Street Signals

The Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium starts tomorrow. It takes on added significance this year, with an easing cycle seen starting next month, in the wake of softer economic data and a bout of market volatility. This year’s forum focuses on the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Rising fears that the Fed is falling behind the curve and not easing quickly enough to ensure continuation of a soft economic landing would suggest that policy transmission has gone mostly as expected. Or has it? This week, Marvin Loh checks in with his thoughts on that question, as well as what message to expect, what actions the Fed and other central banks will ultimately take and when they might take them.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets are settling after a period of volatility, but questions remain about future stability. Key topics include four vital indicators that reveal investor behavior and inflation trends. Listeners get insights into the rotation between large and small cap stocks and ongoing tech stock fluctuations. The discussion also emphasizes the importance of analyzing institutional positioning to forecast market movements. As summer approaches, the implications for equity, rate, and FX markets are explored.

The volatility of the last two weeks can be ascribed to many events and raises more questions than answers. Was it a clear-out of crowded positions in illiquid summer markets or the early stage of a systemic financial event? Is the US economy’s soft landing still on track? Will recent moves in equities, rates and FX now reverse or form new trends? Peter Vincent, our head trading in London, joins the podcast to try and answer those questions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Quiet summer markets were disrupted recently by sharp moves in equities, as the long-standing strength of IT and communication stocks gave way to a surge in valuations for smaller companies. Such price action can be healthy. But where past episodes of market rotation came in a rising market, as volatility fell, the recent rotation in stocks came with wider ranges, higher volatility and a retreat in overall market performance. With stocks still close to all-time highs, we ask Cayla Seder from our Equity Strategy team in the Americas whether this is merely a healthy correction or the start of a worrying trend.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Summer lulls in market activity are common, but this year's calm is unique. Interest rate, FX and volatility markets are rangebound despite jarring headlines and upheavals in politics, and the potential for binary market outcomes in response. The search for high conviction views seems more difficult than normal. That makes it a good time to get the perspective from someone with a day job of managing risk. This week, we speak with Dan Mazza, head of our US FX forwards desk, on where he sees interest rate and currency markets potentially underpriced for the uncertainties ahead.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of 2023, attractive yields and valuations on emerging market assets and currencies made for many consensus long calls from sell-side strategists. Many of those views played out for much of the first half of 2024. And even some of the political and electoral obstacles to performance proved to be short lived, such is the institutional credibility that has strengthened in many developing economies over the last ten years. Dwyfor Evans, our head of emerging markets strategy, joins the podcast this week to offer thoughts on how EM has built a degree of resilience and whether the stability seen so far this year can continue.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Trends in US inflation have been, are and will be one of the critical drivers of markets. After a bumpy first quarter, fears of an inflationary spiral are cooling once more and, with the US labor market also showing signs of softness, the Federal Reserve sounds increasingly ready to ease policy as a consequence. But election year politics and stubbornly volatile consumer inflation expectations complicate matters. This week - on US CPI day of all days - Michael Metcalfe, our global head of macro strategy, returns to the podcast to talk through the inflation picture, leveraging insights from our research partner, PriceStats, offering an outlook for how to think about inflation in the short, medium and long terms.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Toby Nangle, an independent analyst, discusses how higher yields are changing asset allocation strategies, specifically in UK pensions. He explores the impact of political events and market movements on UK assets and the pound, offering insights on optimizing investments and navigating the evolving investment landscape.

This evening's Presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump kick starts a campaign season that, so far, has been a formality and failed to spark much attention in either the electorate or the market. Polling margins between the candidates are razor thin and many of the usual rules of thumb to forecast elections don't seem to apply anymore. To help us unpack the narrative and offer insights drawn from years of political analysis, we were fortunate enough to host our newest research partner, Dan Drezner, professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, at our recent Research Retreats in Boston and London. This week's podcast draws on material from his prepared remarks and the Q&A at the London event.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After 14 years of Conservative government, the upcoming UK General Election on 4 July will bring seismic change. From both the left and the right, the Conservatives now face a threat. The Labour Party look likely to win a large majority and form a government, but are constrained in their ambitions by fiscal realities. What does it mean for the UK economy and markets? Helen Thomas, Founder and CEO of Blonde Money, joins us with a fascinating and comprehensive overview of how we got here, why the Conservatives find themselves in crisis, what opportunities are on the table for a potential new Labour government and how gilts and the pound might fare in the coming months.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.