Street Signals

Outside of the Magnificent 7 tech stocks, profit warnings and unsettling forward guidance through Q1 earnings season have sparked a re-assessment of demand resilience. Commentary from consumer-oriented firms about waning pricing power and tighter margins looks troubling. Marija Veitmane, our head of equity strategy, returns with her take on a bifurcated earnings environment, where tech still trumps all but the outlook for consumer stocks, banks and sector rotation strategies is murkier. Peter Vincent, head of Trading in EMEA, is also back, with his macro spin on consumer and labor market trends, and where he sees rate markets and currencies in the coming months.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this podcast, the discussion revolves around the search for safe havens in the midst of market volatility. Topics include the effectiveness of traditional safe havens, the challenges of selecting a suitable safe haven, the performance of US Treasuries, the dollar, and yen, and insights on which assets are currently appealing. Guest expert Fred Goodwin provides valuable insights on safe haven currencies and the intricacies of navigating safe assets.

Lee Ferridge returns to the podcast to give his latest take on FX, interest rate and risk markets. Ever the road warrior, we focus first on the consensus and conviction calls from the dozens of client meetings Lee has done in recent weeks, before tackling the questions we are all contemplating in macro markets could the Fed's next move actually be a hike? Can the risk rally resume if that's the case? Is there any room for further rate divergence across G10? Long or short JPY? Is the carry trade over? It all gets answered this week.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US labor market and consumer continue to defy expectations of slowing, yet we are encouraged to believe that monetary policy is in restrictive territory. Why is that? On this week's podcast, we are thrilled to speak to Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist of New Century Advisers, founder of Sahm Consulting and developer of the renowned 'Sahm Rule', a widely observed and often misunderstood recession indicator. The conversation covers the forces driving the resilient consumer, how labor shortages and wage growth issues are being resolved, the most persistent drivers of US inflation and what it all means for future Federal Reserve policy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Similar to Japan in the 1990s, China faces twin headwinds of excessive debt deleveraging and demographic deterioration, with the addition of a multi-year pandemic and its aftermath making these already considerable burdens even more challenging. Can the world's once-reliable engine for growth avoid a similar fate of disinflation and relative decline? The hurdles are high but the comparison is not entirely apples-to-apples. China's fate is not sealed, possessing key advantages in rebuilding their post-COVID economy. Ramu Thiagarajan, a senior investment advisor for State Street, and Yuting Shao, one of our emerging market strategists in Asia, join the podcast to discuss a recent paper outlining the steps China will likely need to consider in sidestepping the looming threats of debt and deflation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It was a great first quarter for risky assets and carry trades, perhaps surprisingly, given recent economic data and events have actually offered a few surprises. Yet rotation within equity markets and the stability of relative rate expectations kept volatility at bay. After a rockier first few days, will Q2 offer a change in sentiment? This week, we welcome Bill Walsh, head of our FX trading desk in the Americas, back to the podcast to offer his thoughts on a wide array of topics. Inflation, the Federal Reserve, volatility, the direction of the dollar and where both funding and risky currencies sit - they all get special attention on this whirlwind tour of the risk complex.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A turn higher in inflation carries with it the potential to disrupt the current easing plans of central banks and create volatility, in similar fashion to the market upsets that recurred throughout 2022. The evidence in the official data is mixed, and this week, we have a genuine expert to help us answer the question of whether inflation, having cooled somewhat, is in danger of rising once more. Alberto Cavallo, professor at Harvard Business School and co-founder of PriceStats, one of our research partners, is back with us. We discuss whether and where inflation risks are rising and what implications that carries for monetary policymakers who otherwise plan to begin lowering rates around the middle of this year.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Exploring the current landscape of low FX volatility and carry trading strategies, with a focus on market dynamics, risks, and potential trade ideas. Insights on G10 currencies, emerging markets, stagflation risks, and a strategic trade proposal involving the Dollar Swiss.

Last October, we did an episode asking whether it was a good time to buy bonds answering, 'Yes, it probably was', with the release date marking the 16 year high in US Treasury yields. Talk about good timing. But after a 10% gain into year end, the last two months have been more challenging for global fixed income. Resilient data in the US and elsewhere have deferred expectations for easing in the large developed economies. Equities have loved the good news but the best you can say for bonds is that returns year to date are flat. Marvin Loh is back on the podcast this week to take another look, focusing on how much longer monetary policy needs to be restrictive, whether any of the cracks seen so far in commercial real estate and at regional banks should worry us, what to expect from the Federal Reserve meeting next week and whether this is, indeed, still a good time to buy bonds.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With decades of experience as an FX trader, portfolio manager and writer, Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, is an ideal guest for a period when currency markets are quiet, range-bound and looking for inspiration. We walk through his career path, particularly how he has adapted to changing market regimes and worked to counteract behavioral biases over the years. And, with central bank policy still the dominant factor in the market mindset, driving activity over short and long term horizons, we conclude with Brent's current thoughts on interest rate market pricing, volatility and what it means for the near-term direction of currencies. Check Brent out on Twitter (@donnelly_brent) and on his Substack.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.