So far, the trends of late last year are still intact, but new wrinkles to challenge their continuation are emerging.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this podcast, the hosts discuss their favorite reads of 2023, including books on the changing world order, empires, women's equity, demographic shifts, inequality, and historical fiction. They provide book recommendations ranging from dark comedy to thrilling plots, and conclude the episode with gratitude and information about their web portal and research.

Following on the heels of our top trades in equities, rates and FX, this week Street Signals brings a broader discussion of the biggest questions for financial markets in the coming months. Is global growth set to slow dramatically or are expectations now too low? What does that mean for risk markets? Will geopolitics have a greater influence in 2024 than they did this year? Dwyfor Evans, Lee Ferridge and Marija Veitmane join the podcast to talk things through.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this special edition, the podcast focuses on trade ideas for 2024. They discuss minimizing regret in investing, potential yield in a business cycle slowdown, and the outperformance of US tech stocks. It also explores challenges in Canada's mortgage market, trade ideas like shorting JGBs and investing in emerging markets, and the performance change of European industrials. Disclaimer: not investment advice.

2023 has been a most unusual year. Despite significant stress in the US banking system early in the year, an ongoing war in Europe, a new war in the Middle East and gyrations in rate markets, volatility has fallen from last year's highs, back to range lows. This week, we are pleased to welcome our head of Global Markets, Tony Bisegna, to Street Signals to discuss why 2023 seemed more quiet, whether that calm will extend into next year and if the major economies can avoid recession for another year, with outlooks for equities, fixed income and currencies offered along the way.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Despite protests from central banks that the fight against inflation is not yet won, expectations for easing next year are building and being pulled forward. Timing these turns in markets is tough but the moves in rates are coming just as measures of central bank coverage tone, produced by State Street in a partnership with MKT MediaStats, are turning similarly dovish. MediaStats co-founder Gideon Ozik sits down with us to discuss the construction and message from these metrics, as well as how advances in AI are helping to improve the predictive power of large data sets and what the AI revolution means more generally for market analysis.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Guests Michael Metcalfe and Peter Vincent discuss the calmness in currency markets despite ongoing global uncertainties. They explore topics such as cross-country basis, cash holdings, mortgage structures, Eurozone rates, US economy, US election effects, and fiscal sustainability. The podcast also mentions a break announcement and a web portal for research on macroeconomics and markets.